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> Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away
ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2018, 09:05 AM
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The southern US is following the 2011 drought pretty decently. What ultimately happened was the southeastern drought improved through the spring but the south-central US drought got much worse. Starting to see the southeast get more rain, but south-central US isn't getting any love from any of the models. None of CPC's outlooks (6-10 day, 8-14 day, 3-4 week, monthly, seasonal) all show below average precip for the area.

If the south-central US drought doesn't improve, it could help force a ridge there which would encourage a ring of fire pattern.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 2 2018, 09:09 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 4 2018, 12:19 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 3 2018, 11:26 PM) *
Hope this severe season is good,i think it will be after a tranquil start,not sure into the latter part though if NINO sets in.It's somewhat similar to the 2009 split,it started slow



QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 3 2018, 11:41 PM) *
2009 started out slow just like this year but picked up but when Nino formed it fell off.Not saying there will be a Nino,but i'm just pointing it out the potential for an active spring into summer seems possible[attachment=347177:Torgraph...ikipedia.png

I don't think we'll move toward a Nino nearly as quick as 2009, so that should be a good thing if you like severe weather.

A wild card is what happens after the PV split. If the Tropospheric PV travels to western NA, then the severe season will be on early.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 4 2018, 12:54 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 3 2018, 11:19 PM) *
I don't think we'll move toward a Nino nearly as quick as 2009, so that should be a good thing if you like severe weather.

A wild card is what happens after the PV split. If the Tropospheric PV travels to western NA, then the severe season will be on early.


You want Nina to hang on into spring like 2009,this seems up in the air right nowAttached File  Climate_Prediction_Center___ONI.png ( 11.29K ) Number of downloads: 0



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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 4 2018, 01:01 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 4 2018, 12:54 AM) *
You want Nina to hang on into spring like 2009,this seems up in the air right nowAttached File  Climate_Prediction_Center___ONI.png ( 11.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

There's a lag of a couple months between the Nina and forcing. A good example of this is just last year. The event peaked in October and Nino 3.4 weakened below Nina threshold in early December, and began looking like a Nino in early February. But we saw a classic Nina pattern from January through March, then that pattern disappeared for the rest of the year.

But yes, to have a year like 2011 or 2008, you probably do need to have the Nina hold on longer, if not throughout the entire year. It doesn't look like that's gonna happen with this ENSO event. But this is a longer lasting Nina event, so I think there'll be some interesting times this year.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 4 2018, 01:06 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 4 2018, 01:07 AM
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But if Nino doesn't form there is always the potential that we could go back into Nina,this would be historic since there have never been a back to back to back Nina,since data back to 1950


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 4 2018, 01:16 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 4 2018, 01:07 AM) *
But if Nino doesn't form there is always the potential that we could go back into Nina,this would be historic since there have never been a back to back to back Nina,since data back to 1950

Yeah I doubt we'll see another Nina. The subsurface is looking quite warm out west but cool in the east.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 4 2018, 02:50 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 4 2018, 12:16 AM) *
Yeah I doubt we'll see another Nina. The subsurface is looking quite warm out west but cool in the east.



Probably right there.More likely Nino than Nina,but it will be a slower process i think.The warmer waters showing east of the IDL in the thermocline is by an upwelling KW mixing in warmer waters,i'll bet it will be probably gone or close to it next update on the Pentad.The next MJO passage is the one to watch after this one.If it stays at a high amptitude,it could possibly be into the IO in March into April.April is a sweet month for severe.But even on the thrermocline you want see see warmer temps at the surface than below for Nino,though passage of a KW and MJO could do the trick.We just don't know right now

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 4 2018, 03:12 AM


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NorEaster07
post Feb 7 2018, 03:33 PM
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https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/...298979798446080

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RobB
post Feb 7 2018, 04:15 PM
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2/7 12Z Euro EPS daily 850 mb temp anomalies (2 Meter not available) (Click to loop)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 7 2018, 04:24 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 7 2018, 03:33 PM) *

Booo. Hope they're wrong.

FWIW, regarding the severe events in March, I've been keeping an eye on this for the past week or so.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 29 2018, 04:16 PM) *
It's going to be interesting to see if this MJO makes it to phase 2. This could be posted in the winter and spring threads.

A 2012 paper examines the relationship between MJO phases and tornado outbreaks. It found that there's correlation between MJO being in phase 2 and spiked tornado activity in the US.

Depending on your memory (or level of care about the topic), the late February tornado outbreak of 2017 happened right after the MJO passed through phase 2.



A highly amplified MJO wave is ongoing and currently is about to enter phase 6. GFS and Euro have it reaching phase 7 in the second week of February, still pretty strongly amplified. GFS has the MJO starting to weaken as it moves slowly toward phase 8, reminiscent of the previous MJO wave (which started in phase 2).




