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> Arctic Sea Ice, What will happen this summer?
ohioktm250
post Jan 10 2017, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 10 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Chart of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent


ArctischePinguin

Longer term view


NSIDC


Why pick one year? That is literally his argument - that data is cherry picked or covers an insufficient time period.

He's not wrong, just off a few years. From 2012 to 2014 there was record ice extent in Antarctica.

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarc...-record-maximum

I like to stay out of the debate as well, but his questions are all things I have pondered.

This post has been edited by ohioktm250: Jan 10 2017, 05:02 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 20 2017, 11:51 PM
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Man some really crazy stuff still going on in the Northern hemisphere ice front. Looks like most of the action is seeing whether the U.S. will see cold/big storm. rolleyes.gif
Attached File  n_conc.png ( 59.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


Concentrations dont tell the whole story we are seeing continual storm intrusion into the arctic circle from the midlatitude regions. As they keep flowing into the arctic they are pumping up with it warm, moist air above the sea surface which is helping reduce ice on the Atlantic front and whatever tries to form just continually gets melted over again. Looking at the SST's we see a large portion of the Atlantic side having extremely above average temps.

Current SSTs:
Attached File  arcticsstnowcast.gif ( 84.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


Current Ice thickness:
Attached File  arcticictnowcast.gif ( 61.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


Unfortunately I am not able to post this gif for the whole year but here is the URL (might update daily)
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/na...st_anim365d.gif


Ill post in another post the SST anoms around the globe. But please do not let these graphs misguide what is actually happening thickness is down well below where it needs to be this time of year and thickness is in dire straights.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 20 2017, 11:51 PM
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Attached File  sst.daily.anom.gif ( 101.21K ) Number of downloads: 3


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MaineJay
post Mar 20 2017, 05:24 AM
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Welcome to melt season.

Let's start with volume. PIOMASS figures are at the lowest in the data set

Total volume
Attached File  BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY__1_.png ( 121.15K ) Number of downloads: 1



Average thickness, if extent was anomaly high, this could be explained by lots of peripheral sea ice.
Attached File  Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png ( 226.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/pro...volume-anomaly/

But sea ice extent is actually lowest on record.
Attached File  N_iqr_timeseries.png ( 114.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


Looking at the distribution, the very little ice greater than 2.5m thick.
Attached File  arcticictnnowcast.gif ( 65.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


And, whatt thick ice there is, is either in the Canadian archipelago, or heading out the Fram Strait, and doomed at this point.
Attached File  ezgif_3_c5a2a2c807.gif ( 839.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hudson Bay doesn't look particularly thick either.

Despite a cold winter in Siberia, the ice situation on the Russian side is less than great, and while it's still well below freezing, anomalies in the region are progged to be fairly high.

Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_1.png ( 180.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png ( 174.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Weather will have time be quite cold, calm, and cloudy this summer to prevent a significant jerky seating in my humble opinion.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 20 2017, 05:25 AM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 20 2017, 06:24 AM) *
Welcome to melt season.

Let's start with volume. PIOMASS figures are at the lowest in the data set

Total volume
Attached File  BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1_CY__1_.png ( 121.15K ) Number of downloads: 1

Average thickness, if extent was anomaly high, this could be explained by lots of peripheral sea ice.
Attached File  Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png ( 226.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/pro...volume-anomaly/

But sea ice extent is actually lowest on record.
Attached File  N_iqr_timeseries.png ( 114.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


Looking at the distribution, the very little ice greater than 2.5m thick.
Attached File  arcticictnnowcast.gif ( 65.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


And, whatt thick ice there is, is either in the Canadian archipelago, or heading out the Fram Strait, and doomed at this point.
Attached File  ezgif_3_c5a2a2c807.gif ( 839.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hudson Bay doesn't look particularly thick either.

Despite a cold winter in Siberia, the ice situation on the Russian side is less than great, and while it's still well below freezing, anomalies in the region are progged to be fairly high.

Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_1.png ( 180.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ecmwf_ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png ( 174.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Weather will have time be quite cold, calm, and cloudy this summer to prevent a significant jerky seating in my humble opinion.


Not looking good best thing that the arctic can look to is as you said cloudy and cool conditions as we head into the summer time to help slow the rate of melting. What worries me the most and has been consistent is the periphery regions of the ice have been getting hit hard over the past couple years and this looks to continue. This year has been exceptionally hard on core ice from about 80N and have hurt a lot of the of ice pack. Transport has been at or slightly above average out of the Fram strait this year but what has been more noticeable is that the Multi-year ice has been scooting out. This has been the result of a consistent barrage of of storms from the Atlantic side shifting the ice out.

