Spring 2017 Options

[snowbelt]

That GFS today scares me, shows another 24 hour ice storm here. Around the same time as last year. Lets hope it doesnt happen like that.

I hope your wrong with this Travis . That was not a good time around these parts last year during that ice storm . I am watching this one !!!

[bigmt]

00z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

 gefs_z500a_noram_4176g.png ( 969.45K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

 gefs_z500a_noram_517jhg.png ( 991.82K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 360 - Day 15:

 gefs_z500a_noram_61ggy6.png ( 1000.86K ) Number of downloads: 1

[bigmt]

WPC surface forecast for day 4:

 9khwbg_conus.gif ( 28.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 5:

 9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

THE INITIAL CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS 12
FRI... WHICH MOVES TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY SAT AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY 26 MAR.

THE LOW COMES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT COMES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER INTERIOR NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND...KEEPING THE REGION COOL.

THE INITIAL CIRCULATION DEPARTING THE PLAINS FOR THE MID MS VALLEY
ON FRI IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH RAIN ALONG THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY FRI. AS THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRIFTS EAST SAT...MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS...WITH MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIP TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND SUN INTO
MONDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AREAS.

[bigmt]

00z ECMWF stays fairly consistent with that system, pushing a corridor of precip through S ON while cold high pressure to the north leads to a limited narrow swath of wintry precip over the weekend and rain to the south.

E ON & S QC stay cooler but see little QPF if that run is correct. The low is subsequently squashed off the US coast.

[bigmt]

As if on cue from our discussion yesterday there's an apparent error with YQY's snowfall data today. The number is currently listed as 312cm for yesterday alone (and subsequently 361cm for the month) which I'm not inputting here for obvious reasons

I'm going instead with the 21cm from EC's summary minus the 5.6 from yesterday which equals 15.4cm, at least until they adjust that error.

YYJ Victoria, BC - 58.3cm / 39cm (+0)
YVR Vancouver, BC - 69.6cm / 37.7cm (+0)
YYC Calgary, AB - 95.8cm / 84.1cm (+0)
YHM Hamilton, ON - 95.6cm / 146.9cm (+0)
YYZ Toronto, ON - 78.8cm / 103.6cm (+0)
YOW Ottawa, ON - 271.9cm / 208.2cm (+0)
YUL Montreal, QC - 217.7cm / 194.8cm (+0)
YSJ Saint John, NB - 292.8cm / 217.8cm (+0)
YYG Charlottetown, PEI - 291.9cm / 260.5cm (+2.6)
YHZ Halifax, NS - 348.9cm / 203cm (+1.7)
YQY Sydney, NS - 377.8cm / 258.6cm (+15.4)
YYT St. John's, NL - 377.3cm / 302.8cm (+13.4)

[travis3000]

00z ECMWF stays fairly consistent with that system, pushing a corridor of precip through S ON while cold high pressure to the north leads to a limited narrow swath of wintry precip over the weekend and rain to the south.

E ON & S QC stay cooler but see little QPF if that run is correct. The low is subsequently squashed off the US coast.

Where does this band of precip setup Mike? Is it snow or freezing rain?

[bigmt]

Where does this band of precip setup Mike? Is it snow or freezing rain?

Roughly here via this run with the high to the north (cooler) and the low to the south (warmer):

 map232.png ( 155.72K ) Number of downloads: 5


There's been some play in terms of where the band is located but it's been depicted consistently via the Euro, at least for now. See if 12z holds steady this afternoon.

Hard to know exactly how precip-type plays out. I'd say it'd be a mix of a bit of everything but maybe more sleet / ice. We'd have to be closer in range to have any hope of sorting that out I think, given the setup.

[bigmt]

Here's the WPC's snow/sleet probabilities for days 4 through 6.

Day 4:

 prbww_sn25_DAY4.gif ( 28.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 5:

 prbww_sn25_DAY5.gif ( 28.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 6:

 prbww_sn25_DAY6.gif ( 27.92K ) Number of downloads: 1

[bigmt]

Finally, the latest 06z GFS precip-type @ hour 156:

 gfs_ptype_accum_ne_27.png ( 256.76K ) Number of downloads: 2

[travis3000]

Thanks Mike! GFS continues to show freezing rain here . Will have to keep an eye on it. Euro is a bit north

[MrMusic]

This has the looks of a gross early spring weekend written all over it.
Although I generally enjoy a nice storm.
GFS and CMC showing 30-40mm of rain down here with raw E wind off the lake.
This is the setup that often puts my skylights to the test. Lol
Hope nobody gets a big freezing rain storm.

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Mar 21 2017, 06:30 AM

[snowgeek93]

Lovely sunshine here this morning. Afternoon looking stellar as well!

[plowguy]

I can't believe the temp swing today. +10 to -10. I would rather the +10

[bigmt]

Our forecast low is -18c tonight (windchill a shocking -30) vs normal values around -6 so that's a notable departure, along with -14c tomorrow night according to their outlook. There are SWS and watches out across the border in QC for squalls associated with the arctic frontal passage.

The next arctic high past this one looks situated farther north so it shouldn't deliver low-level cold as far south as this, although it will have implications for the expected weekend system.

[plowguy]

TWN calling for freezing rain on Sunday in Brantford. They don't usually forecast Freezing rain that far out.

[travis3000]

TWN calling for freezing rain on Sunday in Brantford. They don't usually forecast Freezing rain that far out.

They are calling for it here too on Sunday. The GFS has been showing it for 3 days now so its something that has strong potential.

[snowgeek93]

They are calling for it here too on Sunday. The GFS has been showing it for 3 days now so its something that has strong potential.

Ugh, last thing I want to deal with is freezing rain. Hope it's a miss for us.

[bigmt]

As if on cue from our discussion yesterday there's an apparent error with YQY's snowfall data today. The number is currently listed as 312cm for yesterday alone (and subsequently 361cm for the month) which I'm not inputting here for obvious reasons

I'm going instead with the 21cm from EC's summary minus the 5.6 from yesterday which equals 15.4cm, at least until they adjust that error.

If only the quality control for YHZ were being applied to YQY - http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/...StationID=52518

 ggftscse.png ( 48.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


So much for the healthy & friendly YQY/YYT competition because YQY supposedly just crushed YYT in one fell swoop

[newfiebrit]

If only the quality control for YHZ were being applied to YQY - http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/...StationID=52518

 ggftscse.png ( 48.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


So much for the healthy & friendly YQY/YYT competition because YQY supposedly just crushed YYT in one fell swoop

I wonder did they mean 31.2cm? Which would give Shane a bit of a lead. I assume they will fix the error which in this case is pretty obvious, don't think any of us would enjoy 312cm of snow in one day.

Looks like were in with a shout of another 10-15cm tomorrow night, edging towards 400cm if that happens.

[bigmt]

Brett with last night's Euro weeklies - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...update/70001180

Latest signals support additional rounds of cold coming down into parts of Atlantic Canada through mid-April with a more persistent NW flow. This NW flow will also favor a more drier pattern. Farther southwest, after this quick shot of cold air this week and again this weekend, it looks like the westerlies win out and much southern Quebec and Ontario will have more seasonable temperatures. However, the active jet into April could bring more precipitation compared to normal, especially for Ontario.

In the West, expect a break in the storminess at the end of the month and into early April, but that just may be a temporary break.

Some sneaky cold air may get back into the eastern Prairies after April 4; however, the models do not show that at this time.

 590x363_03211506_mar21a.png ( 325.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


 590x363_03211507_mar21b.png ( 312.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


 590x363_03211508_mar21c.png ( 299.94K ) Number of downloads: 0