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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
StL weatherjunki...
post Yesterday, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 21 2017, 04:43 PM) *
Few things in life are a guarantee, but I can guarantee that this winter will be quite different than the last. First and foremost, it's very unlikely that California has another record setting precip year.

The La Nina is stronger so the fire hose of moisture should land farther north than California along the west coast. As of this moment in time, my best bet is British Columbia in December and the Pac NW in Jan/Feb.

This has important implications across the US with a more positive PNA early in the season and a more negative PNA later in the season. Therefore, December into January is likely the best time frame for eastern snow interests. Plus, March/April are always a wild card irrespective of what happens during the winter season.

I wanted to put some visuals with my words.

The season as a whole will quite likely be warmer than normal across the US:
Attached File  DJF99_00_500mb.gif ( 15.04K ) Number of downloads: 1


The month by month breakdown does give a couple shreds of hope in the Dec/Jan time frame though:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Dec99_500mb.gif ( 13.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  Jan00_500mb.gif ( 14.91K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  Feb00_500mb.gif ( 17.61K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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snowgeek93
post Yesterday, 04:11 PM
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Moderate La Nina's are usually a goldmine for my area (Southern Ontario) but that 1999-2000 analog does not bode well for my region if it comes true. That was a pretty lame season across the great lakes region. I'd even take last year over that winter any day.


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Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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grace
post Yesterday, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 21 2017, 03:59 PM) *
I wanted to put some visuals with my words.

The season as a whole will quite likely be warmer than normal across the US:
Attached File  DJF99_00_500mb.gif ( 15.04K ) Number of downloads: 1


The month by month breakdown does give a couple shreds of hope in the Dec/Jan time frame though:



Keep in mind 1999-2000 had a +QBO. This winter likely moderate to strongly - QBO. Unlikely to have the same outcome.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Yesterday, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 21 2017, 05:49 PM) *
Keep in mind 1999-2000 had a +QBO. This winter likely moderate to strongly - QBO. Unlikely to have the same outcome.

ENSO >>>>>>> QBO

QBO is a stratospheric phenomena meaning it's poorly understood.

ENSO is THE dominant mode of interannual climate variability.

Also, never did I say that it would be the same outcome. Just similar.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Yesterday, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Sep 21 2017, 05:11 PM) *
Moderate La Nina's are usually a goldmine for my area (Southern Ontario) but that 1999-2000 analog does not bode well for my region if it comes true. That was a pretty lame season across the great lakes region. I'd even take last year over that winter any day.

Southern Ontario is far enough north that warmer than normal temperature could still mean lots of snow.

Not saying that will happen, but something to keep in mind.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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grace
post Yesterday, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 21 2017, 06:34 PM) *
ENSO >>>>>>> QBO

QBO is a stratospheric phenomena meaning it's poorly understood.

ENSO is THE dominant mode of interannual climate variability.

Also, never did I say that it would be the same outcome. Just similar.



Compare all the +QBO Nina years versus the -QBO Nina years. Understood well or not, it makes a difference. For the most part the -QBO years are more accompanied with SSW's & colder chances.

2011-12 had a massive SSW that flooded Eurasia with deadly cold. Still warm chances in the east likely but a SSW in late DEC can definitely a game change...see JAN 1985 Arctic plunge.

So while I agree with warm chances don't underestimate cold chances with- QBO.
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StormTracker
post Today, 06:00 AM
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Hi guys! Iím back! What have I missed?
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StL weatherjunki...
post Today, 07:32 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 21 2017, 09:34 PM) *
Compare all the +QBO Nina years versus the -QBO Nina years. Understood well or not, it makes a difference. For the most part the -QBO years are more accompanied with SSW's & colder chances.

2011-12 had a massive SSW that flooded Eurasia with deadly cold. Still warm chances in the east likely but a SSW in late DEC can definitely a game change...see JAN 1985 Arctic plunge.

So while I agree with warm chances don't underestimate cold chances with- QBO.

I have no don't that there's a difference. However, I feel the position and magnitude of SSTAs associated with ENSO has a much larger and more predictable influence on US weather than the QBO.

I'm not going to alter an entire seasonal forecast on the potential of SSWs. SSWs are more along the lines of weather events than they are climate events so they aren't particularly meaningful at the seasonal scale. Also, like you said the SSW could end up impacting Europe or Asia, which wouldn't benefit either of us.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Today, 09:04 AM
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Out of curiosity I did a climatologic analysis of snowfall in Pittsburgh as it's the closest station to my new location with a long period of record. I wanted to know if there was a discernible trend in snowfall, which can be assumed to be linked with climate change.

Overall results of this little endeavor indicate annual snowfall is increasing in Pittsburgh by about 0.11" per year over the 1880-2016 period of record.

Attached File  Pittsburgh_Snowfall.png ( 91.87K ) Number of downloads: 2


The monthly breakdown indicates the greatest increases (~0.04"/yr) during both January and February. December snowfall is essentially status quo and March has a slight positive trend, but there is lots of year-to-year variability. Both November and April indicate slight decreasing trends.

With all that said, I'm banking on January IMBY this winter.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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Ahoff
post Today, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 22 2017, 10:04 AM) *
Out of curiosity I did a climatologic analysis of snowfall in Pittsburgh as it's the closest station to my new location with a long period of record. I wanted to know if there was a discernible trend in snowfall, which can be assumed to be linked with climate change.

Overall results of this little endeavor indicate annual snowfall is increasing in Pittsburgh by about 0.11" per year over the 1880-2016 period of record.

Attached File  Pittsburgh_Snowfall.png ( 91.87K ) Number of downloads: 2


The monthly breakdown indicates the greatest increases (~0.04"/yr) during both January and February. December snowfall is essentially status quo and March has a slight positive trend, but there is lots of year-to-year variability. Both November and April indicate slight decreasing trends.

With all that said, I'm banking on January IMBY this winter.


Interesting, especially since I'm from Pittsburgh.

Hoping for a better winter than last, doesn't need to be a blockbuster, just at least average.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Today, 12:51 PM
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Disappointed to lose the prestige of blizzard watch sad.gif
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Attached File  FB_IMG_1506102491335.jpg ( 106.83K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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StL weatherjunki...
post Today, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 22 2017, 01:51 PM) *
Disappointed to lose the prestige of blizzard watch sad.gif

I think this is a good change given that I've been under a blizzard watch/warning about 10 times in my life and I can only say I've actually seen blizzard conditions 2 of those times.

Yeah, I suppose the prestige is lost, but for common folk the prestige you speak of is really just hype and hysteria.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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