Whether the MJO follows the previous MJO wave or continues to be highly amplified, passing through phase 2 by late February or even early March is realistic IMO. Or the third option, which would be quite anticlimactic after such a strong MJO wave, it'll just die out and go into the COD.

Will definitely be something to keep an eye on.


Still unsure if we'll make it to phase 2. GEFS stalls out the MJO while GFS and Euro operational models keep it moving pretty strongly.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 14 2018, 02:50 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 4 2018, 01:07 AM) *
But if Nino doesn't form there is always the potential that we could go back into Nina,this would be historic since there have never been a back to back to back Nina,since data back to 1950

This is simply not factual. Both 1973-76 and 1998-2001 had 3 consecutive Ninas

Additionally, 1954-57 and 1983-86 had two consecutive Ninas followed by a cool neutral event.

As a matter of fact, all three El Nino events since 1970 with an ONI value of at least 2ēC were followed by negative SSTAs for the next three winters. Thus, IMHO negative ONI values are likely to occur next winter.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...tuff/ONI_v5.php

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Feb 14 2018, 02:50 PM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 14 2018, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 14 2018, 01:50 PM) *
This is simply not factual. Both 1973-76 and 1998-2001 had 3 consecutive Ninas

Additionally, 1954-57 and 1983-86 had two consecutive Ninas followed by a cool neutral event.

As a matter of fact, all three El Nino events since 1970 with an ONI value of at least 2ēC were followed by negative SSTAs for the next three winters. Thus, IMHO negative ONI values are likely to occur next winter.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...tuff/ONI_v5.php


73 Nina started in AMJ ended in 74 JAS then went = for two months then back to Nina SON that lasted until MAM OF 76,so before and after those two Nina's were Ninos.

83 -85 was the same.By the sound you misunderstood what i was meaning.I was talking about 3-Ninas back to back to back as being classified Ninas on the ONI the chart you posted without any Nino stuck in between


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 14 2018, 11:37 PM
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Through nearly the entire GFS run, for at least a few runs now, GoM moisture stays present in the Gulf... in fact, it's rare that any fronts push the rich moisture very far from the coast. That's pretty rare for any February, nonetheless after a winter like this where the Gulf has been completely shut down.

Certainly a symptom of a strong SE ridge... here's to hoping this is only the beginning.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 15 2018, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 14 2018, 05:24 PM) *
73 Nina started in AMJ ended in 74 JAS then went = for two months then back to Nina SON that lasted until MAM OF 76,so before and after those two Nina's were Ninos.

83 -85 was the same.By the sound you misunderstood what i was meaning.I was talking about 3-Ninas back to back to back as being classified Ninas on the ONI the chart you posted without any Nino stuck in between

Yup, my bad. I focus on the winter months so if it's blue three winters in a row then that's three Nina events in my book, because each of the winter patterns will be different even if it's technically the same Nina event.

Either way, I tend to believe we'll see negative SSTAs persist through the summer or return for next winter with a Nino likely the following winter.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 15 2018, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 14 2018, 11:37 PM) *
Through nearly the entire GFS run, for at least a few runs now, GoM moisture stays present in the Gulf... in fact, it's rare that any fronts push the rich moisture very far from the coast. That's pretty rare for any February, nonetheless after a winter like this where the Gulf has been completely shut down.

Certainly a symptom of a strong SE ridge... here's to hoping this is only the beginning.

With day length and sun angle increasing rapidly at this point in the year, it's only a matter of time before thunderstorms are a common occurrence.

Thinking about going storm chasing this spring?


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2018, 08:19 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 15 2018, 05:48 PM) *
With day length and sun angle increasing rapidly at this point in the year, it's only a matter of time before thunderstorms are a common occurrence.

Thinking about going storm chasing this spring?

Not this year. The school's going again this year so I guess it's gonna be an annual thing now... so I'll go next year, my senior year.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Solstice
post Feb 16 2018, 02:28 PM
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Lots of birds were out today. Saw a red-tailed hawk and quite a few tufted titmice.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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snowsux
post Feb 16 2018, 05:16 PM
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Birds are chirping here in PA. The owl in my backyard is hooting again. It's hoots are a sure sign of spring. Last night I was painting my foyer and I heard a loud boom and saw lights through the windows. I thought it might've been a car accident or something. It was thunder and lightning. Been a while....
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 18 2018, 08:31 PM
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Looking like MJO phase 2 may come in the first week of March.



GFS and Euro are showing ridging over Japan and Korea with troughing over Mongolia. This suggests a west trough/east ridge pattern around March 5-7.




It is worth noting that EAR has troughing over east Asia a few days prior to this pattern. So maybe a brief return to winter to begin March.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 18 2018, 08:32 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post Feb 19 2018, 12:09 AM
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