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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
scwxman
post Jan 30 2017, 09:18 AM
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This post has been edited by scwxman: Jan 30 2017, 09:19 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 31 2017, 11:56 PM
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Just for clarity purposes... we are not yet under an official El Nino Watch. Still under La Nina Advisory. However, everything I see so far points to an El Nino in 2017-18.

I just want it to be documented on this thread that it's the end of January during an official La Nina, and the latest weekly temperature for Nino 1+2 is +2.0C.

CODE

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1


And finally... if this El Nino is for real, we should see a major MJO wave in early March... as we did in March 1997 and March 2015.

Here's the current MJO forecast through mid-February. If this were to happen 20-30 days later, I'd be more convinced about a more significant El Nino event... however, I don't know if a strong MJO wave in mid-February means anything


850mb zonal wind anomalies show that this MJO will force some very strong trade winds along and just east of the IDL. This will help keep the La Nina alive more than help fuel an El Nino, like it did in March 1997 and 2015.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 31 2017, 11:57 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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MaineJay
post Feb 1 2017, 05:00 AM
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Ambitious trying to peer through the inevitable "sprung barrier". smile.gif


I'm gonna start chances off at. 30% El Niņo, 20% La Niņa, 50% neutral.

I'm conservative, especially at this lead time.


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bingobobbo
post Feb 1 2017, 01:26 PM
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Inauguration year Decembers for years ending in 7 that I remember have been snowy--both December 1997 and December 1977 were very snowy here. However, December 1957 wasn't--but Jan-Feb 1958 were. However, I am not sure how strong the El Nino was during 1957-58 (it may not even have been called El Nino back then!). However, Feb 1978 and Feb 1998 were complete opposites around here--one warm/wet and the other frigid/dry (We were too far west to get more than 8-9 inches of snow from the blizzard). Who knows what next February will be like--this post should probably be in next winter's thread!


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scwxman
post Feb 1 2017, 06:41 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 31 2017, 11:56 PM) *
Just for clarity purposes... we are not yet under an official El Nino Watch. Still under La Nina Advisory. However, everything I see so far points to an El Nino in 2017-18.

I just want it to be documented on this thread that it's the end of January during an official La Nina, and the latest weekly temperature for Nino 1+2 is +2.0C.

CODE

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1


And finally... if this El Nino is for real, we should see a major MJO wave in early March... as we did in March 1997 and March 2015.

Here's the current MJO forecast through mid-February. If this were to happen 20-30 days later, I'd be more convinced about a more significant El Nino event... however, I don't know if a strong MJO wave in mid-February means anything


850mb zonal wind anomalies show that this MJO will force some very strong trade winds along and just east of the IDL. This will help keep the La Nina alive more than help fuel an El Nino, like it did in March 1997 and 2015.



Great info!


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 10:08 PM
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CFS current forecast



this time in 2015



The difference in SSTs in the North Pacific are amazing. But in retrospect, the cards were stacked for a major Nino event in 2015; hugely positive PDO and the very warm Nino 4 region to start the year. This year, we have a borderline -PDO and the coolest water (relative to average) along the equatorial Pacific is found in the center and west.

With that said, keep in mind we still have to get through the spring forecast barrier

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 1 2017, 10:15 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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scwxman
post Feb 3 2017, 09:16 AM
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ILStormwatcher
post Feb 5 2017, 12:14 PM
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Looks like a fast leap to a moderate to maybe strong/intense Nino. Could it be possible to have 2 epic/record Ninos back to back?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 5 2017, 01:36 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Feb 5 2017, 12:14 PM) *
Looks like a fast leap to a moderate to maybe strong/intense Nino. Could it be possible to have 2 epic/record Ninos back to back?

Theoretically possible yes, but I highly doubt it right now. We still have to get past the spring barrier, and I don't think the cards are stacked this time for an especially strong Nino.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Chambana
post Feb 6 2017, 06:57 PM
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Remember this last time last year models were trying to latch onto the idea of a very strong Nina, and we reached weak status instead and struggled to do so. I would say a strong Nino could
Most certainly be tossed out, I'm going low end moderate.
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scwxman
post Feb 8 2017, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Feb 6 2017, 06:57 PM) *
Remember this last time last year models were trying to latch onto the idea of a very strong Nina, and we reached weak status instead and struggled to do so. I would say a strong Nino could
Most certainly be tossed out, I'm going low end moderate.


I don't have a crystal ball either. My feeling is that if the waters were too warm to let a strong Nina form, then the odds of a strong Nino look better?


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2017, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Feb 8 2017, 11:15 AM) *
I don't have a crystal ball either. My feeling is that if the waters were too warm to let a strong Nina form, then the odds of a strong Nino look better?

That's not how it works.

