Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

7 Pages V  « < 5 6 7  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Phased Vort
post Aug 12 2017, 06:00 PM
Post #121




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,528
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





ECMWF at the 00Z run and 12Z run today, do show the energy for this possible cyclone taking more or less the same path as shown by the GFS, albeit, a much weaker version of a system.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
TC1
post Aug 13 2017, 02:46 AM
Post #122




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 483
Joined: 22-January 16
Member No.: 30,836





Go home, GFS. You're drunk...

(click)


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 04:53 AM
Post #123




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 12 2017, 12:49 PM) *
Gotta love the good ol' CMC rolleyes.gif

[attachment=327342:CMC.png]

So then, when the next run of the might Euro, after the threatening looking CMC, look like this - then what?


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 05:09 AM
Post #124




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,514
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 12 2017, 02:01 PM) *
Half of the 12 member MREF have some sort of cyclo from the Atl. Of course, we just went through that kind of thing recently, so...

[attachment=327345:f288.gif]



The operational GFS is so inconsistent that it's tough to heed it's advice, but I'm willing to give the ensembles a chance. smile.gif as you just mentioned the ECMWF is toying with the system rolling of West Africa as well. It's a healthy blob of convection.

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=12


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 05:23 AM
Post #125




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





With all 4 global modes "on board" in some form or fashion we may, finally, have a legit US threat to monitor.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 05:29 AM
Post #126




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Thinking that our friend Ron and the rest of the Fl crowd, will get a harsh wake up this morning - once they view the overnight runs and this mornings GFS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 05:47 AM
Post #127




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(TC1 @ Aug 13 2017, 03:46 AM) *
Go home, GFS. You're drunk...

(click)


Attached Image

Not only did it not go home - I think it ordered a double at last call.
Attached Image


I think my nephew is unlucky to have just been reassigned to Sumter, SC unsure.gif

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 13 2017, 05:54 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 06:53 AM
Post #128




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 936
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 13 2017, 06:29 AM) *
Thinking that our friend Ron and the rest of the Fl crowd, will get a harsh wake up this morning - once they view the overnight runs and this mornings GFS


The models think the Atlantic is about to come Alive! O_o Euro looks to hit me, and the GFS gives us a close call. Not to mention several other AOI pop up in the long range, looks like there's gonna be some sleepless nights ahead.

Also of note, NHC must have high confidence in the African wave as they already made it an invest at 0/20 % O_o Unusual to get it that low...

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Aug 13 2017, 06:55 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 07:16 AM
Post #129




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Aug 13 2017, 07:53 AM) *
The models think the Atlantic is about to come Alive! O_o Euro looks to hit me, and the GFS gives us a close call. Not to mention several other AOI pop up in the long range, looks like there's gonna be some sleepless nights ahead.

Also of note, NHC must have high confidence in the African wave as they already made it an invest at 0/20 % O_o Unusual to get it that low...

Get both machines fired up Ron

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 07:35 AM
Post #130




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 936
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 13 2017, 08:16 AM) *
Get both machines fired up Ron


Looks like the forcast of the MJO going full speed in the Atlantic might be correct O_o Glad I bought these puppies at auction last week, 60gal for the car and gennies!

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Aug 13 2017, 07:38 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 07:38 AM
Post #131




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Aug 13 2017, 08:35 AM) *
Looks like the forcast of the MJO hoing full speed in the Atlantic might be correct O_o Glad I bought these puppies at auction last week, 60gal for the car and gennies!

Those are great to have. I have a smaller type (and only one at that) for the two genies and they are not only way easy, but also a whole lot safer way to transfer.

EDIT- is that a Club Car I see in the background? Mine looks very similar. smile.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Aug 13 2017, 07:39 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 07:42 AM
Post #132




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 936
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 13 2017, 08:38 AM) *
Those are great to have. I have a smaller type (and only one at that) for the two genies and they are not only way easy, but also a whole lot safer way to transfer.

EDIT- is that a Club Car I see in the background? Mine looks very similar. smile.gif


Yup it is lol....I have about 20 of the 5 gallon plastic gas cans, they are just a PITA to use, when I saw those I couldn't pass them up. That one with the pump and water separator filter runs almost $900 each, I bought the pair for under $400. I still have like 20 gallons of gas left from Matthew last year O_o Been using it in the mower and put a few gallons in my truck every now and then.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 07:55 AM
Post #133




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Aug 13 2017, 08:42 AM) *
Yup it is lol....I have about 20 of the 5 gallon plastic gas cans, they are just a PITA to use, when I saw those I couldn't pass them up. That one with the pump and water separator filter runs almost $900 each, I bought the pair for under $400. I still have like 20 gallons of gas left from Matthew last year O_o Been using it in the mower and put a few gallons in my truck every now and then.

No doubt, I would have snatched them up too - good thing I wasn't at that auction with you, we might have got into a bidding war. (lol).

If I am forced to go the the 5 gal (I like the steel ones), I used a battery op transfer pump I bought somewhere from online source. It's the next best thing to the small hand pump transfer unit I have.

BTW - you'd probably be shocked at where I can run with the Club Car (I know I was, at first)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 08:17 AM
Post #134




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,514
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Operationals
Attached Image


ECMWF ensembles
Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 13 2017, 09:01 AM
Post #135




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,419
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





GOES of TD8 and 91L


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 09:15 AM
Post #136




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,514
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 13 2017, 10:01 AM) *
GOES of TD8 and 91L


Attached Image



Fantastic low angle shot, love how the clouds are bubbling up off the lesser Antilles and casting shadows.

Last I heard, GOES 16 goes operational in the 16th. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Aug 13 2017, 09:15 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Aug 13 2017, 10:09 AM
Post #137




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,528
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 13 2017, 04:53 AM) *
So then, when the next run of the might Euro, after the threatening looking CMC, look like this - then what?


Attached Image



It seems the tropics will pick up big time.

But it makes sence. We are getting close to September, which screams, the pick of tropical cyclone season/ the most active part of the season historically.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 05:40 PM
Post #138




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,514
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





13.12z Operationals

North Americans taking the high road, Europeans the low road.

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Aug 14 2017, 06:19 AM
Post #139




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,514
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





I was mistaken about which wave the ECMWF develops. 91L is out of scene to the right in this image.

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Yesterday, 03:14 PM
Post #140




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,622
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





The CMC amuses me. I figured this belongs here since all originated in the EA. Imagine this outcome though.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

7 Pages V  « < 5 6 7
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 19th August 2017 - 07:19 PM