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> March 9-23, 2017 MidAtl/NE Arctic Plunge, Forecasts & OBS
NorEaster07
post Mar 7 2017, 01:26 PM
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Thread for Previous Blast March 3-5, 2017

Euro12z today. Ridiculous.

850mb temps Saturday morning March 11th

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Closeup. Normal 850mb temp over Albany is -5C. Extreme is -17C for this day. Record for March is -26.6 3/8/1986

Attached Image


How Ridiculous? This Ridiculous. Anomaly off the chart and a large area of it.

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 17 2017, 04:55 PM
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NorEaster07
post Mar 7 2017, 02:59 PM
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When the Arctic is breaking record cold temps and that air dives southeast into Quebec and Northeast U.S you can bet its fresh, its frigid for us. So strong its suppressing a storm south.


Euro says low temps in the teens 3 nights in a row NYC northwards Sat, Sun & Monday, then again Wednesday & Thursday mornings. blink.gif
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NorEaster07
post Mar 7 2017, 04:57 PM
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Amazing.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
433 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

As previously mentioned, still appears that another anomalously
cold air mass arrived Friday night into Saturday, after the low
pressure has passed our region by. Anomaly approaching 3
standard deviations below normal, so likely looking at min
temperatures in the single digits and teens, with highs
struggling to break 20 away from the immediate coastline. May
need wind chill headlines for Saturday. This type of airmass
could be record breaking
.

Sunday and beyond...

Large high pressure now appears to dominate our weather Sunday
and Monday, as the core moves east across Canada. Temperatures
should get a little higher each day with more sunshine
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NorEaster07
post Mar 8 2017, 06:19 AM
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3 snow events in the next 7 days and the Arctic air is ignored. lol. smile.gif

Warm morning in the East.

In the 60s this morning in North Carolina & Virginia. 50s here.

But look in the Top left part of the map... It's coming. Arctic hounds are making their way

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MaineJay
post Mar 8 2017, 06:48 AM
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March might end up colder than January and February. laugh.gif

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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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NorEaster07
post Mar 8 2017, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 8 2017, 06:48 AM) *
March might end up colder than January and February. laugh.gif


Since Feb was one of the warmest on record in many areas I wouldn't doubt it would be easier to get a colder Avg in March than February.

