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> Tropical Storm Philippe, 10/29 5AM EDT - 45 MPH - 1000 MB - Movement: ENE @ 17mph
Ron in Miami
post Oct 23 2017, 08:39 PM
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Nhc activated 93L for the Caribbean AOI.

AL, 93, 2017102400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 830W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ,


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Oct 29 2017, 05:22 AM
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MaineJay
post Oct 24 2017, 04:52 AM
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GOES16
Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


You can see several mesoscale vortices along the Honduras/Nicaragua coasts within a larger, more general "circulation".

Attached Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.htm...7&id=INVEST


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MikeySed
post Oct 24 2017, 05:07 PM
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On Friday, I set sail on a Celebrity Cruise ship out of Miami heading toward Grand Cayman.

Odds we go the other way around Cuba?

Here is the itinerary:



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MaineJay
post Oct 25 2017, 04:51 AM
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QUOTE(MikeySed @ Oct 24 2017, 06:07 PM) *
On Friday, I set sail on a Celebrity Cruise ship out of Miami heading toward Grand Cayman.

Odds we go the other way around Cuba?

Here is the itinerary:

Have fun! I hope that they do go east of Cuba for your sake. The west side looks a but bumpy...

Attached Image


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MikeySed
post Oct 26 2017, 11:36 AM
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Any new updates anyone can provide? I am leaving at 5pm for Miami, then tomorrow the ship departs.


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KENNYP2339
post Oct 26 2017, 12:17 PM
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QUOTE(MikeySed @ Oct 26 2017, 12:36 PM) *
Any new updates anyone can provide? I am leaving at 5pm for Miami, then tomorrow the ship departs.

LOL - your always asking for updates or how much snow in your back yard, bring a rain jacket
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MikeySed
post Oct 26 2017, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Oct 26 2017, 12:17 PM) *
LOL - your always asking for updates or how much snow in your back yard, bring a rain jacket

Isn't that what forums are for - conversation, information, etc.? Just the jacket or rain boots too? wink.gif laugh.gif

BTW One of my best friends is right by the lake in Highland Lakes - Ocala Road, you are probably close by. We went to Oktoberfest at Mtn Creek and it was 90 that day, yet at his house cause of elevation it dropped as we got closer to like 78 degrees. Was pretty crazy.

This post has been edited by MikeySed: Oct 26 2017, 01:40 PM


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Ron in Miami
post Oct 27 2017, 08:15 AM
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Getting some live action from 93L, up to 60/60 now. Looks to bring some heavy rain over Cuba, SoFlo, and the Bahamas this weekend. Sucks for me though, roof still leaking from Irma X_x
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 27 2017, 01:16 PM
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Live action! 80/80 now, maybe a TD or TS by later tonight. HH en route to check it out right now.
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Phased Vort
post Oct 27 2017, 02:49 PM
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This tropical development may become a very complex system the northern Mid Atlantic and New England.

Will be very nice to observe and track.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 27 2017, 04:20 PM
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BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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tool483
post Oct 27 2017, 07:38 PM
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psycodelic cloudtop view from the goes16

Goes16

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This post has been edited by tool483: Oct 27 2017, 07:39 PM


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Phased Vort
post Oct 27 2017, 10:10 PM
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NHC STP server lists this one as a TS storm.

May be updated on the NHC site on the next advisory.

That would be Philippe.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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MaineJay
post Oct 28 2017, 03:39 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 27 2017, 11:10 PM) *
NHC STP server lists this one as a TS storm.

May be updated on the NHC site on the next advisory.

That would be Philippe.



UKie says come to Maine young Philippe.

Attached Image


Looks healthy and pulling north.

Attached Image
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 28 2017, 05:42 AM
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I think the NHC dropped the ball by not issuing a watch for south FL. With the approach of the front timing will be close and we could see TS conditions here later today and over night. This is a large and sloppy system too, I think it's going to catch people off guard.

Guess we'll see what happens later today, fingers crossed it isn't that bad. Local weather has stated we have a chance of tornadoes today. We had nado warnings left and right with Irma, so not fun X_x
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 28 2017, 05:57 AM
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You would think with the approach of a cold front, and a merging tropical low the winds could potentially be TD or TS force over SoFL. The over night and 6z models show the LLC close or touching our area.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Oct 28 2017, 05:58 AM
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Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Oct 28 2017, 01:22 PM
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Models say this could become a hurricane for a quick minute off the Carolina coast. We'll see.
Right now in Miami it's just rain, but some wind could show up tonight.
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stxprowl
post Oct 28 2017, 04:01 PM
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents
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MaineJay
post Oct 28 2017, 04:22 PM
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UKmet ensembles

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ECMWF ensembles

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Oct 28 2017, 04:22 PM


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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longislander
post Oct 28 2017, 05:20 PM
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Media now hyping this as the "next Sandy". We shall see.
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