We didn't get a strong Nina because the oceanic-atmospheric pattern didn't allow for it to happen. For a strong Nina to form, you need extremely strong trade winds. (As a refresher, Ninas form when strong trade winds (easterly winds) are present; the winds act to transport water from the Peruvian coast, where water is quite cool, out to the Pacific where the water is much warmer on average)

Over this winter, we've had periods of strong trade winds, but nothing near what you need for a strong Nina. Additionally, the periods of strong trade winds weren't centered around the eastern Pacific... more centered in the east-central Pacific. So the water that was transported west wasn't as cold as it could be. This is also why this has been more of a central-based or Modoki Nina.

For a strong Nino, you need the trade winds to not only reverse, but you gotta have them blow strongly from the west to transport the warm Pacific water to the eastern regions, which are much cooler.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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scwxman
post Feb 8 2017, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 8 2017, 02:37 PM) *
That's not how it works.

We didn't get a strong Nina because the oceanic-atmospheric pattern didn't allow for it to happen. For a strong Nina to form, you need extremely strong trade winds. (As a refresher, Ninas form when strong trade winds (easterly winds) are present; the winds act to transport water from the Peruvian coast, where water is quite cool, out to the Pacific where the water is much warmer on average)

Over this winter, we've had periods of strong trade winds, but nothing near what you need for a strong Nina. Additionally, the periods of strong trade winds weren't centered around the eastern Pacific... more centered in the east-central Pacific. So the water that was transported west wasn't as cold as it could be. This is also why this has been more of a central-based or Modoki Nina.

For a strong Nino, you need the trade winds to not only reverse, but you gotta have them blow strongly from the west to transport the warm Pacific water to the eastern regions, which are much cooler.


As usual, thank you for not just giving a comment, but explaining it.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Feb 8 2017, 03:15 PM) *
As usual, thank you for not just giving a comment, but explaining it.

No problem. It's known that there are precursors to a major El Nino. If you look at the posts in March of 2015 in the El Nino and Spring/winter thread, you'll see there was a strong MJO event that was very similar to 1997 in magnitude and timing.

We're having a strong MJO event but this is early March and I haven't seen anything that indicates this is anything of significance for the upcoming ENSO event. That's not to say it doesn't exist, because I just haven't done the research. But I bet it would be hyped really quick and word would spread around if there was something.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Feb 9 2017, 02:54 PM
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The IRI plumes updated today.



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NorEaster07
post Feb 12 2017, 08:33 AM
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Goodbye Nina, Hello Neutral, see you soon Nino?

QUOTE
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niņa Advisory


EL NIŅO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 February 2017


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017. La Niņa conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Niņo index values were -0.3°C in the westernmost Niņo-4 and Niņo3.4 regions, and +1.5°C in the easternmost Niņo-1+2 region (Fig. 2). The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during January and was slightly positive when averaged across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds were near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.


Attached File  Nino3.jpg ( 168.88K ) Number of downloads: 0

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scwxman
post Feb 12 2017, 11:32 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 12 2017, 08:33 AM) *
Goodbye Nina, Hello Neutral, see you soon Nino?

Attached File  Nino3.jpg ( 168.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


Nice warm plume forming east.




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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 12 2017, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 1 2017, 01:56 AM) *
Just for clarity purposes... we are not yet under an official El Nino Watch. Still under La Nina Advisory. However, everything I see so far points to an El Nino in 2017-18.

I just want it to be documented on this thread that it's the end of January during an official La Nina, and the latest weekly temperature for Nino 1+2 is +2.0C.

CODE

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1
25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1


And finally... if this El Nino is for real, we should see a major MJO wave in early March... as we did in March 1997 and March 2015.

Here's the current MJO forecast through mid-February. If this were to happen 20-30 days later, I'd be more convinced about a more significant El Nino event... however, I don't know if a strong MJO wave in mid-February means anything


850mb zonal wind anomalies show that this MJO will force some very strong trade winds along and just east of the IDL. This will help keep the La Nina alive more than help fuel an El Nino, like it did in March 1997 and 2015.



Nice analysis. Looks like things have been at a real stalemate at or just west of the IDL for quite awhile. If we dont really see motion then I would halt my thinking for seeing (moderate/strong) nino conditions as well. As you said lets see if we see a spring up in MJO activity as we move into march and even early april that will be a tell tale.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Feb 12 2017, 04:47 PM


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grace
post Feb 16 2017, 09:16 AM
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A moderate Nino 2 years after a Super is unprecedented in recorded history. Eric Webber says might have occurred 1828-30 but gotta remember that's reconstruction data.

If....& I mean if it occurs it's hard to argue it's not AGW related. Although with small sample size it's definitely not a given.
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scwxman
post Feb 21 2017, 05:15 PM
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