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> 2018-19 El Nino Watch, Forecasts, discussions, observations thread
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 16 2018, 09:15 PM
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El Nino watch is in effect. CFS is showing a high-end weak/low-end moderate, JAMSTEC is showing a solid moderate. Both models show Nino 1+2 will be the coolest of the 4 regions. CFS focuses the Nino on 3.4, JAMSTEC on 3.

I wouldn't put much stock on either model right now. Give it a few months and see where we're at. But feel free to monitor them and also the subsurface.


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ILStormwatcher
post Jun 16 2018, 09:41 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 16 2018, 09:15 PM) *
El Nino watch is in effect. CFS is showing a high-end weak/low-end moderate, JAMSTEC is showing a solid moderate. Both models show Nino 1+2 will be the coolest of the 4 regions. CFS focuses the Nino on 3.4, JAMSTEC on 3.

I wouldn't put much stock on either model right now. Give it a few months and see where we're at. But feel free to monitor them and also the subsurface.


Looks more like a hybrid Modaki Nino to me, which wouldn't be the worst case scenario for the up coming Winter, in fact might be good news if it stays weak to moderate in the +1 to +2 range any higher and things would like torch regardless in terms of Snow and cold shots.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 17 2018, 12:39 AM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Jun 16 2018, 09:41 PM) *
Looks more like a hybrid Modaki Nino to me, which wouldn't be the worst case scenario for the up coming Winter, in fact might be good news if it stays weak to moderate in the +1 to +2 range any higher and things would like torch regardless in terms of Snow and cold shots.


More study needs to be put into Ninos.They dont work in tandem seemingly and you can use any analog you find and it would probably back fire on you.The IMME right now looks more modoki into winter,but mostly all of the seasonals shows no cold blob into the Aleutians,Bearing Sea,North Eastern Pacific.This would seem troughs in the east IMO,not west.Who knows at this point,but this winter right now shouldn't be Debbie downer

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Jun 17 2018, 01:04 AM


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MaineJay
post Jun 17 2018, 04:39 AM
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I imagine the effect is mostly local, but one has to ponder, can a volcano affects SSTs?

La Cumbre on the island of Fernandina in the Galapagos is currently erupting with ocean entry of lava.

It shows up nicely in GOES16 imagery.

Attached File  ezgif_3_59b5355195.gif ( 1.19MB ) Number of downloads: 0

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

Probably just coincidence that the waters just west of the Galapagos have warmed over the past week, but like I said, kinda interesting.

Attached File  cdas_sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png ( 132.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/


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grace
post Jun 17 2018, 07:32 PM
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This is an awesome & amazing comparison by Eric Webb.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/10...6519385088?s=19

This post has been edited by grace: Jun 28 2018, 02:30 PM
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Gnutella
post Jun 17 2018, 09:39 PM
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A typical El Niño tends to give the South a cooler- and wetter-than-normal winter, which sounds fine to me. I actually like cool and rainy in the winter, and a typical El Niño winter also has a higher chance of snow and wintry precipitation in the South. The downside is, there's also a higher chance of severe weather in the South during a typical El Niño fall, and along the immediate Gulf Coast into Florida during a typical El Niño winter.
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grace
post Jun 28 2018, 02:25 PM
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This is a really interesting tweet thread. Suggesting El Nino headfake & never making it:

https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1011...7243660291?s=19


BTW...Eric Webb is an absolute stud when it comes to ENSO

This post has been edited by grace: Jun 28 2018, 02:30 PM
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MaineJay
post Jul 28 2018, 02:04 PM
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Looks like a Kelvin wave surfacing in the east.

Attached File  TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif ( 108.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assort..._5Day_EQ_xz.gif

Sea surface heights,

Attached File  SSHA_20180728_010000.png ( 1.75MB ) Number of downloads: 0

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/Science/datasources/ssha/

combined with anomalously weak trades suggest another could be organizing.

Attached File  ecmwf_u850aMean_global_3.png ( 126.63K ) Number of downloads: 0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...072812&fh=0

This in and of itself isn't enough to push things into Niño territory, just have to wait and see if it becomes a series of them.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 28 2018, 02:04 PM


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idecline
post Aug 13 2018, 06:31 PM
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...Alert>>>

Aug. 13, 2018
QUOTE
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the
Pacific Ocean.
There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018
(September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19


ohmy.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...s-fcsts-web.pdf


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stretchct
post Aug 13 2018, 09:55 PM
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Gonna need a -nao this winter if there’s a 70% chance of El Nino

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/el-n...w-season-impact


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