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> Spring 2017
bigmt
post Feb 8 2017, 03:02 PM
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Not his forecast yet but here's Brett with the Euro - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...-night/70000802

QUOTE
The European seasonal forecast model is released every month on the 8th. This month's run is showing the following for the upcoming spring (March-May) and summer (June-July). Keep in mind, this is not necessarily our forecast. I am just relaying to you what it is showing.

--The model has trended (since the previous run) more toward the development of an El Nino either starting late in the spring or summer.

--If El Nino conditions do develop by the summer, then we may be looking at another quiet tropical season in the Atlantic basin.

--The model has trended slightly milder across eastern Canada for the upcoming spring, with above-normal temperatures from Quebec into Atlantic Canada.

--Wetter across the Great Lakes for the spring.

--Hot and drier summer over western Canada, especially BC.

--Above-normal temperatures for Atlantic Canada.
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 8 2017, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 8 2017, 11:51 AM) *
I've never expected an early spring. From what I've read it's always pointed towards a more volatile March with plenty of cold in the mix making storms a strong possibility. I don't think we will get into any sustained Spring pattern until April this year, outside of a brief warmup in March which is common. But my guess is that the first two weeks of March will have plenty of winter opportunities across the country, including Southern Ontario.

I hear you, a late spring and a pretty crazy March was really a strong possibilty especially based on the analogs.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 8 2017, 10:33 PM
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Honestly, I want the daylight back! Once we get past February we really start to climb in that department. Spring weather always comes eventually but man the increase in daylight hours is so nice, especially if we get sunny days.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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bigmt
post Feb 15 2017, 08:33 AM
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Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...r-west/70000834

Attached File  accuweather.brightspotcdn.com.jpg ( 83.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
The cold and stormy weather pattern that has dominated western Canada this winter will continue into the spring, providing excellent conditions for ski resorts across the region.

Meanwhile, wet and cloudy weather will take hold around the Great Lakes and in some of Canada’s largest cities before being replaced by warmer, more springlike conditions.

The active weather pattern that has persisted across western Canada throughout much of the winter will continue to deliver rain and snow to the region into the spring.

“The first half of the spring is expected to remain chilly and wet across British Columbia with additional opportunities for heavy snowfall in the mountains through April,” AccuWeather Canadian Weather Expert Brett Anderson said.

Even though the frequency of storms is expected to decrease during the second half of spring, the snowpack built up in the mountains should result in a longer-than-normal ski season.

The changing of the seasons will bring the risk of flooding across part of the Canadian Prairies, especially as temperatures rise later in the season.

Winnipeg and Regina are among those that could be at risk for spring flooding.

A wetter-than-normal spring can exacerbate flooding issues in this region.

Much of Ontario and Quebec will have to wait until the second half of the season for true spring warmth to take hold.

Spring will get off to a rather cloudy, chilly and damp start across southern and central Ontario and southern Quebec, Anderson said.

This includes Toronto, Hamilton, London, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

However, a shift in the weather pattern will eventually usher in warmer air, marking the end of dreary days experienced during first part of the season.

“There will be a significant turnaround to much warmer weather during April with the potential for some early summer-like warmth in May,” Anderson said.

While the weather gradually turns warmer and drier around the Great Lakes and across the St. Lawrence River Valley, Atlantic Canada could endure stormy weather in April and May.

“A wetter pattern may set up over coastal Atlantic Canada later in the spring with below-normal temperatures,” Anderson said.
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newfiebrit
post Feb 15 2017, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 15 2017, 10:03 AM) *


Sounds like a recipe for some late season snow storms into April here, par for the course really!
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bigmt
post Feb 15 2017, 08:42 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 15 2017, 08:33 AM) *
Spring will get off to a rather cloudy, chilly and damp start across southern and central Ontario and southern Quebec, Anderson said.


Everyone remain calm and the turbulence will pass ph34r.gif
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snowgeek93
post Feb 15 2017, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 15 2017, 08:42 AM) *
Everyone remain calm and the turbulence will pass ph34r.gif

laugh.gif

Well at least the days are getting much longer by that point. More cloud cover to enjoy! tongue.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Ryan45
post Feb 15 2017, 09:27 AM
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Fingers crossed, Dad and I are planning to open the trailer March 18th!