GFS12z says why an end date on the thread? blink.gif

NYC data

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                            12Z MAR08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
WED 12Z 08-MAR   8.7     3.0    1016      82     100             561     548    
WED 18Z 08-MAR  11.3    -2.0    1017      50      16    0.00     553     539    
THU 00Z 09-MAR   8.4    -0.7    1016      70      35    0.00     551     538    
THU 06Z 09-MAR   6.3    -3.9    1018      71      10    0.00     549     535    
THU 12Z 09-MAR   3.4    -3.9    1020      66      59    0.00     548     533    
THU 18Z 09-MAR   9.1    -4.6    1019      45      68    0.00     550     535    
FRI 00Z 10-MAR   7.2    -1.6    1016      69      99    0.00     550     537    
FRI 06Z 10-MAR   3.8    -1.8    1013      85      99    0.13     547     536    
FRI 12Z 10-MAR   1.9    -5.9    1012      91      94    0.18     540     531    
FRI 18Z 10-MAR   3.3   -10.0    1010      65      43    0.02     526     518    
SAT 00Z 11-MAR  -1.4   -13.0    1013      76      99    0.08     519     509    
SAT 06Z 11-MAR  -6.3   -19.5    1016      64      22    0.01     519     506    
SAT 12Z 11-MAR  -6.9   -20.1    1020      62      51    0.00     524     509    
SAT 18Z 11-MAR  -3.2   -18.1    1021      51      36    0.01     529     513    
SUN 00Z 12-MAR  -4.7   -18.3    1024      59      26    0.01     535     516    
SUN 06Z 12-MAR  -6.5   -16.3    1026      61      23    0.00     536     517    
SUN 12Z 12-MAR  -6.9   -17.1    1027      65      30    0.00     534     514    
SUN 18Z 12-MAR  -1.2   -16.2    1025      45      63    0.00     531     512    
MON 00Z 13-MAR  -2.4   -14.8    1026      59      42    0.00     536     516    
MON 06Z 13-MAR  -4.4   -15.4    1029      56      32    0.00     539     517    
MON 12Z 13-MAR  -5.2   -15.3    1031      57      14    0.00     545     521    
MON 18Z 13-MAR   0.9   -14.0    1031      31      89    0.00     547     523    
TUE 00Z 14-MAR  -1.4   -12.2    1030      52      99    0.00     548     524    
TUE 06Z 14-MAR  -1.9    -9.5    1026      81      99    0.04     547     527    
TUE 12Z 14-MAR  -0.8    -6.7    1022      92      98    0.30     547     530    
TUE 18Z 14-MAR   0.3    -4.8    1014      91      95    0.18     543     532    
WED 00Z 15-MAR   0.1    -2.2    1008      92      99    0.05     536     530    
WED 06Z 15-MAR  -2.8    -6.8    1005      95      99    0.19     529     524    
WED 12Z 15-MAR  -4.0    -9.2    1005      93      99    0.14     524     520    
WED 18Z 15-MAR  -0.5   -12.1    1008      85      94    0.07     525     519    
THU 00Z 16-MAR  -4.6   -12.5    1014      84      65    0.01     527     517    
THU 06Z 16-MAR  -6.4   -14.2    1017      84      43    0.00     526     513    
THU 12Z 16-MAR  -7.7   -13.3    1020      86      17    0.00     533     517    
THU 18Z 16-MAR  -2.0   -11.1    1019      81      42    0.00     539     524    
FRI 00Z 17-MAR  -2.5   -10.1    1019      88      99    0.00     541     526    
FRI 06Z 17-MAR  -2.3    -9.4    1017      94     100    0.04     539     525    
FRI 12Z 17-MAR  -0.2    -6.3    1012      96     100    0.19     534     525    
FRI 18Z 17-MAR  -0.6    -7.2    1010      95      99    0.25     531     522    
SAT 00Z 18-MAR  -2.1    -9.7    1014      90      99    0.08     531     520    
SAT 06Z 18-MAR  -5.7   -12.1    1018      86      10    0.00     533     519    
SAT 12Z 18-MAR  -8.9   -12.0    1020      83      18    0.00     540     524    
SUN 00Z 19-MAR  -2.1   -10.1    1019      91      26    0.00     541     526    
SUN 12Z 19-MAR  -5.0    -8.6    1017      94      95    0.00     536     523    
MON 00Z 20-MAR   1.4    -5.2    1015      92      86    0.05     541     530    
MON 12Z 20-MAR   0.3    -4.9    1016      97       6    0.01     548     535    
TUE 00Z 21-MAR   2.5    -3.1    1014      98      95    0.03     554     543    
TUE 12Z 21-MAR   3.2     1.5    1008      96      90    0.46     553     546    
WED 00Z 22-MAR   3.1    -0.8    1005      98      43    0.16     542     538    
WED 12Z 22-MAR   0.6    -6.0    1005      88      58    0.01     528     524    
THU 00Z 23-MAR   3.2    -6.1    1007      82      93    0.03     531     525    
THU 12Z 23-MAR  -0.4    -7.2    1010      82      64    0.00     531     523    
FRI 00Z 24-MAR   1.2    -9.5    1014      79      78    0.02     533     522    
FRI 12Z 24-MAR  -3.9   -10.5    1021      63      31    0.00     535     518
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KSpring1
post Mar 8 2017, 01:51 PM
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This is all very confusing!!!

We had such a nice February - all flowers and many trees bloomed early. The temps have been so pleasant and enjoyable. The scenery with all the flowers is so much nicer than the usual scraggy-scraggedy bare brown branches barren looking winter scenery.


It's been nice here for a few days - 60s-70s all the time. Beautiful sunshine. Balmy breezes.


