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> Spring 2017
SNOWBOB11
post Feb 18 2017, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 18 2017, 10:35 AM) *
ENSO and the PDO do enjoy something of a symbiotic relationship as +PDO periods can lead to more warm ENSO episodes, as well as stronger ones overall.

There are strings of Nino / Nina years such as those during the 50's, 70's and 90's which are interrupted only briefly and generally weakly by the opposing state. I assume this is what they meant.

Well I mean when it talks about changing to a El Nino-like state after a long spell of La Nina-like state what does that mean? This talks about us being in a long term La Nina, but we've obviously seen the super El Nino and other El Nino events over the last several years so how can it be that we've been in a long term La Nina? I can only think it means we've seen general -PDO conditions for a extended period of time and that is what it means when it says we've been in a La Nina like state. Obviously we have seen times of +PDO but it's been more of a -PDO in general. I'm not sure i'm understanding it correctly but would you say I'm correct that this is what is meant?



This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 18 2017, 11:11 AM
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 11:14 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 18 2017, 11:03 AM) *
Well I mean when it talks about changing to a El Nino-like state after a long spell of La Nina-like state what does that mean?


I'm surmising it's regarding the propensity towards -ENSO in general since 2008 or so. Many of the years were either Nina or Nina-like with a neutral/negative bias, notwithstanding the 2009-10 and major 15-16 +ENSO events. The 14-15 one was pretty weak.

QUOTE
This talks about us being in a long term La Nina, but we've obviously seen the super El Nino and other El Nino events over the last several years so how can it be that we've been in a long term La nina?


Well there can be individual spikes within a longer-term trend. I don't think it necessarily means a completely unbroken run of either.

QUOTE
I can only think it means we've seen general -PDO conditions for a extended period of time and that is what it means when it says we've been in a La Nina like state. Obviously we have seen times of +PDO but it's been more of a -PDO in general. Would you say I am correct that is what is meant?


They do often operate in tandem, depending on the overall PDO state. We've seen mainly -PDO values since 08 or so as well, broken up by spikes to +PDO values more recently.

If we move into a more sustained +PDO then we would expect more and stronger +ENSO events in general, although likely with -PDO periods interspersed in the same manner. Hard to say yet since it will take years to have enough rearview to assess with.
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 11:18 AM
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Beyond the demise of La Nina and potential for a Nino of some kind it's sort of tough to make a call based on the NPAC sst anomalies for the moment:

Attached File  anomnight.2.16.2017.gif ( 219.04K ) Number of downloads: 3
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 18 2017, 11:32 AM
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I have heard of it being a more La Nina like state before and was never sure what was really meant by it, so thanks for taking the time to explain bigmt it's always appreciated.
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2017, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 18 2017, 11:32 AM) *
I have heard of it being a more La Nina like state before and was never sure what was really meant by it, so thanks for taking the time to explain bigmt it's always appreciated.


Unfortunately I can only guess this is what they mean since it makes the most sense to me.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 18 2017, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 18 2017, 11:35 AM) *
Unfortunately I can only guess this is what they mean since it makes the most sense to me.

Yeah, it makes sense to me as well. Thanks again.






This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 18 2017, 12:30 PM
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snowgeek93
post Feb 18 2017, 07:03 PM
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We don't have to worry about next winter for a long time at least.

On the plus side, this early taste of Spring should suffice for now.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Ryan45
post Feb 19 2017, 09:14 AM
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I can't recall on member but I read a week ago that for March/April, we could run into another ice storm similar to last year.


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travis3000
post Feb 19 2017, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Feb 19 2017, 09:14 AM) *
I can't recall on member but I read a week ago that for March/April, we could run into another ice storm similar to last year.


Let's hope not.... that was a disaster here.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Feb 21 2017, 09:13 AM
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--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Feb 21 2017, 10:24 AM
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^Interesting read there MrMusic.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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MrMusic
post Feb 21 2017, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 21 2017, 10:24 AM) *
^Interesting read there MrMusic.


Yea, we spoke about that SE ridge back in the late fall. It's been quite the feature along the consistent Western Trough. Certainly some storms will swing through that frontal zone. Who gets what remains to be seen.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Feb 21 2017, 03:03 PM
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Keep an eye on this in coming weeks. Things are about 3 weeks ahead of schedule in the SE US so far....

https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring

I'm really shocked at how many trees are popping with large buds here the last couple of days. I suspect some early blooming flowers/plants may show their first flowers by the weekend based on this weeks forecast.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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TriC
post Feb 21 2017, 04:10 PM
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Lots of things growing here in London.. Bud's on trees grass and plants!
Attached File(s)
Attached File  10577149_10153448681344983_1939224579256312476_n.jpg ( 190.09K ) Number of downloads: 3
 


--------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------

Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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tml78
post Feb 21 2017, 05:29 PM
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EC has Toronto's high of +16 tomorrow.
Others have it +12.
What are the chances we actually hit the mid teens here in the GTA?
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travis3000
post Feb 21 2017, 09:50 PM
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Fog is going to be an issue tomorrow morning potentially into the afternoon in some spots. It will keep the temps lower IMO. Areas that are spared the worst of the fog will hit the full potential. Its going to be a wait and see type scenario. In areas that are under heavy to moderate fog all day, temps will stall in the upper single digits. If we get a few hours of sunshine then they will rise into the teens.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Feb 22 2017, 07:46 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 21 2017, 09:50 PM) *
Fog is going to be an issue tomorrow morning potentially into the afternoon in some spots. It will keep the temps lower IMO. Areas that are spared the worst of the fog will hit the full potential. Its going to be a wait and see type scenario. In areas that are under heavy to moderate fog all day, temps will stall in the upper single digits. If we get a few hours of sunshine then they will rise into the teens.


Good call Travis! Wow. Can barely see across the road this morning.
Models bring my temp up to 12-18 today depending on sunshine. Hoping for teens again!


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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TriC
post Feb 22 2017, 08:56 AM
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Not much fog here in London and west!! Wonder if we will hit 20 today!


--------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------

Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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MrMusic
post Feb 22 2017, 09:10 AM
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very light surface NE wind here off the lake. I've seen this set-up many times in the spring. If a strong SW wind doesn't develop today, we'll remain stuck in the single digits with fog.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Feb 22 2017, 06:22 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 22 2017, 09:10 AM) *
very light surface NE wind here off the lake. I've seen this set-up many times in the spring. If a strong SW wind doesn't develop today, we'll remain stuck in the single digits with fog.


As expected....maxed out at 8 degrees due to the light NE wind. YHM hit 14.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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