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> 2017-2018 El Niño watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 22 2017, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Feb 16 2017, 11:16 AM) *
A moderate Nino 2 years after a Super is unprecedented in recorded history. Eric Webber says might have occurred 1828-30 but gotta remember that's reconstruction data.

If....& I mean if it occurs it's hard to argue it's not AGW related. Although with small sample size it's definitely not a given.


That is the hardest part of knowing with such a small window of valuable data its hard to know and say for certain with a lot of these instances.

Gonna have to watch the IO and maritime region over the next month overall so far they have been relatively below average with a few exceptions here and there. The MJO signal while looked to get going at a nice amplitude from maritime region to about the dateline then just died and will fall to the COD but before may do a quick almost loop but fall short as it nears the IO.

Its not really looking good for another decent nino event at this juncture I would say we may see a modoki look to the Pacific as we head into the summer that may go over to a weak nino.

Oh and looks like KW upwelling in the eastern Pacific from our developments of this MJO wave showing up and warming that region fairly nice.


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MaineJay
post Feb 28 2017, 07:34 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 22 2017, 04:07 PM) *
Oh and looks like KW upwelling in the eastern Pacific from our developments of this MJO wave showing up and warming that region fairly nice.



Not sure what you mean by this. The SSTs along the Peruvian coast are reflexive of decreased upwelling. I see little to no evidence of oceanic Kelvin waves.

Attached File  nepac_anomaly_ophi0.png ( 512.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


I surmise the are three possibilities.

FIrst is the most likely IMHO, the 2015-16 Niño was so powerful that it greatly disrupted this upwelling, and with the past Niña barely coupling with the ocean, it wasn't able to reestablish eastern Pacific upwelling.

Second, the Humboldt current is advecting anonymously warm into the region, possible, but then we must ask why are these waters are so warm.

Third would be the most dire, and that is the upwelling did reestablish, however, the water at depth is no longer the same temp as climo would suggest.


I think trying to say this will be a modoki, or east based, central based, etc. Is quite difficult, but looking at the behavior in the eastern Pacific, I don't see compelling evidence for the modoki, at this time. Waaaaaaay too much can change.

Since I'm skeptical that there's an upwelling KW responsible for the Eastern warming, I done expect to see the normal upwell/downwell cycle where regions 1+2 warm and cool with the passage of the KW. Hence, cooling the eastern Pacific will require increased trades around the Galapagos. Which has not happened in a while, nor forecast to.

Attached File  20170228_073315.png ( 624.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


Longer term view
Attached File  20170228_080027.jpg ( 318.08K ) Number of downloads: 0




I remember folks trying to ram the whole modoki thing down people's throat prior to the 15-16 event, I think people just like saying the word. Sounds cool. dry.gif


BoM fortnightly update does introduce a Niño watch however.

Attached File  20170228.poama_nino34.png ( 69.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
El Niño WATCH: likelihood of El Niño in 2017 increases
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50%.
All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.
Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.
El Niño is often associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD may persist until the end of autumn.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Overview

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 28 2017, 08:00 AM


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idecline
post Feb 28 2017, 03:16 PM
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rolleyes.gif Great analysis MaineJay...

Without the significant trade winds...then the upwelling cannot happen at a very high rate...upwelling scours away the warmer surface water so that cooler water can surface...

living in California...we often have periods of strong winds from the NW which create a lot of upwelling...if the winds are light and variable they often cannot stir the surface enough to reach the cooler water below.

I agree that a temperature discrepancy would be dire indeed...me thinks that the slow onset Nino created a very disorganized tropical situation...which has resulted in our 'fortuitous' heavy rainfall in California.

idee personal rant #23,004 dry.gif all the below quote is only idee's personal view...apologies to any idee offends
QUOTE
Modoki..'shmodoki'...idee believes the whole definition of a 'modoki' El Nino is a sham...perhaps invented by JMA to get some creds in weather circles...to me a 'modoki' is not a true 'El Nino' regardless of what foreign offices say...it does not change the atmospheric patterns to the degree that true El Nino's or even La Nina's do...


This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 28 2017, 03:17 PM


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MaineJay
post Mar 3 2017, 02:56 AM
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Who else remembers this from that weather trends 360 or wherever it is.
Attached File  TPAEYtp.png ( 194.58K ) Number of downloads: 3



Wonder what they are forecasting now?

