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> Stratospheric/ Ozone Information and Discussion 2017/18, Daily PV talk and model discussion
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 3 2018, 01:54 AM
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So the Euro from the second is showing some pretty interesting stuff happening at 10hPa but kinda blehs the idea out about midway through the run. Interesting sign though for possibly down the road as we may see a repeat of the pattern coming up. But might translate similar from about mid december on starting around mid month. 9-13th is an interesting time period for the U.S. to see what the change may be if we indeed go warmer or we stay cold for awhile. After that 20th looks like another time period of change but really depends on MJO and progression and amplitude during the spike does it connect better as we near or are we going to stay noticeable.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/stra...tics/index.html


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 14 2018, 05:13 PM
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Quite the warming taking place on the Euro starting around hr144 in europe and western Siberia. In time evolves into a rather impressive warming the strongest I have seen thus far. With the anticyclone over the Alaskan region lets see if this connects into the troposphere as that will once again dictate our weather in the U.S. medium/long range taking us to the end of the month early February. Strong warming also taking place around the 1mb region which well could this be the actual event?

Click to animate
Attached File  ezgif_5_0ae59e981c.gif ( 471.16K ) Number of downloads: 7


GFS hints at the potential but the one that actually shows height change and warming of temps aloft I have right now only goes to 180. Forgot my flash drive with all my sites on it. The persistence of low pressure in the troposphere over Atlantic and Europe should offer up some nice flux potential and well we seem to go back at it again in the Pacific.

MJO suggests we run through 4-6 maybe cutting through COD to pop out around 6/7? shows warmth not incredibly long lasting but probably off and on until the last few days of the month across eastern half of the country before the plunge? Gotta see how the strat holds as well if we break it going into February then expect first half of the month to be rather back and forth and the second half into march colder but would depend on what type of wave we get one or two. Models hinting at 2 but holding one in the picture for now.


Also in the QBO front we are still holding onto that region at about 50-70hPa, doesnt go to 100 but you get the idea.
yr/mo 70 50 40 30 20 15 10

48698 1703 10 107 158 153 131 73 -162
48698 1704 50 118 146 136 52 -142 -270
48698 1705 73 148 136 58 -207 -268 -286
48698 1706 126 134 110 -145 -287 -300 -304
48698 1707 127 111 57 -256 -310 -309 -331
48698 1708 76 108 28 -256 -329 -338 -337
48698 1709 78 100 27 -247 -347 -347 -339
48698 1710 91 92 -34 -258 -375 -354 -327
48698 1711 82 80 -75 -271 -356 -352 -203
48698 1712 49 62 -92 -281 -329 -379 18

If that westerly propagation aloft is true and holds we maybe seeing a descending westerly QBO next winter something to think about.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 14 2018, 05:13 PM


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jdrenken
post Jan 24 2018, 08:44 AM
Post #43




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For those who don't follow the SSW here is a string of tweets for you. Be careful with people who act like SSW impacts are instant!

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/9558168052...46%7Ctwterm%5E3

Also, take a look at this paper on SSW by Amy Butler who has more clout about the subject than those who beat their chest about it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117...-17-0648.1?af=R

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Optimizing the definition of a sudden stratospheric warming


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 24 2018, 04:35 PM
Post #44




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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 24 2018, 10:44 AM) *
For those who don't follow the SSW here is a string of tweets for you. Be careful with people who act like SSW impacts are instant!

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/9558168052...46%7Ctwterm%5E3

Also, take a look at this paper on SSW by Amy Butler who has more clout about the subject than those who beat their chest about it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117...-17-0648.1?af=R


Yea it looks like this warm wave held together quite well in time from last update. So that pre condition wave should help pool and build that cold air into AK and western Canada region into early February and this wave coming in at the end of the month should help deliver the final punch for cold to enter the U.S. just in time with a coinciding MJO wave. Which should offer activity to continue onto the strat outer region maybe not bringing an end to it, but allow it to be displaced and sort of reload the pattern similar to what we had occur except the trough axis further into western lakes and midwest which offers up the idea of the cold to spill east but allow for a transient pattern and spread the snow love from coast to ohio valley at times.

I have this feeling we just head into the normal turning time of the strat and no big wave, we still have a bit before we can call it but hopefully we dont have it really break down crazy so we have a cooler spring.

Thanks for posting.


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jdrenken
post Jan 30 2018, 10:41 AM
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All of the people known for SSW research are urging caution regarding the long range GFS depiction.


