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> Long Range Winter 2018-2019: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
VASnowstormHunte...
post Feb 27 2018, 11:33 PM
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Figured I'd kick start this again since met winter 2017-2018 closes out end of day tomorrow.

As with previous years, I always find it nice to send off the past winter with the opening of a new thread for the next one. We can use this thread to discuss our thoughts, the trends and any outlooks/forecasts... both professional and amateur.

I am a longtime lurker and seldom poster. Let this post serve as a huge thank you to all who contribute to this thread every year in such a meaningful way. Truly a pleasure to continue to learn from this community.

Here's to hopefully a great 2018-2019 winter season in your backyard! Cheers!
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grace
post Apr 9 2018, 08:52 PM
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Very similar to 1977-78 laugh.gif wink.gif
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Gnutella
post Apr 9 2018, 09:50 PM
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I'd like to have a second consecutive Christmas with seasonable temperatures. That'd be nice. smile.gif
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MotownWX
post Apr 9 2018, 09:56 PM
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My unofficial going-out-on-a-limb prediction for next winter:

- West Coast and Southwest warmer and drier under a persistent ridge
- Eastern US colder and stormier under a stubborn trough

You're welcome.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 10 2018, 12:54 PM
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My official spring 2018 forecast for the 18-19 winter based on weak Nina or neutral conditions.

My analog of choice is the winter of 2000/2001, which was characterized by a:
Cold start to winter in December (picking up where this winter left off)
January was generally seasonable (could be best chance at big EC storms)
February was SER on steroids with west coast troughing (Marchuary will not repeat next spring).


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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kpk33x
post Apr 10 2018, 10:05 PM
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I have a theory that when we have late springs that - more often than not - it leads to an early/front loaded winter the following year. Usually there is a warmer than normal summer in between. The years that come to mind are:
2002 - We had a run in mid May with near freezing lows and much of April was below normal save one week of a heat wave that erased it. It turned colder than normal in October and first snow (Baltimore) was relatively early on Dec. 6. We know how that winter turned out.
1995 - After a very mild winter, much of April was chilly. Winter hit Nov. 11 and stuck around until the following April.
1987 - My favorite example. 2nd half of March and much of April was chilly (I went to Baltimore's Opening Day - it snowed that morning). The following October was cold and the Veteran's Day storm was followed by a cold outbreak with some record lows.

Just a theory though.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 11 2018, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Apr 10 2018, 11:05 PM) *
I have a theory that when we have late springs that - more often than not - it leads to an early/front loaded winter the following year. Usually there is a warmer than normal summer in between. The years that come to mind are:
2002 - We had a run in mid May with near freezing lows and much of April was below normal save one week of a heat wave that erased it. It turned colder than normal in October and first snow (Baltimore) was relatively early on Dec. 6. We know how that winter turned out.
1995 - After a very mild winter, much of April was chilly. Winter hit Nov. 11 and stuck around until the following April.
1987 - My favorite example. 2nd half of March and much of April was chilly (I went to Baltimore's Opening Day - it snowed that morning). The following October was cold and the Veteran's Day storm was followed by a cold outbreak with some record lows.

Just a theory though.

I generally agree in that I think there is more cool season to cool season continuity than most believe. IMHO the warm season fits into the category of noise rather than signal regarding true anomalies to the true global circulation pattern.

Again, IMHO the most substantial changes to the global circulation occur around January coincident with peak forcing associated with ENSO.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 8 2018, 11:44 AM
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Paulie P (June 7, 2018)

From Video:

"One thing to note is, the QBO finally came in negative for the 1st month down to 50mb. Once QBO is negative it takes a while, it stays in that phase for a long time. Support of that is low solar activity. We can see some blocking trying to return again next winter. Question mark, is it early, or is it late? What I'm seeing on the modeling is a positive NAO, stronger Arctic High aloft which means theres too much westerlies coming across Canada that's not a cold, we known history last few yrs that if its westerly its gonna be hot, its gonna be warmer warmer than normal and exceed pretty high so we'll have to keep those departures up in these areas which we have for November & December right now. But January still iffy, but we do feel that with Negative QBO, Low Solar, and El Nino with the strong southern track features that maybe by mid-late winter we got some big systems to watch out for, big blocking events, could be some big coastals.. That's something way off but I just wanted kinda throw that out to you today"


QUOTE
One of my team members, Bob Smerbeck, does a lot of research into the QBO, winds across the stratosphere looking at speed and direction. A negative QBO in a similar phase of low solar angle can lead to blocking and possible bigger storms and stronger cold pushes in the winter season. The critical level is getting a negative QBO down to the lower stratosphere, 50 MB. It has finally happened this year. A phase of the QBO can last several months, so we do expect the QBO to remain negative in the lower stratosphere through the winter.

Here are some notes that Bob discovered...

"The QBO has finally flipped to easterly/negative at 50 MB in May thanks to another easterly downward surge last month. It has also flipped to the west/positive at 10 MB and this looks to be more consistent than the westerly false alarm we had last December.

Looking ahead with no surprises from below, the easterly/negative QBO at 50 MB should continue through the summer and fall for any teleconnections that use the 50 MB level. The westerly shift downward is faster and smoother than the easterly phase due to the sinking air beneath a westerly QBO.