I do know they are FOS
Attached File  Screenshot_20170303_025624.jpg ( 160.32K ) Number of downloads: 2


Looks like NOAA and their conservative approach was FAR more accurate than these blowhards.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 3 2017, 02:58 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 3 2017, 03:30 AM
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Hah. I haven't thought about that site in a while.

They appeared to do well with the 2015-16 Nino... but it's become more obvious that it may have been lucky and they let it get to their head as they called out CPC and guaranteed a strong Nina. Wish that wasn't anything more than an empty promise.

Whether it's WT360 or Dr. Cohen, it irks me how people can be so blantantly wrong, cover up their faults/mistakes, yet people still follow them religiously.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 3 2017, 03:36 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 4 2017, 03:11 PM
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Spring forecasting barrier rolleyes.gif



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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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scwxman
post Mar 5 2017, 02:37 PM
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Very Neutral



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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2017, 12:39 AM
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Atmosphere really wants to continue this kind of weird ENSO setup. I guess you would technically call it neutral, but one can't ignore the fact that region 1+2 has the warmest actual SSTs out of the entire basin.



CODE
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3





As we head into the heart of the spring barrier, CFS already caved to the strong Nino outlook for the time being.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 14 2017, 12:43 AM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2017, 12:45 AM
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Since region 1+2 is rarely the warmest region in terms of SSTs, here's another look




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 14 2017, 12:47 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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scwxman
post Mar 14 2017, 09:51 AM
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Certainly don't see a strong signal here. Very Neutral so far.



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MaineJay
post Mar 15 2017, 06:02 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 14 2017, 01:45 AM) *
Since region 1+2 is rarely the warmest region in terms of SSTs, here's another look


Will be interesting watching how things evolve over the coming months.

BoM has these regions near what they were for the 15-16 Niño.
Attached File  nino1.png ( 14.32K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  nino2.png ( 16.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


And as an aside, I noticed CPC now classifies 14-15 as a Niño, making it look like a two year event. But only with 1986-2015 climo. It's still neutral, when looking at the 1981-2010 climo. I know CIPS is calling the analogs from 14-15 as occurring within "warm" events.

Perhaps it's adjusted later, again.
Attached File  Screenshot_20170315_065338.jpg ( 157.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 15 2017, 11:47 AM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 15 2017, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 28 2017, 08:34 AM) *
Not sure what you mean by this. The SSTs along the Peruvian coast are reflexive of decreased upwelling. I see little to no evidence of oceanic Kelvin waves.

Attached File  nepac_anomaly_ophi0.png ( 512.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


I surmise the are three possibilities.

FIrst is the most likely IMHO, the 2015-16 Niño was so powerful that it greatly disrupted this upwelling, and with the past Niña barely coupling with the ocean, it wasn't able to reestablish eastern Pacific upwelling.

Second, the Humboldt current is advecting anonymously warm into the region, possible, but then we must ask why are these waters are so warm.

Third would be the most dire, and that is the upwelling did reestablish, however, the water at depth is no longer the same temp as climo would suggest.
I think trying to say this will be a modoki, or east based, central based, etc. Is quite difficult, but looking at the behavior in the eastern Pacific, I don't see compelling evidence for the modoki, at this time. Waaaaaaay too much can change.

Since I'm skeptical that there's an upwelling KW responsible for the Eastern warming, I done expect to see the normal upwell/downwell cycle where regions 1+2 warm and cool with the passage of the KW. Hence, cooling the eastern Pacific will require increased trades around the Galapagos. Which has not happened in a while, nor forecast to.

Attached File  20170228_073315.png ( 624.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


Longer term view
Attached File  20170228_080027.jpg ( 318.08K ) Number of downloads: 0

I remember folks trying to ram the whole modoki thing down people's throat prior to the 15-16 event, I think people just like saying the word. Sounds cool. dry.gif
BoM fortnightly update does introduce a Niño watch however.

Attached File  20170228.poama_nino34.png ( 69.15K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Overview


Sorry had saw that you commented but got lost in a lot of other stuff.

So from looking back it may not have been exactly a KW that was surfacing rather it seems as though the WWB that occurred back in early January across the maritime/IO region set the chain of events where it looked to weaken the trades and allow our MJO wave to move a bit but kind of fizzle out. As we then moved into late January and early February we saw another decent WWB event but this time the trades did not re establish themselves allowing the MJO to form enhanced convection and traverse the western Pacific almost completely traversing the equator before dieing out around Africa/western IO region.