.... but the forecast is calling for a temp precipice. sad.gif


I feel like we already had March in February and a return to cold is just weird at this point

... and completely unpleasant!!


Go away cold! Srriously. Go away!!! mad.gif






--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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CreamyGoodness
post Mar 8 2017, 01:53 PM
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Not sure where to put this. Just placed under severe tstorm warning. Dark line of clouds to the west. Looks like business.


--------------------
Best snow storm I ever experienced: April 06, 1982
Craziest snow storm ever experienced: October 04, 1987
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NorEaster07
post Mar 8 2017, 05:30 PM
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https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/839462248091422722

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NorEaster07
post Mar 8 2017, 07:28 PM
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Hartford Average number of days staying in the 20s in December is 5. In March its 1.

March 1960 had 7 days staying in the 20s.
December 1989 had 23 days! Whoa.

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bingobobbo
post Mar 8 2017, 07:37 PM
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It did fall to 5 below zero here on March 7, 2003. However, the last time it fell below zero on this date or later in the season was on March 19, 1993, when it plunged to 7 below. That day (and 3/19/67) are in a tie for latest that we have ever dropped bellow zero.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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kpk33x
post Mar 9 2017, 12:50 PM
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For us, our average final below zero mark comes February 28th. However, it has been as late as March 29 (1974). We did not get below zero in the previous blast...4F two days and 3F low the third although Fryeburg down the road did get below zero.

In the 60s we had a couple below zero readings in April (also larger day spreads, I wonder if the pre-NOWdata was captured with Fryeburg which is in a cold-drain valley).

It will depend again if the wind stays up whether we see the currently predicted -3F low over the weekend. If we do, it certainly would not be out of season. It would once again be a daily max at or below 15F in March, which has only happened 6 times since 1974...including once this month. It had been since 2007 when there were 2 of them in March. We may have one this weekend again.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2
July - 0

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 11
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
7/1 - hit by edge of tornado-warned thunderstorm (heavy rain - also flood warning)
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NorEaster07
post Mar 9 2017, 02:49 PM
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Hartford Temps next 10 days from GFS. Horizontal orange line is the freezing line obviously. Not much time spent above that. Not typical for March. I think only 1978 came close I believe but that was beginning of the month, NOT MID MARCH. I haven't dug into that stat much.




Actually just found 1993 did mid March. Still, this isn't common

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
217 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

In what has been a mild winter, dominated by an active Pacific
jet across the lower 48, the next week will well be more
reminiscent of the middle of winter.


A polar vortex over eastern Canada and a building ridge across
western North America will allow Arctic air to spill southward
from central Canada this weekend
,
with temperatures 15-20
degrees below average. Snow cover and a gusty NW flow will keep
temperatures in the 20s on Saturday, with only a gradual upward
tick heading into next week. Wind chill values Saturday morning
will be below zero for most locations. Arctic high pressure
settles over the region on Monday.
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NorEaster07
post Mar 9 2017, 08:19 PM
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850mb temps and 500mb heights this evening. Arctic bleeding down. Poor Canada. Wow at that crazy cold airmass in Canada there.


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thedarkestclouds
post Mar 9 2017, 11:32 PM
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50.2 degrees on my thermometer right now, which means it's time to say goodbye to the 50s for what could be well over a week. The longest sub-50 stretch so far this season for Trenton has been 14 days (which actually happened in December), so that'll be tough to beat. The Longest such stretch in Philly, on the other hand, has been 8 days, so Philly could very well pull it off.
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KSpring1
post Mar 10 2017, 12:16 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 9 2017, 09:19 PM) *
850mb temps and 500mb heights this evening. Arctic bleeding down. Poor Canada. Wow at that crazy cold airmass in Canada there.


Attached Image



Thanks for reminding me it's not Canada's fault!! It might sound funny, but I'd often feel mad at Canada - the landmass for existing, every time I'd see a massive cold air dump down!! You've reminded me that Canada is just as much a victim here - or rather the Canadians themselves of this vicious air!


It's just rough. There never seems to be an end to cold......


