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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
OSNW3
post Mar 12 2018, 11:00 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Mar 12 2018, 06:51 AM) *
[attachment=352262:ECMWF_Mo...bits__1_.png]

[attachment=352263:RRWT___C...nt_Chaos.png]


If I interpret the images, the Euro extended East Asia Rule has a system that when connected to the US could put down a sizable amount of precipitation in the lower Mississippi River region per RRWT 16-20d footprint. Certainly a plausible match based on the EAR and RRWT references provided.

EDIT: Zoomed in maps of the RRWT outlook.



Tweet: https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/973225935897014272

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Mar 12 2018, 11:01 AM


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jdrenken
post Mar 28 2018, 01:57 PM
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Gary Lezak finally got the LRC, or Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, published. Have a gander.


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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OSNW3
post Mar 29 2018, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 28 2018, 12:57 PM) *
Gary Lezak finally got the LRC, or Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, published. Have a gander.


I have worked with Gary in the past. After investigating the LRC for many years I stumbled onto the current methods of the RRWT through Scott Metsker, a past LRC Weather partner with Gary. I have read the paper and I am excited that Gary is published.

A quick take from the paper and connecting the RRWT;

The "cycling feature" as Gary describes with the LRC is likely the BeOP interval of the RRWT. The "cycle length" of the LRC is likely both or the range of the GAxA and RAxD RRWT intervals. When the RRWT M15D interval in is in high frequency mode, this is likely Gary's "mini-cycles" or harmonics he discusses...

Fun stuff. Thanks for sharing.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Apr 15 2018, 04:45 PM
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Maybe a potential of a strong system towards the first of May .The SOI just recently has made some wild swings.The BSR maps would look like the potential of a more occluded system though.But there is a system on the Euro that would fit this time frame coming through Asia
Attached File  SOI_Dashboard___LongPaddock___Queensland_Government.png ( 23.38K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  18_0503_00_gif__800_509_.png ( 222.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Apr 16 2018, 01:35 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  14.png ( 371.5K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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OSNW3
post Apr 23 2018, 06:29 AM
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Sometimes the BSR extension via the RRWT and CPC 6-10d analogs leads are a close match, sometimes they are not.



http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html


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jdrenken
post May 5 2018, 05:53 PM
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It's official! The SOI research has been accepted for #NWAS18 annual meeting!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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OSNW3
post May 7 2018, 08:44 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 5 2018, 05:53 PM) *
It's official! The SOI research has been accepted for #NWAS18 annual meeting!


That is exciting news for you. Enjoy the meeting!


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OSNW3
post May 7 2018, 08:46 AM
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The RRWT 6-10d extended BSR outlook from 4/17 for 5/11-15 is looking to be generally on track per the 00z EPS. We shall see!


http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html


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Mid Tn. Man
post May 8 2018, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 5 2018, 05:53 PM) *
It's official! The SOI research has been accepted for #NWAS18 annual meeting!



Congrats !!


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Mid Tn. Man
post May 8 2018, 10:33 PM
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The latest NMME is fairly close for the month of June with the RRWT,precip wise

Attached File  2.png ( 71.61K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  RRWT___Consonant_Chaos.png ( 101.15K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: May 8 2018, 10:34 PM


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OSNW3
post May 18 2018, 08:26 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ May 8 2018, 10:33 PM) *
The latest NMME is fairly close for the month of June with the RRWT,precip wise

Attached File  2.png ( 71.61K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  RRWT___Consonant_Chaos.png ( 101.15K ) Number of downloads: 3


I noticed an intense period of rainfall in the 31-35d is signaled for TN.


http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 1 2018, 05:36 PM
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Nice

Attached File  1.png ( 107.07K ) Number of downloads: 2




The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates below median precipitation is most likely over a large area of the western and central CONUS, from Oregon and northern California across the central Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains, under a predicted ridge. Equal chances is indicated in climatologically arid regions of the Desert Southwest, where little precipitation is expected in the Week 3-4 period. Some models, such as the NCEP CFS, indicate the potential for some precipitation in parts of this region, although this forecast is somewhat uncertain. Above median precipitation is most likely for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the interior Southeast, where dynamical model forecasts,[b] including the ECMWF, CFS, JMA, and SubX MME, indicate enhanced atmospheric moisture flow from the tropics, including the potential for tropical storm activity.[/b] Above median precipitation is likely for much of western Alaska, east of the trough predicted by most dynamical model forecasts.

Kept looking at the maps for the past few days and wondering if tropical genesis could happen during this time,we'll see

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Jun 1 2018, 05:41 PM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 1 2018, 09:01 PM
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There is also hints of the MJO and a recurving typhoon into Asia,which would really make the long range interesting

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Jun 1 2018, 09:04 PM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 3 2018, 04:20 AM
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Definite wet pattern upcoming into AsiaAttached File  33.png ( 375.42K ) Number of downloads: 0




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OSNW3
post Jun 18 2018, 11:58 AM
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For the Bering Sea Rule fans out there. I have added forecast verification to the http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html site and the Bering Sea Rule verification portion is automated and updating daily. Check it out. smile.gif

Attached File  bsr_verification_18598_image003.gif ( 19.84K ) Number of downloads: 2

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/1006863487505707008



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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 29 2018, 11:23 PM
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Looks like maybe an active period upcoming similar to 6/16-20 on your maps towards the 2nd-3rd week of July maybe,your maps were slightly off the days for the rains in the Tn Valley but the guidance still was still there.CFS has been hinting at a active KW into the Mid month this would lead into some potential tropical genesis into the GOM if it were to be right by your maps and the CFS.The weeklies do even as well hint at this.Attached File  11.png ( 255.03K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  RRWT___Consonant_Chaos.png ( 110.71K ) Number of downloads: 3





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OSNW3
post Jul 16 2018, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jun 29 2018, 11:23 PM) *
Looks like maybe an active period upcoming similar to 6/16-20 on your maps towards the 2nd-3rd week of July maybe,your maps were slightly off the days for the rains in the Tn Valley but the guidance still was still there.CFS has been hinting at a active KW into the Mid month this would lead into some potential tropical genesis into the GOM if it were to be right by your maps and the CFS.The weeklies do even as well hint at this.Attached File  11.png ( 255.03K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  RRWT___Consonant_Chaos.png ( 110.71K ) Number of downloads: 3


Looks like the RRWT missed the Southwest Monsoon moisture surge...

Attached File  gfs_apcpn_us_24.png ( 161.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Jul 16 2018, 10:00 AM


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