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> Long Range Fall 2018 Outlook, My favorite season begins in 3 months!!!
bingobobbo
post Jun 22 2018, 11:49 AM
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My favorite season's equinox is now only three months away. If you're like me, you don't like summer--namely oppressive heat and humidity. I enjoy the refreshing breezes and crisp, moderate air.

Here is how to wait for autumn:

6-22 Autumnal equinox is only three months away. This morning's low was an autumnal 48 degrees. Let's hope we see some more sub-50 lows before September.
6-23 September begins in only 10 weeks.
7-1 September becomes the month after net; October only 3 months away
7-16 At noon this day, we are closer to the beginning of October than to the end of April.
7-23 October is only 10 weeks away
7-24 The number of days until September is under 40.
7-25 The number of days until November is merely in the double digits
8-1 Meteorological summer is two-thirds over; September is next month
8-16 We are closer to October than June
8-18 The earliest we ever had our final 80-plus degree day (1967 and 2006)
8-23 September is only a single digit number of days away; October is under 40 days away; November begins in only 10 weeks; (and for winter lovers), December begins in only 100 days.
9-13 The average day of our final 80-degree high
9-17 It has never reached 90 degrees on this date or later in the year.
10-23 It has never reached 80 degrees on this date or later.

This post has been edited by bingobobbo: Jun 22 2018, 11:59 AM


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KnightRaven
post Jul 12 2018, 06:04 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Jun 22 2018, 11:49 AM) *
My favorite season's equinox is now only three months away. If you're like me, you don't like summer--namely oppressive heat and humidity. I enjoy the refreshing breezes and crisp, moderate air.


I, like you, am a fan of the cooler months weather in our area.

Last year, it seemed to me like autumn started showing it's hand mid to late august.

Hopefully, this year the same will happen and we can start seeing people report cooler weather. This heat's for the birds!!

Thanks for starting this bingobobbo!!

-Mike
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NorEaster07
post Jul 13 2018, 06:21 AM
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https://twitter.com/NickGunterWX/status/1017450715328012293

Attached File  Fall.jpg ( 177.72K ) Number of downloads: 5


Edit: That's Astronomical Fall. Meteo Fall starts in 7 weeks (49 days). biggrin.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jul 13 2018, 06:26 AM
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OSNW3
post Jul 16 2018, 09:54 AM
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Based on current RRWT interval rates a recent trough in the Hudson Bay region will ignite the Autumn spirit come mid October. smile.gif

Attached File  dwm500_test_20180709.gif ( 260.57K ) Number of downloads: 13


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NorEaster07
post Jul 16 2018, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jul 16 2018, 09:54 AM) *
Based on current RRWT interval rates a recent trough in the Hudson Bay region will ignite the Autumn spirit come mid October. smile.gif

Attached File  dwm500_test_20180709.gif ( 260.57K ) Number of downloads: 13


Interesting pattern being shown now (in mid July) coming up next 2 weeks how the troughs are back to digging down again like back in June. Made me wonder if it will continue or be back for fall. And naturally air gets colder after August so would be fun to see....and feel the crisps
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stxprowl
post Jul 20 2018, 01:11 AM
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Attached File  8DCAE621_E858_4CE0_9C50_BF1156B2D84C.png ( 373.54K ) Number of downloads: 5
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kpk33x
post Jul 21 2018, 10:32 AM
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I liked fall only slightly less than winter when I lived in NH because it was beautiful. But now that I'm out here in the Midwest its kind of meh. The fields are yellow and then brown when they harvest. Not many trees to look at.

If my totally non-scientific theory from earlier this year holds from the extended winter then the late Aug-November period will be cooler than normal. Based on an extended winter and then sudden summer in April. So far this has been a warm but not hot summer, and the next two weeks look pretty reasonable as far as the temperatures go. Nothing in my extended above 90 until August 4.

As many days as we can knock out of the June-August period without ludicrously hot temps, the better. Hoping this forecast gets us to the 2/3 mark and then we're getting close.


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Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 7 2018, 02:31 AM
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This will obviously have an impact on our weather. NHC/JMA has identified tropical depression 26. If you've been paying attention to the models in the west Pacific, you'd know this will certainly impact the global weather pattern based on how strong this system is.

I've been waiting for this system to be named, and now it is. I found out by seeing this tweet that Anthony Masiello retweeted (so you know it's legit).



I verified it independently. Here you can see that, as of the time of advisory, the maximum sustained winds were 20. This was even true for 24 hours in advance (so 17 hours from this post).

At hour 120, this system is expected to have maximum sustained winds of 135 knots.

To summarize the report..

00 hour: 20 knots, 30 knot gusts
12 hour: 30 knots, 40 knot gusts
24 hour: 40 knots, 50 knot gusts
36 hour: 45 knots, 55 knot gusts
48 hour: 55 knots, 70 knot gusts
72 hour: 75 knots, 90 knot gusts (category 1)
96 hour: 105 knots, 130 knot gusts (category 2)
120 hour: 135 knots, 165 knot gusts (category 4)

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/west...mp;map=forecast



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ILStormwatcher
post Sep 7 2018, 06:37 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 7 2018, 02:31 AM) *
This will obviously have an impact on our weather. NHC/JMA has identified tropical depression 26. If you've been paying attention to the models in the west Pacific, you'd know this will certainly impact the global weather pattern based on how strong this system is.

I've been waiting for this system to be named, and now it is. I found out by seeing this tweet that Anthony Masiello retweeted (so you know it's legit).



I verified it independently. Here you can see that, as of the time of advisory, the maximum sustained winds were 20. This was even true for 24 hours in advance (so 17 hours from this post).

At hour 120, this system is expected to have maximum sustained winds of 135 knots.

To summarize the report..

00 hour: 20 knots, 30 knot gusts
12 hour: 30 knots, 40 knot gusts
24 hour: 40 knots, 50 knot gusts
36 hour: 45 knots, 55 knot gusts
48 hour: 55 knots, 70 knot gusts
72 hour: 75 knots, 90 knot gusts (category 1)
96 hour: 105 knots, 130 knot gusts (category 2)
120 hour: 135 knots, 165 knot gusts (category 4)

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/west...mp;map=forecast


Slatted to hit China/Taiwan which isn't good for Fall lovers in the eastern 2/3rds of the US as this would pump up the Ridge big time likely resulting in August like heat for a couple weeks starting around day 7 to 10 and lasting potentially till month's end. West coast and western Canada into Alaska could get cooler and more interesting however.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 7 2018, 12:07 PM
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This would absolutely destroy those 2 islands in the northeast quadrant. 06z GFS has it getting down to 864mb, 6mb lower than the all-time record. 12z GFS down to 868mb.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 7 2018, 12:09 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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