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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
OSNW3
post Sep 8 2014, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(hbgweather @ Sep 8 2014, 03:05 PM) *
please specify to us weather weenie rookies. Thanks.


If you hold end A of the above string and try to give it a continuous up-and-down motion, with a little adjustment of the pace of oscillations, you can make at least the following waveforms:



Each wave travels from A to B and gets reflected at B. When each reflected wave reaches point A, it gets reflected again and the process repeats. Of course the hand motion keeps putting energy into the system by constantly generating waves that are in phase with the returned waves creating the above waveforms. Such waves are called "standing waves."

MORE HERE

Consider the Rossby wave train a standing wave. Consider the northward propagation of the Indian Summer Monsoon the source of energy that jolts the motion, or the "hand motion", mentioned above, putting "new energy" into the system. Up until last week the ISM had been weak. Last week it exploded.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 8 2014, 10:01 PM


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OSNW3
post Sep 8 2014, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 8 2014, 04:26 PM) *
I'd bet money you could make a private forecasting company with all the stuff you've got there. Fantastic work as always.


I'd bet against you. smile.gif

Thanks. Hopefully some of this junk can help us out someday. If not, at the least it keeps me entertained.


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MaineJay
post Sep 9 2014, 05:51 AM
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I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!

Attached File  harms_anim.gif ( 39.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Sep 9 2014, 06:07 AM


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OSNW3
post Sep 9 2014, 06:24 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2014, 05:51 AM) *
I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!

Attached File  harms_anim.gif ( 39.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


Not nonsense. Take a look at the first post in this thread. Analyze the chart that shows the average daily correlation for each component from last year. The 60-90 day long-term, 30-60 day mid-term, and the 10-20 day short-term. Notice the sine waves? Notice the difference in frequency? Amplitude is even more evident when we analyze the dominant harmonic, see example in the same looking chart earlier in the first post. Now relate this to your guitar string idea.


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OSNW3
post Sep 9 2014, 07:00 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2014, 05:51 AM) *
I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!

Attached File  harms_anim.gif ( 39.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


Also, this Rossby Primer is a fun read. Then consider the high mountain areas of the world your fingers along the strings on a guitar? Or perhaps a rock the snake has to travel over. smile.gif

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 9 2014, 07:00 AM


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hbgweather
post Sep 9 2014, 09:45 AM
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so from what I'm understanding is this is the whole cause to the change in the LRC come October. Going from one pattern to the next needs that kick of new energy to change up the wave lengths.?
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OSNW3
post Sep 9 2014, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(hbgweather @ Sep 9 2014, 09:45 AM) *
so from what I'm understanding is this is the whole cause to the change in the LRC come October. Going from one pattern to the next needs that kick of new energy to change up the wave lengths.?


It is one idea. Still seeking the ultimate truth. wink.gif

As for the LRC, it is difficult to say what Lezak thinks causes his cycle change. In all the years I have been around it I don't think he has ever stated a cause for the effect. Don't confuse the LRC with what we are really studying here. This goes beyond the magic.


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hbgweather
post Sep 9 2014, 01:19 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 9 2014, 01:51 PM) *
It is one idea. Still seeking the ultimate truth. wink.gif

As for the LRC, it is difficult to say what Lezak thinks causes his cycle change. In all the years I have been around it I don't think he has ever stated a cause for the effect. Don't confuse the LRC with what we are really studying here. This goes beyond the magic.



Fully understand not confusing the LRC with a new cycle. Just to me, since I know basically nothing about these events, it seemed to coincide with one another since the new cycle for the year begins around October and the monsoon is before these changes. The monsoon is late this year correct? Would that mean the new cycle will begin late? It appears the monsoon also packs quite a punch. I know its hard to explain things to people who enjoy learning weather as a hobby rather than following its exact science. I have more questions than answers and suck at math. Therefor I'm limited in my basic knowledge of weather. I'm going to try and follow this time around with the cycles.
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OSNW3
post Sep 9 2014, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(hbgweather @ Sep 9 2014, 01:19 PM) *
Fully understand not confusing the LRC with a new cycle. Just to me, since I know basically nothing about these events, it seemed to coincide with one another since the new cycle for the year begins around October and the monsoon is before these changes. The monsoon is late this year correct? Would that mean the new cycle will begin late? It appears the monsoon also packs quite a punch. I know its hard to explain things to people who enjoy learning weather as a hobby rather than following its exact science. I have more questions than answers and suck at math. Therefor I'm limited in my basic knowledge of weather. I'm going to try and follow this time around with the cycles.


This isn't a "new cycle", I believe we are just calling it what it really is and backing our findings with science and data. The ideas have been around for quite sometime and are used daily. If anything is different than what is already out there, it could be our application to long term forecasting. I will give credit where credit is due, in my mind the LRC exists as a 3rd or 4th harmonic of the overall wave. And now that I am thinking about it, I believe GL does explain how his cycle forms. Don't quote me on this...