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Join the Observations/Livestream Facebook Group for updated LIVE Observations during storms!
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bigmt
post Feb 16 2017, 03:40 PM
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CPC temp probabilities for March 2017:

Attached File  off14_temp.gif ( 33.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  off14_prcp.gif ( 33.24K ) Number of downloads: 1


Temp probabilities for March - April - May:

Attached File  off01_temp.gif ( 33.88K ) Number of downloads: 2


Precip:

Attached File  off01_prcp.gif ( 31.83K ) Number of downloads: 1
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knorthern_knight
post Feb 17 2017, 06:41 PM
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It looks like El Nino is back. Here's the current NINO34 from tropicaltidbits.com

Attached File  cdas34.png ( 45.35K ) Number of downloads: 1


And the NINO34 forecasts through spring/summer from ECMWF, JAXA, and NWS

Attached File  ecmwfn34.png ( 21.3K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  jaxa34.gif ( 30.45K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  nws34.gif ( 19.17K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Feb 17 2017, 08:32 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Feb 17 2017, 06:41 PM) *
It looks like El Nino is back. Here's the current NINO34 from tropicaltidbits.com

Attached File  cdas34.png ( 45.35K ) Number of downloads: 1


And the NINO34 forecasts through spring/summer from ECMWF, JAXA, and NWS

Attached File  ecmwfn34.png ( 21.3K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  jaxa34.gif ( 30.45K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  nws34.gif ( 19.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

Sigh, this again... unsure.gif

Not all El Nino's are bad but it's definitely not something you wanna deal with again so soon.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 08:33 AM
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Technically we're in ENSO-neutral territory coming off a weak Nina, with the forecast for El Nino to potentially develop farther down the road.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/clim...s/enso/current/

QUOTE
Published: February 16, 2017

During mid-February 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was close to 0.0C, in the ENSO-neutral
range. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately
ENSO-neutral, one or two still show a weak La Niña pattern. In particular, the pattern of cloudiness and
rainfall in the central and western tropical Pacific remains indicative of a weak La Niña condition. The
collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through May 2017, with
a chance for El Niño development later in the year.


Attached File  figure3.gif ( 19.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  figure4.gif ( 39.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


We did achieve the 5 consecutive month ONI-based classification of La Nina conditions which was the subject of some debate at the beginning of the season:

Attached File  enso443.png ( 1.72K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 08:37 AM
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This is the ONI definition - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...ensoyears.shtml

QUOTE
Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5C for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v4 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods.
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 08:43 AM
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The long-term question is whether this is a regime change with staying power - http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...orecast.html.en

QUOTE
The SINTEX-F now clearly predicts an El Niño event from this coming summer. This may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state.
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 18 2017, 08:55 AM
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With a potential return to El Nino, I wonder if that might translate to another hot, dry summer here. I know I'm getting way ahead of myself laugh.gif
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 09:04 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Feb 18 2017, 08:55 AM) *
With a potential return to El Nino, I wonder if that might translate to another hot, dry summer here. I know I'm getting way ahead of myself laugh.gif


In last year's case the hangover from the Super El Nino which developed the previous year was one of the primary culprits, not the ENSO conditions that evolved through 2016 that led us here.

In the case of summer 2012 it was partly a widespread dud La Nina in the prior winter which contributed to the situation so things can always work in various unexpected ways.
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 18 2017, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 18 2017, 09:04 AM) *
In last year's case the hangover from the Super El Nino which developed the previous year was one of the primary culprits, not the ENSO conditions that evolved through 2016 that led us here.

In the case of summer 2012 it was partly a widespread dud La Nina in the prior winter which contributed to the situation so things can always work in various unexpected ways.

True, I guess I was thinking because we were in neutral state last early July to August we might be in the same neutral territory this year.

I suppose it would be different because last year we trended neutral towards La Nina into the fall of this year, where as this year it might be neutral trending to El Nino in the fall. Interesting times ahead wink.gif
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newfiebrit
post Feb 18 2017, 09:51 AM
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El Nino or Super El Nino holds no fear for me after last winter, started early in November and ended with a 50cm storm in April!
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 18 2017, 10:26 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 18 2017, 08:43 AM) *
The long-term question is whether this is a regime change with staying power

Hey bigmt, when it talks about long term decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition is this more in reference to the decadal PDO? With true ENSO conditions changing so often year to year it can't be a regime change with regards to El nino La nina so i'm thinking it must be with regards to the PDO as it is so closely associated with ENSO. Sorry i'm not super versed on everything ENSO related yet.



This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 18 2017, 10:31 AM
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 18 2017, 10:26 AM) *
Hey bigmt, when it talks about long term decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition is this more in reference to the decadal PDO? With true ENSO conditions changing so often year to year it can't be a regime change with regards to El nino La nina so i'm thinking it must be with regards to the PDO as it is so closely associated with ENSO. Sorry i'm not super versed on everything ENSO related yet.


ENSO and the PDO do enjoy something of a symbiotic relationship as +PDO periods can lead to more warm ENSO episodes, as well as stronger ones overall.

There are strings of Nino / Nina years such as those during the 50's, 70's and 90's which are interrupted only briefly and generally weakly by the opposing state. I assume this is what they meant.
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