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> March 23-24 Plains Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Enhanced: Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Mar 16 2017, 11:27 AM
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SPC mentioning the next better chance at severe weather for our region

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will exit the East on Sun/D4, with another wave
amplifying a bit farther north across the northeastern states on
D6-D7. Initially, a surface high will encompass the Southeast, with
another cold front affecting the East and Southeast with the second
wave. However, low-level moisture will begin to increase across the
western Gulf of Mexico D6 and beyond, beneath temporary upper
ridging in advance of the next western trough.

Several models including the ECMWF and GFS show a potent shortwave
trough emerging into the southern High Plains by late Wed/D7, and
there appears to be some threat of severe thunderstorms. However,
moisture return quality will be a concern, with the antecedent upper
ridge as well as the southeastern surface high. The ECMWF solution
is preferred, showing a drier boundary layer across the southern
High Plains, with dewpoints approaching the 50s and MUCAPE to around
500 J/kg. Despite the possibility of marginal instability, the
deepening surface low over Kansas and strengthening shear profiles
will conditionally favor severe thunderstorms. However, especially
for the expected magnitude, predictability is too low to denote a
specific area.

By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen
further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for
severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than
on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone
favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,
predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current
level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later
outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the
central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid
Mississippi valleys.


..Jewell.. 03/16/2017


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 24 2017, 08:03 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2017, 12:14 PM
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LR GFS looks pretty good. Back to the parade of Pacific systems turning into GLCs... this time, everyone in our region will be cheering for it.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 16 2017, 12:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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RobB
post Mar 16 2017, 01:30 PM
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Extended model discussion:

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

VALID 12Z SUN MAR 19 2017 - 12Z THU MAR 23 2017

...RECORD WARMTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING INTO THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY...


MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
SPREADS ARE FOUND OVER THE OCEAN BUT THE DIFFERENCES THERE ARE
RELATIVELY SMALL. THEREFORE...A GENERAL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF/EC MEAN WITH THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WAS USED FOR THE
ENTIRE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. FIRST OF ALL...REGARDING THE
DEPARTING CYCLONE OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST ON DAY 3/SUNDAY...GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A TREND PLACING THE CYCLONE CENTER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OFF THE COAST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE STABLE WITH THE CYCLONE
CENTER PLACEMENT THAN THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...MORE WEIGHTS HAVE
BEEN GIVEN TO THE 06Z GFS WHICH IS CLOSER THE COAST...ALTHOUGH THE
FINAL BLEND YIELDS A POSITION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS WPC PACKAGE.

OUT WEST...RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. AGAIN...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON DAY 4/MONDAY AS MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC CYCLONE MOVES INTO/TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW AS IT HEADS
GENERALLY TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND BY DAY 6/WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL
00Z EC MEAN/06Z GEFS BLEND WAS USED TO HANDLE THIS LOW. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEST ON DAY 5 AND
6...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A CYCLONE WILL FORM. THE 00Z GFS
IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS. A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER CYCLONE THAN THE GENERAL BLEND OF THE 00Z EC MEAN/06Z GEFS
WAS USED TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.


KONG
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RobB
post Mar 16 2017, 01:43 PM
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Day 8 Euro:


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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 16 2017, 02:45 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 16 2017, 12:27 PM) *
SPC mentioning the next better chance at severe weather for our region

After seeing the 12z GFS, I'm glad to see this thread was already created.

As advertised, this event has potential to be a major severe thunderstorm/tornado outbreak and my backyard appears to be in the cross-hairs once again.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 16 2017, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 16 2017, 01:14 PM) *
LR GFS looks pretty good. Back to the parade of Pacific systems turning into GLCs... this time, everyone in our region will be cheering for it.

I've got my pompoms ready. I'm not sure I can run away from last winter fast enough.

Early CIPS analogs suggesting the AR/MO/OK tri-state region to have the greatest threat early on in the potential outbreak. However, we're not quite to the best time frame to be looking at CIPS; 2 more days will yield a better idea of what to expect.
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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MIDMIWeather
post Mar 16 2017, 07:49 PM
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Man, there were like two days worth of runs where this was looking like it could drop some snow for me; all rain now. Bleh.
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bunnyohare1
post Mar 16 2017, 08:20 PM
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So far it has been a fairly uneventful winter here in Mishawaka, Indiana. We are in the Great Lakes sweet spot. Seasonal snowfall average is down by a foot. Lake effect or system snow was non existent in February. Finally had some lake effect last week that stayed mostly west, north and south of us. Looking forward to spring. No blizzards or big snows to speak of this year. May as well enjoy springtime and warmer temps. mellow.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2017, 08:27 PM
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18z GFS




Vicinity of TX/OK border


Further north into Oklahoma


CIPS based on 105 analogs per GEFS for this time period


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 16 2017, 08:29 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 17 2017, 12:00 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 16 2017, 09:27 PM) *
CIPS based on 105 analogs per GEFS for this time period

I thought I had clicked all the links on that page, but apparently not. Thanks for pointing out the existence of these products!

