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> Dec. 14-16 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility: Longe range (8-15 days out)
DiehardFF
post Dec 12 2013, 09:29 PM
Post #1781




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Now before y'all say "NAM is always wet". Do me a favor and look at the past 4 runs and compare to this...



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The Day After To...
post Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM
Post #1782




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I am laughing insanely right now. 12-14" from NYC up the Hudson Valley. One can only hope! Next is the GFS. My honest guess is that it follows to be somewhat like the NAM. Anyone else want throw in their .02?


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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WX HOBBYIST

Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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BenchmarksTheSpo...
post Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM
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You could see this coming early w/ the cold further south and how amped it was. HOWEVER, the NAM does start to over precipitate in this range for many (see 2/8/13...)
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sw03181
post Dec 12 2013, 09:28 PM
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The SREFs trended wetter/colder on their most recent run so seeing the NAM come in colder/wetter doesn't surprise me.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 12 2013, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(BenchmarksTheSpot @ Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM) *
You could see this coming early w/ the cold further south and how amped it was. HOWEVER, the NAM does start to over precipitate in this range for many (see 2/8/13...)

Just ask those in Boston how they enjoyed their 72" of snow with that storm
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 12 2013, 09:29 PM
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NAM is west and amped, probably too wet though.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 12 2013, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM) *
I am laughing insanely right now. 12-14" from NYC up the Hudson Valley. One can only hope! Next is the GFS. My honest guess is that it follows to be somewhat like the NAM. Anyone else want throw in their .02?


that it will not look like the NAM is my guess..
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DiehardFF
post Dec 12 2013, 09:31 PM
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PA FF/EMT
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phillyPete
post Dec 12 2013, 09:29 PM
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Normally I would say this NAM is crazy (which it likely is) - but it was the first one to really clue in to amounts the last storm for MBY. If I get half of what it's throwing out there - I'll be thrilled. Can't wait to see what GFS says.
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The Day After To...
post Dec 12 2013, 09:32 PM
Post #1790




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LOL. Not buying 12" for me yet...although 8-12 may not be too far fetched. 12 in NYC? Yeah...no.


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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sw03181
post Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM
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OMGGGGG

Attached Image


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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DiehardFF
post Dec 12 2013, 09:32 PM
Post #1792




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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Dec 12 2013, 09:29 PM) *
that it will not look like the NAM is my guess..

GFS started this QPF trend, my friend...



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PA FF/EMT
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LUCC
post Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Dec 12 2013, 09:23 PM) *
NAM gonna be a great run for much of i95.. not buying it yet but nice to see it fwiw, and within 48...

gfs up next..

Snow breeds now, we shall see how true that is because the snow in my yard is not going anywhere.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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gulfofslides
post Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Dec 12 2013, 09:25 PM) *
NAM has a strip of 12" through northern NJ lol 6-12, over much of nj... suspect wink.gif

Lock it in laugh.gif
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weatherwatcher24
post Dec 12 2013, 09:33 PM
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If all other models follow the nam it is something to keep an eye on
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LUCC
post Dec 12 2013, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 12 2013, 09:30 PM) *
OMGGGGG

Attached Image

blink.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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DomNH
post Dec 12 2013, 09:31 PM
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Lol the NAM is having trouble resolving convection problems from run to run. Completely ignore it, it's a mess.


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BenchmarksTheSpo...
post Dec 12 2013, 09:33 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 12 2013, 09:31 PM) *
Just ask those in Boston how they enjoyed their 72" of snow with that storm

Or the 47" I was supposed to get in NW NJ about 36 hours before. Got 8". Yeah...

Grain. Of. Salt.

BUT, like the amped/colder part...at the RANGE we should care about at this point. GFS is more improtant at this point.

If it's more amped and colder than 18z, more can start getting excited...
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grandpaboy
post Dec 12 2013, 09:32 PM
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Not sure how to take the NAM....always with a grain of salt, but that run anyone north of the Mason Dixon line is game for big snows....even coastal areas...


again ........Massive grain of salt



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--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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DiehardFF
post Dec 12 2013, 09:35 PM
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0z NAM :


18z GFS :





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PA FF/EMT
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