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> June 11-16 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 See Text - Forecasts & OBS
SEMIweather
post Jun 14 2011, 07:46 PM
Post #81




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Widespread power outages in Norman.

QUOTE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 PM TSTM WND DMG NORMAN 35.22N 97.44W
06/14/2011 CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS WITH NUMEROUS POWER
POLES DOWN NEAR 12TH AND ROBINSON.


--------------------
University of Oklahoma Meteorology Major - Class of 2014


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 08:20 PM
Post #82




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QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARKS...

...MID-MS VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
INCREASING ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. ONE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN ERN NEB WILL
MOVE SEWD INTO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING WHERE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN NRN TO CNTRL MO AND SRN
IA...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. IN
ADDITION...A 45 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET CREATING FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN IA SWD INTO CNTRL MO WHERE AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THIS WILL HELP MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CORES. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS
AND MOVE SEWD DOWN THE GRADIENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO WRN IL
AND ERN MO LATE THIS EVENING WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE
ENHANCED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND SWWD ACROSS SW MO BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MORE ISOLATED.

...SRN PLAINS...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NORTHWEST TX. THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE PROFILER IN SRN OK SHOWING A 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 55 KT. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TEMPS-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 30-40 DEGREES
F WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT RESULTING IN VERY
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/15/2011


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 08:22 PM
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QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN/CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 475...

VALID 150047Z - 150145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 475 CONTINUES.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS FAR
NWRN/N-CNTRL MO AND SWRN IA OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS...THOUGH ACTIVITY
HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY THUS FAR LIKELY DUE TO INHIBITION IN THE
850-700 MB WARM LAYER /OBSERVED IN 00Z TOP SOUNDING/. SUBJECTIVE SFC
ANALYSIS FROM 00Z PLACES A 1002 MB SFC LOW NEAR STJ WITH A COLD
FRONT PROTRUDING S-SWD. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SEWD INTO CNTRL
MO...WITH A DISCRETE STORM CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NEAR CDJ.

UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS PROGRESSING EWD AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS...WITH INCREASING FORCED ASCENT AIDING IN WEAKENING
INHIBITION. WITH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST SOLUTION OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HI-RESOLUTION
WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS LATER
TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS.

..ROGERS.. 06/15/2011


ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 38059427 41139548 41129243 38079132 38059427

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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 08:45 PM
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couple 0Z soundings

SGF


DVN


ILX
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 08:50 PM
Post #85




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ILX still thinking things are a go, just delayed by the cap

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
836 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 836 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KANSAS CITY HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MO. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH NOW ABOUT
MIDWAY ACROSS KS IS FINALLY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT...BUT A
LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF MO
STORMS AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LINCOLN SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG
CAP...WHICH SHOULD HOLD DOWN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING UNTIL
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG
FORCING WITH THE MCS/UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE. THE LATEST HI-RES
RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE CONVECTION NOT
REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL PERHAPS 06Z. WILL THEREFORE TAKE
EVENING POPS DOWN TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE BUT KEEP THEM
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS TRANSITIONING FROM INITIAL DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL OVER MO TO STRONG WINDS AND MORE
ISOLATED HAIL OVER IL. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE ALONG WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...SO HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
AS IS.

04
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 08:55 PM
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CIN almost gone from Northern half of MO



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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 09:04 PM
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Looks to be heading a bit NE of what HRRR was showing earlier, going to head to bed now. Weather radio should wake me up if it works this time.

Supercell composite up to 36 in central MO

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jdrenken
post Jun 14 2011, 09:01 PM
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The WAA is moving NE out of Central MO and those storms around Chillicothe are going up in a region of 11C 700mb temps. Only a matter of time.


--------------------
QUOTE
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WeatherMonger
post Jun 14 2011, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jun 14 2011, 09:01 PM) *
The WAA is moving NE out of Central MO and those storms around Chillicothe are going up in a region of 11C 700mb temps. Only a matter of time.