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gulfofslides
post Jan 30 2018, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 30 2018, 10:41 AM) *
All of the people known for SSW research are urging caution regarding the long range GFS depiction.

Caution because?
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jdrenken
post Jan 30 2018, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Jan 30 2018, 09:56 AM) *
Caution because?


You are joking right?


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NorEaster07
post Jan 30 2018, 12:24 PM
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A look at the 70hpa (lower part of Stratosphere) temps

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...re/70mb9065.png

Looks like it went from near record cold to normal rapidly in early January but has stopped the sudden increase now. The 50mb and 30mb are similar. The Middle and Upper part seems a bit more stable.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...re/temperature/


Attached File  Strat1.jpg ( 97.15K ) Number of downloads: 1

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gulfofslides
post Jan 30 2018, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 30 2018, 11:01 AM) *
You are joking right?

No I am not joking, are you being facetious?
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jdrenken
post Jan 30 2018, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Jan 30 2018, 05:10 PM) *
No I am not joking, are you being facetious?


I will merely say look at how the long range GFS has performed both in the stratosphere and troposphere for your answer.


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grace
post Jan 31 2018, 09:57 AM
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Whelp....GEFS has a strong SSW & total split at 10mb now. It's one thing when GFS OP shows it...but when thhe ensemble mean shows it....time to take it a little more seriously.

Split begins around HR 264...largest vortex camps out over central Canada

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...3106&fh=384

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 31 2018, 10:00 AM
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jdrenken
post Jan 31 2018, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 31 2018, 08:57 AM) *
Whelp....GEFS has a strong SSW & total split at 10mb now. It's one thing when GFS OP shows it...but when thhe ensemble mean shows it....time to take it a little more seriously.

Split begins around HR 264...largest vortex camps out over central Canada

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...3106&fh=384


Comparisons at 240...

Euro
Attached File  ecmwf10f240.gif ( 101.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


GEFS
Attached File(s)
Attached File  gfs_ens_Tz10_nhem_21.png ( 168.41K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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jdrenken
post Feb 1 2018, 09:59 AM
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What... nobody talking about how the GFS shoves the pv west and has warming over the ECONUS?

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/9590643...46%7Ctwterm%5E3


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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 1 2018, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 1 2018, 11:59 AM) *
What... nobody talking about how the GFS shoves the pv west and has warming over the ECONUS?

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/9590643...46%7Ctwterm%5E3


I dont think I have ever seen the Atlantic take charge in a split scenario hence probably why we are seeing that push west. Good to see some traffic in here finally Euro seems to take the split in equal parts so seemingly we are looking at central conus push for that scenario getting ready to grab pics during this time frame would love to see more discussion and the inter connection to what is happening in the trop led fashion to the PV during this time.


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jdrenken
post Feb 1 2018, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 1 2018, 03:02 PM) *
I dont think I have ever seen the Atlantic take charge in a split scenario hence probably why we are seeing that push west. Good to see some traffic in here finally Euro seems to take the split in equal parts so seemingly we are looking at central conus push for that scenario getting ready to grab pics during this time frame would love to see more discussion and the inter connection to what is happening in the trop led fashion to the PV during this time.


To add...and something that I have tried my best to portray in this forum despite those who worship #socialmeteorologist.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  Butler_tweet.PNG ( 30.97K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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It's a work in progress!

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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 1 2018, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 24 2018, 10:44 AM) *
For those who don't follow the SSW here is a string of tweets for you. Be careful with people who act like SSW impacts are instant!

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/9558168052...46%7Ctwterm%5E3

Also, take a look at this paper on SSW by Amy Butler who has more clout about the subject than those who beat their chest about it.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117...-17-0648.1?af=R


Wow that quickly went paid I could open it the other day and now have to pay oh well...

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 1 2018, 06:21 PM) *
To add...and something that I have tried my best to portray in this forum despite those who worship #socialmeteorologist.


You know how I feel on that subject in general but yea taking some time to check out the precursors taking place that caused this to get a better idea. I tend to hold off on GFS and even Euro at this juncture considering we are at about the 240 hour mark so the fact it is there now means it is more so in the realm of possibilities than say a day or two ago.

Euro not all to excited about split idea yet but showing real degradation of the PV.

Attached File  fluxes.gif ( 57.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 1 2018, 10:23 PM
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post Feb 1 2018, 10:59 PM
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 1 2018, 11:11 PM
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NorEaster07
post Feb 2 2018, 01:57 PM
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Euro splits it as well.

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/959456797882044416

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