--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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KSpring1
post Mar 10 2017, 12:25 AM
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QUOTE(thedarkestclouds @ Mar 10 2017, 12:32 AM) *
50.2 degrees on my thermometer right now, which means it's time to say goodbye to the 50s for what could be well over a week. The longest sub-50 stretch so far this season for Trenton has been 14 days (which actually happened in December), so that'll be tough to beat. The Longest such stretch in Philly, on the other hand, has been 8 days, so Philly could very well pull it off.



We've had a strange time here --- it's either been really warm (yeah!! smile.gif ) or it's been stretches of days and days in a row of temps in the 40s - often the low to mid 40s. My forecast for the foreseeable future is low 40s (some 30s). UGH. That is below average for January!! Even in the horribly cold 2015 we had the temp regime that usually happens -- couple of days in the 40s then back up to 50s then back up to 60s, then a couple days at 70, then a day in the upper 40s-50, then a few days in the 50s, then a week in the 60s and so on.

I can't remember any other time when I saw a forecast week that didn't feature even 50s!! Even in January a typical forecast will have a day at 60.


2cnd warmest Feb followed by freakishly COLD week-10 days- month?!?!



~~~~~~~~~~~


Could anyone tell me: Where was this air mass hiding? What dislodged it?

Thanks! smile.gif






--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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NorEaster07
post Mar 10 2017, 05:52 AM
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QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Mar 10 2017, 12:16 AM) *
Thanks for reminding me it's not Canada's fault!! It might sound funny, but I'd often feel mad at Canada - the landmass for existing, every time I'd see a massive cold air dump down!! You've reminded me that Canada is just as much a victim here - or rather the Canadians themselves of this vicious air!
It's just rough. There never seems to be an end to cold......


If there was an ocean north of us we wouldn't have continental or Arctic air masses. Yeah, Poor Canada doesn't even get the chance for it to moderate like we get it so just imagine all the Eskimo coats being sold there.

On a reminded note... Is the Hudson Bay even frozen over right now? What if the Great Lakes were? I think our cold would be even more impressive.
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NorEaster07
post Mar 10 2017, 05:53 AM
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Remember 15+ anomalies is hard to get. 20-25 is near the extreme records. We don't see 15+ anomalies all the time or for extended periods..

March 12th:

Hartford, CT
Normal Low 27
Record Low 6 (21 below normal)


Bridgeport, CT
Normal Low: 30
Record Low: 11 (19 below normal)

Raleigh, NC
Normal Low: 39
Record Low: 19 (20 below normal)

Richmond, VA
Normal Low: 36
Record Low: 16 (20 below normal)

Boston, MA
Normal Low 30
Record Low: 7 (23 below normal)


"Polar Troughing". Love that term!

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
432 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

On the backside of the intense coastal low tracking to the east
of New England and the Canadian maritimes, arctic air will
spill southward tonight into Saturday. Temperatures will average
15 to 20 degrees below normal with wind chill values early
Saturday morning near or just below zero. In addition, these
frigid temperatures will be accompanied by NW winds gusting up
to 35 mph. Highs on Saturday will struggle to get into the mid
and upper 20s. Several record lows as well as record low maximum
temperatures will likely be achieved. See the climate section
below for details.

Polar troughing will reside over the NE U.S this weekend...lifting
north on Monday. At the surface...sprawling arctic high pressure
extends SE from central Canada into the region. This will result in
an unseasonably cold airmass over the region Sunday into Monday. A
northern stream shortwave moves through on Sunday with perhaps some
flurries. Main story will be the cold...with temps potentially
struggling to get to the freezing mark both Sunday and Monday (15-20
degrees below seasonable). Windchills likely run in the single
digits coastal plain...and 0 to 5 below zero across interior late
Sat night/Sun morning on gusty NW winds.
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NorEaster07
post Mar 10 2017, 07:31 PM
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Its cold outside with fresh snowpack and wind.

Heres 24hr lowest wind chill forecast

gis_wfo



Wow

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