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If you're not enjoying life as much as I am, it's not my fault!
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EF-5 (Mega Poster)
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My Content
20 Jul 2018
While many are migrating, the weather moves along to an end of the recent "winning weather streak" for most of the region.

Once again, I picked the correct week for a vacation and, save for past Tuesday's rain (which did not last all day) - have had a delightful run or typical summer.

That looks to change as soon as tomorrow as a system that has some of the appearance of a winter time Nor'easter, approaches in response to the parent low in the Lakes region.

GFS seems to want to make more of this, and sooner, than do the other global set I've seen so far today - moving it into the MidAtl as early as tomorrow afternoon. Others delay the arrival, included in there is the NAM version.

Here's NAM QPF output, as the front that moves in the wake of the coastal, as it lifts northeast, gets stuck and become the focal point for rainy "mayhem" - potentially lasting the entire following 7 day time pd.

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Here's the most recent WPC outlook for our time pd of interest.

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23 Jun 2018
Time to pull the plug on the June stationary front thread as the Atl ridging comes back with a vengeance (and reminds me of Summer 2015)

From Weather World http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/12day.html

Starting with ol' Uncle Paul (Knight) and the extended (for PA, but is representative of the region as a whole)

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And rolling along with his cohort, "Uncle Fred"

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Mix in some CTP LR disco, for filler.

The big story during the second half of next week (possibly
lasting into early July) will be the hot/humid conditions
becoming established across the mid-Atlantic/Northeast states in
association with anomalous upper ridge. Max heat index grids for
Friday suggest the potential for heat advisory conditions
across the Susquehanna Valley. Will highlight the heat risk in
the HWO.


And to finish this initial post, the WPC D7 surface fronts, etc.
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Who's ready to get cooking? wink.gif
12 Apr 2018
In a testament to how "snow centric" this forum can be, we have an important long wave/short wave combination just a few days away, and relatively little discussion about it. So, I figured I'd better open a thread to see if anyone is truly interested.

Whether one looks at the GFS or the Euro, or even the ensembles, a super soaker is surely looming. I'll spare you my take, and just copy and paste the CTP discussion.

Model guidance has some relatively minor timing differences
with the main frontal system heading into the second half of the
weekend/early next week. The increasingly amplified springtime
pattern with distinct air masses and deep moisture feed from the
ahead of an active cold front could eventually support a
risk for heavy rain and thunderstorms - most likely in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe.

GEFS mean rainfall for locations across Central PA are in the
1.75-2.25 inch range, with some ensemble members along with the
operational EC and GFS indicating the potential for around 3
inches of storm total rainfall over the 24 to 36 hour period
where training bands of heavy rain or thunderstorms occur

The exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall is still
a bit uncertain. The higher end rainfall amounts would bring
the threat of small stream and poor drainage flooding

SPC has even introduced a risk for severe on Sunday, as this front structure has the temperature contrast and moisture content, more than ample to "get the job done"
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2 Apr 2018
Hey there rock and roll winter fans. Old Uncle Undertakerson is back to spin up yet another tune of the ol' familiar broken record I like to call "Endless Winter". So, sit right back and pour an adult beverage of your choice while we listen to each and every 8 Track(ing) days ahead.

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Here's the most recent Euro - birds eye view

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And GFS ensembles because the Op run outside of Hr96 is terrible

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Stay tuned for more classic gas from your old pal here at WUTS where we always ask "wuts up?" and we won't quit, until you cry -- UNCLE.
22 Mar 2018
I say we need an "Onion Snow" before the "winter" season can truly end. I offer that this one is "it".


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12z MREF 3/22/18

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Obvious points - such storms do not favor most of MidAtl (for wintery side) unless time of day/event is just right. ATTM I think a MAX, if stars align, accum COULD be 6" atop the tulips somewhere. Such events have strong temp contrast and can spark random rumbles of thundersnow, which can be intense for brief periods. Other than that, rain or mix for many.

But this should favor MidAtl, by geographic consideration - IOW, the storm does hit from NC and North, but again, has a limited "white" side to it.

The GFS Op map seems to want to make more of it. I'm not buying just yet.

Looooooonnnnngggg way to go.
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