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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
alczervik
post Jul 11 2018, 02:42 PM
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It has been very dry in southeastern Michigan.

Can't wait to see my next water bill
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MotownWX
post Jul 13 2018, 11:51 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jul 11 2018, 03:42 PM) *
It has been very dry in southeastern Michigan.

Can't wait to see my next water bill


There was a decent band of showers making its way SE across central MI early this morning when I got up (5-6 am). Of course it all fizzled out as it approached the metro Detroit area.

We have a blanket 30% chance through the weekend into early next week, but I hardly ever see anything when the chances are that low.
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 13 2018, 05:18 PM
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Could use some rain here, as well. June was quite wet, but we have started drying up. Weekend doesn't look promising for anything widespread.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 14 2018, 06:32 AM
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Here comes another dry stretch... Trough with Cooler drier Canadian air comes in and looks like stays for couple days. That would be amazing to have 50s dews for multiple days straight. We'll see.

I'm sure the airmass will be modified by time it gets to us but still, should be another long stretch of goodness.

Attached File  Forecast10.jpg ( 146.56K ) Number of downloads: 2



WPC Long Range Discussion:

QUOTE
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 17 2018 - 12Z Sat Jul 21 2018

...Overview...

The flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. will become a bit more
amplified during the medium range period with an upper-level ridge
expanding from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies, and a
series of upper waves gradually carving out a trough across the
Great Lakes. Heights are also expected to fall across the Pacific
Northwest by late next week as an upper low digs south from the
Gulf of Alaska toward the region.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A majority deterministic blend including the ECMWF/GFS/CMC was
initially preferred during days 3-5 (Tue-Thu). Models have settled
toward a somewhat slower/more amplified solution with the
trough/upper low passing south of Hudson Bay and moving east into
Quebec during this time frame. The same generally holds true for
additional shortwave energy crossing the north central U.S.
Wed-Thu, which then looks likely to amplify further across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Fri-Sat. Farther west, models continue to
show a compact but energetic shortwave diving southeast across the
Gulf of Alaska toward British Columbia Tue-Wed, with heights
falling across the U.S. Pacific Northwest by later in the week.
Some timing differences remain, but in general guidance has
trended toward somewhat slower/more amplified solutions here as
well. Given the increase in spread, majority weighting was shifted
to ensemble means for days 6-7 (Fri-Sat), including the ECENS and
NAEFS means.


...Weather Highlights/Threats...

Showers and storms with locally heavy rain will accompany a cold
front from the Appalachians to the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Tue-Wed. The trailing end of the
frontal boundary is expected to stall from the Southeast to the
southern/central plains, which could also focus locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms through later next week. Monsoonal
moisture will also produce scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms from the southern Great Basin/Southwest to the
southern/central Rockies through the next week, with locally heavy
rain possible especially early in the week (the building
upper-level ridge should gradually reduce the coverage of
convection by later next week).

In the wake of the cold front, high temperatures are expected to
be 5 to 10 deg below average across the central/northern plains
and portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes through much of next week.
Hot temperatures across the Pacific Northwest (highs 5 to 10 deg
above average) should moderate some by later next week as a
Pacific cold front moves inland.


Ryan:



It wont be anything extreme or crazy next week, but will keep Summer conditions in check for sure. (East of the Plains)





And look what GFS has towards the end of the month. ohmy.gif

Doubt this will happen as strong..

Attached File  GFS1.jpg ( 270.73K ) Number of downloads: 3




Attached File(s)
Attached File  GFS2.jpg ( 261.43K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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NorEaster07
post Jul 14 2018, 06:33 AM
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telejunkie
post Jul 14 2018, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 14 2018, 07:32 AM) *
Here comes another dry stretch... Trough with Cooler drier Canadian air comes in and looks like stays for couple days. That would be amazing to have 50s dews for multiple days straight. We'll see.

I'm sure the airmass will be modified by time it gets to us but still, should be another long stretch of goodness.

Attached File  Forecast10.jpg ( 146.56K ) Number of downloads: 2

WPC Long Range Discussion:




It wont be anything extreme or crazy next week, but will keep Summer conditions in check for sure. (East of the Plains)





And look what GFS has towards the end of the month. ohmy.gif

Doubt this will happen as strong..

Attached File  GFS1.jpg ( 270.73K ) Number of downloads: 3

PV comes a calling wink.gif


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Solstice
post Jul 14 2018, 09:27 AM
Post #207




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Interesting start to next month? ohmy.gif.
Attached File  18_0803_00_500.gif ( 110.03K ) Number of downloads: 8


In other news, now a probationary member of my fire department biggrin.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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weather_boy2010
post Jul 14 2018, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 14 2018, 09:27 AM) *
Interesting start to next month? ohmy.gif .
Attached File  18_0803_00_500.gif ( 110.03K ) Number of downloads: 8


In other news, now a probationary member of my fire department biggrin.gif .


I just want it to cool the h-eck off. This relentless heat and humidity is really getting to me.
Congrats on the FD news!
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NorEaster07
post Jul 15 2018, 07:09 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 14 2018, 10:38 AM) *
I just want it to cool the h-eck off. This relentless heat and humidity is really getting to me.
Congrats on the FD news!