Warned for 60mph and quarter hail, and so it begins
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jdrenken
post Jun 14 2011, 09:10 PM
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QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
906 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
LINN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 901 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HALE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKFIELD...WHEELING...MEADVILLE...LACLEDE...LINN
US...BROWNING...
CHULA...LAREDO...PURDIN...REGER AND HUMPHREYS.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Jun 14 2011, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
922 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.UPDATE...
/917 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

IT TOOK A WHILE FOR THE STORMS TO BREAK THROUGH THE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS...BUT ROBUST CONVECTION IS NOW TAKING OFF OVER N CENTRAL MO...
BUT BELIEVE THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CERTAINLY TRY TO WORK
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL COOLING WORKS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THOUGHTS ON STORM EVOLUTION HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND
WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD MORPH INTO A MCS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
APPROXIMATE THE NE HALF OF OUR CWA...PRIMARILY WITH A HIGH WIND
THREAT. HAVE NOT TALKED TO SPC..BUT EXPANSION/REISSUANCE OF
WATCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS OF 1.25-1.40 WILL BE FEEDING INTO THIS
COMPLEX WITH 30-40KT LO LEVEL JET...SO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
THE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A VERY REAL
THREAT..ESPECIALLY OVER N SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THIS DANGER
INCREASED/EHNANCED DUE TO DARKNESS. WILL UPDATE FFA TO TRY TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT A BIT MORE.

FINALLY...DUE TO DELAYED ONSET OF STORMS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING.

TRUETT


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 14 2011, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1036 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1032 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROOKFIELD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BOSTON AND ETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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snowlover2
post Jun 14 2011, 11:54 PM
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Looks like there might have been 1 strong tornado tonight.

QUOTE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM TORNADO 2 W NEW BOSTON 39.95N 92.92W
06/14/2011 LINN MO STORM CHASER

LARGE CONE SHAPED TORNADO ON THE GROUND


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 15 2011, 01:02 AM
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New day 1
Attached Image


Tornado
Attached Image


Hail
Attached Image


Wind
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...MID-MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY NEAR THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE...THE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITH NEW CELLS INITIATING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM ERN MO AND ERN AR EWD
TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES
ACROSS ERN AR...WRN MS EWD INTO KY AND TN WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE STEEP. A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST FROM CNTRL KY SWD
INTO ERN TN WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT
MAY BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE.

...SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS...
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORM INITIATION SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAKLEY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 15 2011, 01:22 AM
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New day 2- OV has a "See Text" so date should go to the 16th now which i can't do even though i started the thread because posts that were moved over here ended up in front of my initial post so a mod needs to do the honors. Only OV threat should be discussed on this day.

Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SERN VA TO
ERN/SERN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
CURRENT NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD... WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FULL EXTENT OF THE
WRN STATES. THESE IMPULSES SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PROCEED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN THE E AND W TROUGHS...A
RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD EWD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF
THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 17/00Z. FARTHER W...A LEE CYCLONE
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO BENEATH SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND THEN MOVE INTO
WRN/CENTRAL KS THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED
TO STALL FROM THE MID SOUTH WWD TO NORTH TX DURING DAY 1 WILL LIFT
NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH NRN KS TO
SRN MO BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXIT REGION
OF ACCOMPANYING 50 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL JET TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION ON THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM DAY 1 COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.


This post has been edited by snowlover2: Jun 15 2011, 01:24 AM


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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jdrenken
post Jun 15 2011, 06:26 AM
Post #96




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I went ahead and extended the date, but since Day 2 is a 'see text', didn't include in the sub-title.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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The Snowman
post Jun 15 2011, 08:15 AM
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Today- Looks like potential flooding risk in west WI as per RUC.

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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The Snowman
post Jun 15 2011, 08:22 AM
Post #98




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From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





Not sure how the HRRR does this, but it hit the spot for convective activity.
It's got some pretty cool stuff at the last few bottom parameters.
HRRR 15 min Conv. Init. and Activity
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Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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Juniorrr
post Jun 15 2011, 09:02 AM
Post #99




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 12,323
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Surprised at this shield of rain headed my way tongue.gif
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 15 2011, 09:22 AM
Post #100




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 378
Joined: 21-April 11
From: Clark/Floyd County
Member No.: 25,607





Major Changes to the Day 1 Outlook
looks like the last MCS will be around long enough to thwart any kind of afternoon development for most of the northern sections of the previous day 1 outlook









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Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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