So what I was thinking was the initial WWB in January sent out a KW (weak) that got held up around say the IDL region and then allowed for another push from the WWB that occurred in early February that allowed the initial push of warmer waters to continue east. We can see the 20C line start to push down in the eastern portions of the Pacific but again just a rather weak wave as the western Pac/maritime region reloads with warmth. What I think may have happened was while the Amplitude of the MJO wave was there it failed to connect with the oceanic wave and did a hop skip jump over the Pac so the oceanic portion was not quite as potent as it possibly could have been. Per BOM maps it seems to make sense because region 4 saw a little warmth, if you want to even call it that, Nino 3.4 saw a better bump and is now on the decline, nino 3 saw a nice surge as well as 1+2.

Who knows it is possible im just over thinking it a bit. Curious as to why 1+2 has been warm since about January 1st and then received this extra bump up as well and will be interesting to see if we do precede to drop the temps at all.

Also wanted to add great analysis!

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 15 2017, 06:06 PM


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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 15 2017, 06:09 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 15 2017, 07:05 PM) *
Sorry had saw that you commented but got lost in a lot of other stuff.

So from looking back it may not have been exactly a KW that was surfacing rather it seems as though the WWB that occurred back in early January across the maritime/IO region set the chain of events where it looked to weaken the trades and allow our MJO wave to move a bit but kind of fizzle out. As we then moved into late January and early February we saw another decent WWB event but this time the trades did not re establish themselves allowing the MJO to form enhanced convection and traverse the western Pacific almost completely traversing the equator before dieing out around Africa/western IO region.

So what I was thinking was the initial WWB in January sent out a KW (weak) that got held up around say the IDL region and then allowed for another push from the WWB that occurred in early February that allowed the initial push of warmer waters to continue east. We can see the 20C line start to push down in the eastern portions of the Pacific but again just a rather weak wave as the western Pac/maritime region reloads with warmth. What I think may have happened was while the Amplitude of the MJO wave was there it failed to connect with the oceanic wave and did a hop skip jump over the Pac so the oceanic portion was not quite as potent as it possibly could have been. Per BOM maps it seems to make sense because region 4 saw a little warmth, if you want to even call it that, Nino 3.4 saw a better bump and is now on the decline, nino 3 saw a nice surge as well as 1+2.

Who knows it is possible im just over thinking it a bit. Curious as to why 1+2 has been warm since about January 1st and then received this extra bump up as well and will be interesting to see if we do precede to drop the temps at all.

Also wanted to add great analysis!


Also I see where maybe my wording may have been taken differently upwelling KW was meant in the sense that warmer waters were surfacing around the region, which seemed to be region 3, so that now the cooling portion of the wave should come through in the next few weeks.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2017, 12:33 AM
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Latest JAMSTEC makes a moderate Nino by fall




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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MaineJay
post Mar 16 2017, 02:22 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 15 2017, 07:05 PM) *
Sorry had saw that you commented but got lost in a lot of other stuff.

So from looking back it may not have been exactly a KW that was surfacing rather it seems as though the WWB that occurred back in early January across the maritime/IO region set the chain of events where it looked to weaken the trades and allow our MJO wave to move a bit but kind of fizzle out. As we then moved into late January and early February we saw another decent WWB event but this time the trades did not re establish themselves allowing the MJO to form enhanced convection and traverse the western Pacific almost completely traversing the equator before dieing out around Africa/western IO region.

So what I was thinking was the initial WWB in January sent out a KW (weak) that got held up around say the IDL region and then allowed for another push from the WWB that occurred in early February that allowed the initial push of warmer waters to continue east. We can see the 20C line start to push down in the eastern portions of the Pacific but again just a rather weak wave as the western Pac/maritime region reloads with warmth. What I think may have happened was while the Amplitude of the MJO wave was there it failed to connect with the oceanic wave and did a hop skip jump over the Pac so the oceanic portion was not quite as potent as it possibly could have been. Per BOM maps it seems to make sense because region 4 saw a little warmth, if you want to even call it that, Nino 3.4 saw a better bump and is now on the decline, nino 3 saw a nice surge as well as 1+2.