Relentless?? Aren't you near Lake Michigan west of South Bend? Do you mean relentless 80s? Do you mean July only? Cause June was sure cool and July only has a handful of well above normal days.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 15 2018, 07:58 AM
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With the way the Jet stream keeps dipping and these troughs coming in with blocking in the Atlantic it should make for an interesting setup.

This will not only keep temps down but also bring a chance of a coastal storm forming. Lets keep an eye on this pattern.. Chris and Beryl came within few hundred miles of hitting the coast and take a look at the setup coming.


This mornings look at the Upper Height. See loop below.



Pretty persistent Atlantic HP and even gets closer to East coast towards the end of the run.




I think the East coast may be entering a wet period as a parked High Pressure over the Atlantic will bring a southeast flow up the coast and stall fronts coming in. Kinda Like what we had in Spring especially in Northeast?
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telejunkie
post Jul 15 2018, 09:11 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 14 2018, 10:27 AM) *
Interesting start to next month? ohmy.gif.
Attached File  18_0803_00_500.gif ( 110.03K ) Number of downloads: 8


In other news, now a probationary member of my fire department biggrin.gif.

Awesome solstice! Volunteer? Now wash to trucks Proby! wink.gif


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MotownWX
post Jul 16 2018, 06:46 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jul 11 2018, 03:42 PM) *
It has been very dry in southeastern Michigan.

Can't wait to see my next water bill


Went through the weekend with blanket 30%/40% chances without a drop. Looks like cells stayed down by the I-94 corridor.

60% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Oakland/Macomb this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. This would be our last chance for any precipitation until next weekend.

I'd feel more comfortable with 80% or greater. I still tend to miss the "60% chance" type stuff this time of year.
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alczervik
post Jul 16 2018, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE(MotownWX @ Jul 16 2018, 07:46 AM) *
Went through the weekend with blanket 30%/40% chances without a drop. Looks like cells stayed down by the I-94 corridor.

60% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Oakland/Macomb this afternoon with the passage of a cold front. This would be our last chance for any precipitation until next weekend.

I'd feel more comfortable with 80% or greater. I still tend to miss the "60% chance" type stuff this time of year.


It seems like my area, central Macomb county, always either gets by passed to the west or south as of late. I wish this would happen in the Winter.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 16 2018, 03:35 PM
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Almost looks like a fall pattern trying to set up in august! Heavy rain/flooding potential on the east portion of the of the trough axis as the ULL looks to sit and get rejuvenated with more energy flowing over the ridge to the west. Going to have to watch though as the bermuda high will try to fight back across the area east coast so adding more moisture into the mixture should add to some fun. Thunderstorm potential probably everyday not much in the way of severe though.

Might have tropical potential close to home with such a decent bemuda high and things getting "stuck" something to keep an eye out for especially as we move into august.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ValpoSnow
post Jul 16 2018, 08:07 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 15 2018, 07:09 AM) *
Relentless?? Aren't you near Lake Michigan west of South Bend? Do you mean relentless 80s? Do you mean July only? Cause June was sure cool and July only has a handful of well above normal days.


June was above normal here and July has been miserable.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jul 17 2018, 02:00 AM
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Bought my self a home in Altmar NY (foothills of the tug hill plateau) and it has been absolutely bone dry as we are now in a moderate drought, we have seen 2”-3” of rain since the beginning of April..Tonight looks to be another missed opportunity sad.gif

Attached File  2FA25302_0180_4E4C_B6D8_0E470911C3C7.jpeg ( 369.03K ) Number of downloads: 2



View of my property when we had a little bit of green lol

Attached File  D7C71AF8_67DF_4EB4_9444_33C47D9ACF6C.jpeg ( 766.76K ) Number of downloads: 2

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MaineJay
post Jul 17 2018, 05:13 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jul 17 2018, 03:00 AM) *
Bought my self a home in Altmar NY (foothills of the tug hill plateau) and it has been absolutely bone dry as we are now in a moderate drought, we have seen 2”-3” of rain since the beginning of April..Tonight looks to be another missed opportunity sad.gif

View of my property when we had a little bit of green lol


Congrats Mike! Looks like a sweet crib. smile.gif

It's been awful dry here as well, going three thunderstorms will produce today.

On a side, it'll be disappointing that we won't get to hear about how the snow will have followed you yet again.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 17 2018, 06:24 AM
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Not sure when the site will disappear, but now that the cat is out of the bag guessing it won't be long.

Just wanted to thank everyone for the hospitality and sharing of the wealth of knowledge these forums provided over the years. I've learned enough to atleast look further into the TV Met. "Hyped events" and decide for myself whether to be concerned. Still don't know jack compared to most here though laugh.gif

Gonna be weird not making a daily visit either looking at latest modeling output or personal thoughts on the next big event. Don't do Twitter and Facebook is losing its appeal, wish I knew how to start up a forum.

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Solstice
post Jul 17 2018, 07:55 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 15 2018, 10:11 AM) *
Awesome solstice! Volunteer? Now wash to trucks Proby! wink.gif


Yup, volunteer. laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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MotownWX
post Jul 17 2018, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Jul 16 2018, 09:39 AM) *
It seems like my area, central Macomb county, always either gets by passed to the west or south as of late. I wish this would happen in the Winter.


Finally rain. Got a nice downpour about 5 pm yesterday at home. Almost got a second wave around 10 pm but it scooted juuuust to my south to Troy/Royal Oak.
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