Attached File  lrc003.png ( 206.09K ) Number of downloads: 0



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Undertakerson
post Sep 9 2014, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 9 2014, 04:00 PM) *
This isn't a "new cycle", I believe we are just calling it what it really is and backing our findings with science and data. The ideas have been around for quite sometime and are used daily. If anything is different than what is already out there, it could be our application to long term forecasting. I will give credit where credit is due, in my mind the LRC exists as a 3rd or 4th harmonic of the overall wave. And now that I am thinking about it, I believe GL does explain how his cycle forms. Don't quote me on this...

Attached File  lrc003.png ( 206.09K ) Number of downloads: 0

From the origin post

QUOTE
With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season


I too took that to mean that the pattern re-establishes itself (but does it do so, exactly) and is, therefore, new. In much the same way a flowing river is always "new" - never static or entirely predictable.

I guess I only mean to ask for clarification. I find this thread deeply interesting and wish to follow along better.

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OSNW3
post Sep 9 2014, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 9 2014, 04:00 PM) *
From the origin post
I too took that to mean that the pattern re-establishes itself (but does it do so, exactly) and is, therefore, new. In much the same way a flowing river is always "new" - never static or entirely predictable.

I guess I only mean to ask for clarification. I find this thread deeply interesting and wish to follow along better.


Ah yes. That is confusing. My apologies. I was referring to a name in which to call it. Like the "LRC" or "new cycle". That is what I thought I was responding to.

As for new recurring patterns, yes, there will be some new ones. Always looking forward to them. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Sep 9 2014, 09:57 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM) *
Gnarly.


Now we are talking. BSR and TR all up in this map.

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_wpac_10.png ( 427.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


The timing is interesting. Will the BSR be 2.5 weeks or 3 weeks? And, does the same GFS model know about the TR? wink.gif


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OSNW3
post Sep 10 2014, 06:08 AM
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Joplinmet never lets me down. Stay classy DH. smile.gif

http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/09/09/tuesd...the-long-range/

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OSNW3
post Sep 10 2014, 06:11 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 9 2014, 09:57 PM) *
Now we are talking. BSR and TR all up in this map.

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_wpac_10.png ( 427.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


The timing is interesting. Will the BSR be 2.5 weeks or 3 weeks? And, does the same GFS model know about the TR? wink.gif


Depending on the timing, we will begin hearing/reading about how it fits into the new pattern from GL/DH. Have we seen this before though? Last week of July sticks out. ~60 days.




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OSNW3
post Sep 10 2014, 01:59 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 9 2014, 09:57 PM) *
Now we are talking. BSR and TR all up in this map.

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_wpac_10.png ( 427.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


The timing is interesting. Will the BSR be 2.5 weeks or 3 weeks?


Have you peeped the LR in any of the models? That was a joke.

See last week of September.

ISO>BSR>TR (Obviously we'll have to wait on the Typhoon Rule to verify, but no matter)

The recurring Rossby dominant harmonic is 33-35 and 18-20 days today. With 34 and 19 days being the top dogs in the sequence. Give a day or two for response of the 2nd harmonic, current 3rd harmonic is around 54-60 days. In regard to the RR ISO see the last week of July for the recurring pattern, in case of the BSR see Bering Sea now through hour 84.

Just one example out of many to come. smile.gif

EDIT: I should add, I am looking at the GFS in regard to model.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 10 2014, 02:01 PM


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jdrenken
post Sep 11 2014, 10:26 AM
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My latest...

QUOTE
Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

We have a strong system moving into Manchuria on September 14th which pumps up a ridge in the few days prior. This translates to the 21st of September for Central Missouri. Immediately following is a trough that last from September 15th through the 18th with zonal flow between the 18th and 20th of September. So…look for Central Missouri to experience below normal temperatures from the 22nd into the 25th with a moderating trend. Then, we have yet another “Manchurian candidate” on the 24th that pumps up an even stronger ridge until the 26th. This means the beginning of October will be well above normal.

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September. Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe. Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea. This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.


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OSNW3
post Sep 12 2014, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 11 2014, 10:26 AM) *
My latest...


Constructive criticism. I think you need to create some sort of visualization for your forecasts. It is difficult to interpret the words as you "see" it. Show maps of what you see in the BSR/TR regions and then maps of temp/pcpn departures in the COMO region. Or something. Charts are cool too.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 12 2014, 10:13 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 12 2014, 08:39 AM) *
Constructive criticism. I think you need to create some sort of visualization for your forecasts. It is difficult to interpret the words as you "see" it. Show maps of what you see in the BSR/TR regions and then maps of temp/pcpn departures in the COMO region. Or something. Charts are cool too.

this would be pretty cool....time allowing. Wouldnt even have to be anything more than a paint doc. Look at Brett A ECM monthly interprutation maps laugh.gif
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OSNW3
post Sep 13 2014, 08:57 AM
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I am certain I just overheard TWC mention the storm in GOA and then say it translates to a trough in the East.


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OSNW3
post Sep 13 2014, 10:07 AM
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A climate region 6 (East North Central) dominant short-term frequency "reset" this AM.

EDIT: The 1 through 10 on the top of the table is the top-10 correlation days. Not climate regions.






On the accumulated chart, if there isn't a blue bar associated with it, it is likely a non factor in the overall wave. This is measuring r >= 0.4, 20% of all days.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 13 2014, 10:30 AM


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