It worries me for sure as we go into the melt season and regrowth in september/october. Another thing that has been consistently happening is when we get into refreeze we rapidly freeze up the ice and then it seems the cold gets displaced over to siberia every time we start to refreeze. Maybe this is the pattern we see with less sea ice, 2 SDs+ below average.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 20 2017, 01:43 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 10 2017, 02:47 PM
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Well after the lowest recorded volume on record earlier this year the Arctic has been experiencing relatively average to slightly below average conditions. The temps this year have been on the cool side for most of the polar region (CAB), but models have been picking up on the idea of the Pacific side really taking a hit as we progress through july. It is always hard for predictions to actually occur in the models since well we have seen it just as much with much waffling they tend to do. Currently if my eyes do not deceive me we are currently sitting 5th lowest on record for sea ice with the CAB at this point holding fairly decently.

Attached File  Arctic_AMSR2_nic_small.jpg ( 100.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d1.gif ( 703K ) Number of downloads: 2


While greenland has had fairly low melt numbers as well mainly on the eastern side, western regions have taken a bit of a hit and a big reason we saw large spikes in the numbers.

Attached File  greenland_daily_melt_plot_tmb.png ( 38.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


We are still in about a 2 month period of melt to continue in these regions will show another update in august to see where we are at after possibly a big melt in july for the pacific side of the ice. Amazingly the Atlantic side has sustained rather well after being in some of the worst conditions besides the chucki (SP?) area this past winter. Im sure many saw the Atlantic portion of the CAB got bombarded with storms moisture and warm temps.

One more to throw in there.

Attached File  ice.arc.1.png ( 25.68K ) Number of downloads: 2


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telejunkie
post Oct 2 2017, 08:01 PM
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Favorable pattern through spring and summer kept the arctic ice from a drastic decline. We'll see what this winter has to bring but personally appreciate a cooler, more ice laden arctic to get things going:
"On September 13, Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent of 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles), the eighth lowest in the 38-year satellite record. The overall rate of ice loss this summer was slowed by a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure focused over the central Arctic Ocean."
Source


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 4 2017, 12:48 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Oct 2 2017, 09:01 PM) *
Favorable pattern through spring and summer kept the arctic ice from a drastic decline. We'll see what this winter has to bring but personally appreciate a cooler, more ice laden arctic to get things going:
"On September 13, Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent of 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles), the eighth lowest in the 38-year satellite record. The overall rate of ice loss this summer was slowed by a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure focused over the central Arctic Ocean."
Source


Wooooo someone else posts in here other than me lol. I kid but yes the pattern we saw in April to june was rather nice for the arctic to keep a good amount of its ice still in tact this seems to have been in some amounts of a factor the snow extent over much of the northern hemisphere lasting a little bit longer in regions, maybe because there was more in certain areas. With an overall calm summer as well it will be nice to see if extent holds in the spring and summer more in the future as may change the albedo and heating of the oceans up there in the summer but that is wishful thinking at this point. The volume needs a rather strong recovery but unfortunately has not even been noted in the past years at all like extent and area have messed around with from time to time.

After last winter with such large amounts of heat up there im curious to see what folllows with winters coming up if we have a similar pattern or not.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 29 2017, 01:33 PM
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Well not much update has come on this front which kind of surprises me with how poorly last year was for the sea ice.

So far this year is not following like last year which is good the last cool year is 2011 and 2013 where we followed the average but then right around late november things changed to a warmer setting so we will have to see if it follows progression as many years since 2007 have with mid winter warming and temp spikes.

Attached File  arctic_temp_10_29.png ( 6.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


Still quite a lot of oceanic heat to contend with especially on the pacific side. That will be another interesting thing to watch since last year we saw the chucki never really quite freeze up until january i believe and even then there were still quite a few openings.

Attached File  satanom.arc.d_00.png ( 389.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


The ice has met up with the rest of the pack in respect to sea ice area and extent, still on the low end of the pack but better by far then last year!

Attached File  nsidc_global_area_byyear_b.png ( 601.4K ) Number of downloads: 3


In no means is this a recovery though the ice is still relatively fragile and needs multiple years of rebuilding and cold to see any type of recovery idea. Until sea ice volume actually starts to show an uptick and we rid the area of the large positive SST anoms then we can start really honing in. Until the it is surely maintaining itself but fear we may have a winter that hits the arctic again maybe not as severe as last year but halt a lot of progression.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 1 2017, 02:47 PM
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Got this cool site for tracking ocean temps and forecasts for sea ice as well as temps and currents.

site

Attached File  psy4qv3r1_20171125_arc_sea_ice_thickness_0m.png ( 79.17K ) Number of downloads: 3


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Solstice
post Jan 24 2018, 05:46 PM
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Not looking good. Especially with the temperatures the ensembles are spewing out sweltering temperature anomalies.

Attached File  Screenshot_2018_01_24_at_5.45.26_PM.png ( 106.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gem_ens_T2ma_nhem_49.png ( 184.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 24 2018, 06:01 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 24 2018, 07:46 PM) *
Not looking good. Especially with the temperatures the ensembles are spewing out sweltering temperature anomalies.