Who knows it is possible im just over thinking it a bit. Curious as to why 1+2 has been warm since about January 1st and then received this extra bump up as well and will be interesting to see if we do precede to drop the temps at all.

Also wanted to add great analysis!



After further review, you might be correct and I was too dismissive of the Kelvin waves. I think you just might've meant to say downwelling, as that warms, and upwelling would cool.

Attached File  ezgif_3_cbd1f33b70.gif ( 945.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


So looking at HYCOM, there's certainly a fairly strong equatorial counter current which is likely playing a role in the anomalous eastern warmth.

I don't think you are over thinking it though. I feel like we have seen some equatorial Rossby waves moving off South America into the Pacific, this has really weaken trades in the eastern Pacific. A the ERWs prepared across the Pacific, they lost their "punch" until they reached the maritime continent whyee they constructively interfered with the weak la Niña base state. This allowed the central Pacific to remain cool, but without that upwelling at the Peruvian coast, there was s lack of cool waters in the eastern Pacific at the ready to be advected westward.


There was a neat article at phys.org about the current and future ENSO stare.

QUOTE
Could leftover heat from last El Nino fuel a new one?
March 15, 2017


https://phys.org/news/2017-03-leftover-el-nino-fuel.html


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 17 2017, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 16 2017, 03:22 AM) *
After further review, you might be correct and I was too dismissive of the Kelvin waves. I think you just might've meant to say downwelling, as that warms, and upwelling would cool.

Attached File  ezgif_3_cbd1f33b70.gif ( 945.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


So looking at HYCOM, there's certainly a fairly strong equatorial counter current which is likely playing a role in the anomalous eastern warmth.

I don't think you are over thinking it though. I feel like we have seen some equatorial Rossby waves moving off South America into the Pacific, this has really weaken trades in the eastern Pacific. A the ERWs prepared across the Pacific, they lost their "punch" until they reached the maritime continent whyee they constructively interfered with the weak la Niña base state. This allowed the central Pacific to remain cool, but without that upwelling at the Peruvian coast, there was s lack of cool waters in the eastern Pacific at the ready to be advected westward.
There was a neat article at phys.org about the current and future ENSO stare.
https://phys.org/news/2017-03-leftover-el-nino-fuel.html


Yea albeit this was a rather weak signal seems as though there has been a lot of deconstructive mess over the equator to not allow for one signal to fully pop out. I also do get the idea of an upwelling current or wave would allow cooling to surface. What would you call a wave surface such as this, with warming, would you just call it surfacing KW as to not mention upwelling because that would then portray the idea of cooling conditions taking place? Just curious for future notes.

One thing I have noticed for sure is there still seems to be a large disconnect taking place in the atmosphere compared to that of the surface ocean reflection. So it really is hard to know for sure if this will allow something to get going. One thing besides the last MJO wave is we have not had much in the way of an El nino signature popping up across the region. I would hate to call it modoki as you state would still call it maybe a transitional period for the waters.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 18 2017, 01:39 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 18 2017, 12:01 AM) *
Yea albeit this was a rather weak signal seems as though there has been a lot of deconstructive mess over the equator to not allow for one signal to fully pop out. I also do get the idea of an upwelling current or wave would allow cooling to surface. What would you call a wave surface such as this, with warming, would you just call it surfacing KW as to not mention upwelling because that would then portray the idea of cooling conditions taking place? Just curious for future notes.

One thing I have noticed for sure is there still seems to be a large disconnect taking place in the atmosphere compared to that of the surface ocean reflection. So it really is hard to know for sure if this will allow something to get going. One thing besides the last MJO wave is we have not had much in the way of an El nino signature popping up across the region. I would hate to call it modoki as you state would still call it maybe a transitional period for the waters.

Michael Ventrice on Twitter has been sporadically posting about ENSO. He has been posting about how we're still seeing much more of a La Nina pattern than anything else. In fact, his atmospheric ENSO index continues to indicate we're moving into more of a La Nina pattern than anything else.



Another daming piece of evidence



I feel like an El Nino is the safe bet... but this time 2 years ago, there was a lot of talk about 1997-98 due to the evolution we were seeing. Based on the evolution we've seen so far (as mentioned above), I have a feeling this is going to be quite the unique Nino event. You know, other than going from Super Nino to La Nina to El Nino.