50% is impressive for 1 week out .... however, 12-14 day analogs are even more impressive IMO



This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 17 2017, 12:08 AM
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2017, 12:05 AM
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GFS is even nastier than 18z. Setup/parameters kinda look like something you expect from May.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 17 2017, 12:06 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2017, 12:09 AM
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6 hour QPF shows a pretty impressive signal for semi-discrete cells for the GFS.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2017, 12:10 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 17 2017, 01:00 AM) *
I thought I had clicked all the links on that page, but apparently not. Thanks for pointing out the existence of these products!

50% is impressive for 1 week out .... however, 12-14 day analogs are even more impressive IMO

You bet. It makes you wonder what else we're missing out on with the things we use relatively frequently.

Something I've noticed is that the 12-14 day is typically severe weather climo. I bet this is because the ensembles are so far apart that the mean is basically climo.

However, I've been watching it long enough to know that it isn't always climo... so I guess it's not entirely meaningless. This signal is also stronger than anything I've seen this winter. Then again, we're actually talking about astronomical spring now.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 17 2017, 12:16 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 17 2017, 03:55 AM
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QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...


...Day 7 and 8...
On Thursday/Day 7, the GFS solution develops an upper-level low over
the Rockies while the ECMWF develops a much less impressive
upper-level trough near the same location. The GFS solution is
aggressive with moisture return into the southern and central Plains
and develops an axis of instability from TX northward to eastern KS
Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF is slower with the system which would
probably be the more likely scenario. The ECMWF is slow to return
low-level moisture northward into the southern Plains. Although
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening
if the GFS solution is correct, considerable uncertainty exists at
this range due to large differences in the model solutions. This
uncertainty continues into Friday/Day 8 with the GFS again
aggressive with convective development in the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The ECMWF continues to be slower with the system but does
show a potential for convection in the southern Plains and ARKLATEX
Friday afternoon. Due to large differences in the model solutions
and uncertainty late in the day 4 to 8 period, no area will be added
for either Thursday or Friday.


..Broyles.. 03/17/2017
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RobB
post Mar 17 2017, 06:55 AM
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Extended Model discussion:

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 17 2017

VALID 12Z MON MAR 20 2017 - 12Z FRI MAR 24 2017

...OVERVIEW...

A LEAD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
MON/TUE AS ANOTHER PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST. THAT SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.


...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES AND EVALUATION...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO A CONSENSUS BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE FRONTS/PRESSURES. SOME DIFFERENCES
WERE NOTED IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SINKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY (TREND HAS BEEN QUICKER BUT THE GFS REMAINS ON THE
QUICKER SIDE) AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WED/THU. THAT SYSTEM
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DYNAMIC -- PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION.



...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST
CONUS WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN FRONT, CENTERED IN
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD ON
THU/FRI. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EAST FROM
THE MID-MS VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MON-TUE.
PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF CALIFORNIA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, MODULATED BY CONVECTION.


FRACASSO
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 17 2017, 07:55 AM
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Got rewarded with a rogue warned cell this morning


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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 17 2017, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 17 2017, 08:55 AM) *
Got rewarded with a rogue warned cell this morning

Very nice, I saw the activity up that way earlier this morning.

The frontal boundary responsible for this activity appears to stall once it touches the Gulf of Mexico allowing for a seasonably strong surge of moisture/CAPE across the south-central plains that could set the stage for severe thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening. Neither dynamics nor shear are particularly noteworthy on Sunday and a strong cap appears to be in place as well, but some isolated activity could get going along the weak cool front moving south Sunday night.

Once again the cool front won't make it to the Gulf of Mexico allowing moisture to pool across the southern plains even further ahead of this powerful system. GEFS means already suggest this system will be working with PWAT anomalies of at least 1-2 SD above normal.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2017, 01:30 PM
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GFS is most aggressive? What kind of alternate universe are we in now?


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StormChaser4Life
post Mar 17 2017, 03:21 PM
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Can anyone enlighten me on why Euro is being more anemic with moisture? I don't have access to the data anymore. Does it send the cold front through the Gulf? The pattern to me supports a more robust system like GFS
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 17 2017, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(StormChaser4Life @ Mar 17 2017, 04:21 PM) *
Can anyone enlighten me on why Euro is being more anemic with moisture? I don't have access to the data anymore. Does it send the cold front through the Gulf? The pattern to me supports a more robust system like GFS

There are multiple sites that provide Euro data for free (I haven't had a subscription for years), but for some reason multiple sites aren't plotting the 12z Euro run indicating some data feed problems.

However, comparing the 00z euro with the 12z gfs indicates the greatest differences are not directly related to this storm; rather they appear to be due to major differences in the storm system upstream across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Euro tries to keep them together whereas they are clearly separate on the GFS. I'm solidly in the GFS camp.

00z Euro
Attached Image


12z GFS
Attached Image


EDIT: Also note differences in intensity/position of the trough near Maine. Euro is stronger implying a more robust cold front passage ahead of this system.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 17 2017, 03:45 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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