Attached File  Screenshot_2018_01_24_at_5.45.26_PM.png ( 106.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  gem_ens_T2ma_nhem_49.png ( 184.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Less thickening of CAB ice which wont be great if we wanna try to keep multi year ice around but bound to happen when we get cold spilling on either side of the globe. By far the Atlantic side is struggling this year while bering sea area is holding its own but still well below where it should be.

Attached File  color_newdisp_anomaly_global_lat_lon_ophi0.png ( 421.47K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  n_anom_hires.png ( 222.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Atlantic side can be contributed to +AMO conditions pretty sure it was last month we had a strong or the strongest signal of AMO. Pacific seemed to have rid a lot of its warmth for now from a few years ago with the RRR and super nino.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 24 2018, 06:03 PM


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stxprowl
post Feb 24 2018, 07:47 PM
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ge-mzD0nhPE


Attached File  CBF3E1AE_5D04_4BCB_83F1_498D11716FB0.png ( 965.47K ) Number of downloads: 2

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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 4 2018, 03:33 PM
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Ouch... What is ones booming weather is another slow demise. Unfortunately we are not holding the ice really well this year again setting probably either 2nd lowest or 3rd max extent unless we get more warming to take place. This probably looks like the last hurrah for now.

Attached File  n_conc_hires.png ( 241.43K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  meanT_2018.png ( 6.08K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png ( 24.15K ) Number of downloads: 0



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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 1 2018, 03:45 PM
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As we draw to a close another season up in the Arctic we see still fairly similar representation as we have seen in the past decade or so. Extent suffering pretty similar to last year volume and thickness have a small uptick and have some thicker ice pack here and there.
Attached File  thk_28.png ( 107.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


We need those 2-4m regions to go across the Arctic toward Russia/Siberia region if we wanna start to see possibly some reprieve from this but will have to wait and see if we can do so. Temps while not terrible this year we had some pretty intense spikes especially with the mid to end of February and into March with the SSW, but we are still holding the average temp about 5C above normal across the region where it would normally be the coldest.

One thing this year and years of recent have shown is the cold land/warm arctic has led to large snow amounts and depths right around the Arctic. Here are snow depth anoms and water equivalent really impressive stuff out there right especially snow/water equivalent I wonder what role that may play if the snow happens to have more water in those northern areas I feel it may change the snow consistency which would change the melting ability of that snow/ice.

Attached File  plot_anom_sdep.png ( 427.23K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  mhs_swe_des.gif ( 30.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


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post Apr 1 2018, 03:53 PM
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Here is another look at this year compared to the average thickness of 2011-2017 neat look at where it is growing and areas still suffering. Gotta see how we go into June and July this year and if we have a similar pattern as we did last year should mean we hold ice a little better as well.

Attached File  BPIOMAS_ThicknessAnomalyCurrent.png ( 989.54K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Apr 1 2018, 03:54 PM


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post Apr 15 2018, 06:53 AM
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Is there a Solar Thread?


I think more interesting to me is the low peak, not the lows themselves.. although hard to ignore that.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Attached File  Sun2.jpg ( 115.47K ) Number of downloads: 1



Check it out! The sun has been blank for 61% of this year! blink.gif

https://twitter.com/JWSpry/status/984208605887938560

Attached File  Tweet1.jpg ( 109.48K ) Number of downloads: 0



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MaineJay
post Apr 15 2018, 07:32 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 15 2018, 07:53 AM) *
Is there a Solar Thread?
I think more interesting to me is the low peak, not the lows themselves.. although hard to ignore that.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression


Check it out! The sun has been blank for 61% of this year! blink.gif

https://twitter.com/JWSpry/status/984208605887938560



Lol at the Maunder minimum. Guess we are heading to an ice age... laugh.gif ridiculous.

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post Apr 15 2018, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 15 2018, 07:32 AM) *
Lol at the Maunder minimum. Guess we are heading to an ice age... laugh.gif ridiculous.


lol, I knew that would get a chuckle. Regarding the peak... It was the lowest "peak" since late 1800s/Early 1900s. If the next peak is similar or lower, it will be first time since the Dalton minimum era (not Maunder) with 2 cycles in a row. Nobody is making predictions, just stating history.

Source:
QUOTE
"Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age""



Can't find the source for this graphic. I think it was created with the raw data numbers and just uploaded here?

Anyway - I think it's the peaks that we need to watch, not the low sunspot numbers as many are glued to. Although that part of the quietness and pattern of it so cant be ignored either.

Attached File  Sun3.jpg ( 270.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


Cool graphic by NASA on the previous Cycle!

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth...cle-primer.html

QUOTE
it is believed by many scientists that the prolonged solar minima and its corresponding decrease in solar energy cooled Earth. Mapping out the details of how much the change in solar energy could have produced such an effect remains an unresolved area of research.


Attached File  Sun4.jpg ( 95.87K ) Number of downloads: 0

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