But I'm definitely betting against anything more than a moderate Nino.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 18 2017, 01:43 AM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 18 2017, 01:46 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 18 2017, 02:39 AM) *
Michael Ventrice on Twitter has been sporadically posting about ENSO. He has been posting about how we're still seeing much more of a La Nina pattern than anything else. In fact, his atmospheric ENSO index continues to indicate we're moving into more of a La Nina pattern than anything else.



Another daming piece of evidence



I feel like an El Nino is the safe bet... but this time 2 years ago, there was a lot of talk about 1997-98 due to the evolution we were seeing. Based on the evolution we've seen so far (as mentioned above), I have a feeling this is going to be quite the unique Nino event. You know, other than going from Super Nino to La Nina to El Nino.

But I'm definitely betting against anything more than a moderate Nino.


Yea can definitely say we have been experiencing a background Nina situation over here with SE ridge situation staying fairly decent through winter so far as well as drought conditions popping up. I would say the atmosphere will continue to lag the oceanic influences where we may start to see a weak to maybe moderate Nino try to form, but still having a tough time seeing much more than that. As that develops we should see the transition of the atmospheric conditions. Truly amazing we have seen what seems like a disconnect like this for quite some time. Sometimes they link and then we get the full fledged pattern hitting but just has not been consistent for sure.


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MaineJay
post Mar 18 2017, 01:50 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 18 2017, 12:01 AM) *
Yea albeit this was a rather weak signal seems as though there has been a lot of deconstructive mess over the equator to not allow for one signal to fully pop out. I also do get the idea of an upwelling current or wave would allow cooling to surface. What would you call a wave surface such as this, with warming, would you just call it surfacing KW as to not mention upwelling because that would then portray the idea of cooling conditions taking place? Just curious for future notes.

One thing I have noticed for sure is there still seems to be a large disconnect taking place in the atmosphere compared to that of the surface ocean reflection. So it really is hard to know for sure if this will allow something to get going. One thing besides the last MJO wave is we have not had much in the way of an El nino signature popping up across the region. I would hate to call it modoki as you state would still call it maybe a transitional period for the waters.



It almost seems like the western Pacific thinks it's in la Niña, as the eastern half in an el Niño.

I think this image speaks for itself, anomalous westerlies between 120W and 80W, but anomalous easterlies from 140E to the dateline. This divergence has allowed the area between to remain a bit cool.

Attached File  uv850_30d.gif ( 33.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  ssttlon5_c.gif ( 84.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  wksl_anm__1_.gif ( 32.22K ) Number of downloads: 0



It should be noted that Peru is experiencing severe rain and flooding, I believe this is consistent with el Niño like conditions, and shows up beautifully on the OLR hovmoller diagram.

Attached File  20170318_024039.jpg ( 284.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


Since 1950, there's never been an el Niño that only spanned boreal summer/fall, every one followed through the winter. So I'm not really reading too much into the current state, other than it's interesting, and a tremendous learning opportunity.

If pressed, I'd say a warm neutral look is the most likely outcome, but thats mostly a guess. I don't think we see a solid signal for a few months. But certainly fun to watch and speculate.

Edit: forgot to add this.
Attached File  Screenshot_20170318_024536.jpg ( 566.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 18 2017, 02:03 AM


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MaineJay
post Mar 18 2017, 02:00 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 18 2017, 02:39 AM) *
Michael Ventrice on Twitter has been sporadically posting about ENSO. He has been posting about how we're still seeing much more of a La Nina pattern than anything else. In fact, his atmospheric ENSO index continues to indicate we're moving into more of a La Nina pattern than anything else.



Another daming piece of evidence



I feel like an El Nino is the safe bet... but this time 2 years ago, there was a lot of talk about 1997-98 due to the evolution we were seeing. Based on the evolution we've seen so far (as mentioned above), I have a feeling this is going to be quite the unique Nino event. You know, other than going from Super Nino to La Nina to El Nino.

But I'm definitely betting against anything more than a moderate Nino.



Yeah, but "strongest la Niña state" by his definition is barely 1 standard deviation, hardly "strong". I don't even consider that anomalous... he's playing with words and statistics in a misleading manner.

SOI remains solidly neutral
Attached File  soi30.png ( 14.65K ) Number of downloads: 1


AAM solidly neutral
Attached File  gfsgwo_1.png ( 129.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


MEI solidly neutral
Attached File  comp.png ( 11.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 18 2017, 02:07 AM


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