Going back 13 QBO cycles to 1987, the average time for the westerly/positive QBO to sink from 10 MB to 30 MB was 7 months and to reach 50 MB it was 10 months. Using these trends, the westerly/positive QBO should reach 30 MB in November in and 50 MB in February. "

Attached File  QBO.jpg ( 52.66K ) Number of downloads: 1
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grace
post Jun 18 2018, 12:19 PM
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Analog ingredients to keep in mind: more than likely weak to moderate El Nino & low solar. Of course we'll wait on location of Nino. I have not research any analogs & doubtful I will for a while.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 21 2018, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 18 2018, 01:19 PM) *
Analog ingredients to keep in mind: more than likely weak to moderate El Nino & low solar. Of course we'll wait on location of Nino. I have not research any analogs & doubtful I will for a while.


Looking like neutral to weak nino conditions maybe modoki look as the eastern PAC has been relatively cool even with the large warm pool underneath the other regions. Thinking we have an early chance at SSW potential this year with the remnants of the -QBO around low solar tends to have more impact on blocking situations and i mean the way we have been seeing it over the past couple months its not too improbable to see it continue. We will speed things up as usual in september/october time frame so it will be interesting to see the transition occur. Also another note is as usual watch how we decline in ice this year. If we see a large reduction in the next month or two we could throw a wrench in some ideas, but overall there has not been too much reduction since april/may area where it was roasting up there (relatively speaking). It is almost like there has been a little bit of a brick wall setting up that has kept the arctic protected from large moisture content going up and causing some crazy melts.

Been awhile since I have really monitored anything from the Arctic anybody know of sites to find comparitive data for month to month or day to day of the sea ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic?



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phils1
post Jun 25 2018, 12:32 PM
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Several early signs point to a potential cold and snowy winter in the Mid-Atlantic region for the upcoming 2018-2019 season...this includes prospects for warming in two key areas of the Pacific Ocean (equatorial and Gulf of Alaska), almost certain continuation of low solar activity, and current above-normal snow and ice extent on an important cold air source region of Greenland...detailed blog and video discussion:

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/...atlantic-region
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Attached File  CFSv2_SST_DJF.png ( 94.58K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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NewEnglander
post Jun 30 2018, 03:40 PM
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Anyone with more knowledge than me? Because to me it's not looking too good right now. Cooling off of Alaska and warming up in the eastern enso region.


This post has been edited by NewEnglander: Jun 30 2018, 03:45 PM
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grace
post Jul 1 2018, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 30 2018, 03:40 PM) *
Anyone with more knowledge than me? Because to me it's not looking too good right now. Cooling off of Alaska and warming up in the eastern enso region.



It's way too early to look at SST's & draw implications for winter at all. SST's can change a lot in a relatively short period of time. ENSO still uncertain at this time.
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grace
post Jul 11 2018, 10:58 PM
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I've been reluctant to make a big deal about it but 2009-10 could end up being a top analog before all is said & done, but solar & ENSO is where the similarities end. Long way to go, but 500mb for summer 2018 so far is literally polar opposite of 2009. We'll see

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 11 2018, 11:40 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 11 2018, 11:58 PM) *
I've been reluctant to make a big deal about it but 2009-10 could end up being a top analog before all is said & done, but solar & ENSO is where the similarities end. Long way to go, but 500mb for summer 2018 so far is literally polar opposite of 2009. We'll see


Arctic holding on nicely as it did in 2009 and 2013, lets make it clear it is not recovering just holding its own for now. It will be interesting to see how things shape up.


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SnowMan11
post Jul 13 2018, 09:09 AM
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I see many outlets are going with a Modki El Nino for the winter. Too early to say right now but that would be great for the mid atlantic.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 13 2018, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jul 13 2018, 10:09 AM) *
I see many outlets are going with a Modki El Nino for the winter. Too early to say right now but that would be great for the mid atlantic.


I would like to see how the developing EKW takes hold and what it does to the temps before I start thinking down that path. Weak nino seems still possible but warm neutral seems to be the thing that sticks out. If we start to see a large reversal in things over the next month or two then we can fully say yes to weak nino status. The atmosphere is trying to bring it to a nino state gotta wait and see if it can manage to do so.


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grace
post Jul 13 2018, 08:15 PM
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Latest JAMSTEC update will have winter lovers very intrigued. Below normal temps for most of the U.S. & all of east....above normal precip for everyone east of Mississippi River



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...al/outlook.html

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weather_boy2010
post Jul 14 2018, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 13 2018, 08:15 PM) *
Latest JAMSTEC update will have winter lovers very intrigued. Below normal temps for most of the U.S. & all of east....above normal precip for everyone east of Mississippi River

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...al/outlook.html


So, not that I am looking to pee in your Wheaties here, but the JAMSTEC hasn't done so well in recent years, with respect to the July forecast...
2017-2018 Winter

Attached File  17_jamstec.gif ( 68.51K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  17_actual.png ( 418.18K ) Number of downloads: 1

2016-2017 Winter

Attached File  16_jamstec.gif ( 67.78K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  16_actual.png ( 396.87K ) Number of downloads: 1

It does have a decent track record though, especially in respect to other climate models, so maybe it's just been struggling post-Super El Nino? Who knows, maybe this year will be the year that it gets back on track!

This post has been edited by weather_boy2010: Jul 14 2018, 11:25 AM
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NewEnglander
post Jul 14 2018, 12:25 PM
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Looks like our +PDO is slowly coming on. Look at the cold water NW of Hawaii and the warming of waters off the NW Canadian coast and off the coast of southern Alaska.

Does anyone know what a +PDO and a central based Modoki El Nino means for New England?

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