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> March 23-24 Plains Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Enhanced: Forecasts and OBS
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 19 2017, 02:40 AM
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GFS once again has nasty parameters but has extreme capping and dry air aloft.



Central NE


Central KS


NNW OK


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 19 2017, 02:43 AM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 19 2017, 02:44 AM
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GFS has storms in the area despite this. I don't know, man.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 19 2017, 02:45 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 19 2017, 12:55 PM
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Looking at the soundings above they are all showing substantial cloudy layers that are limiting surface heating across the warm sector such that the cap appears unbreakable. The wind profiles shown are wicked though, such that more surface heating/CAPE will boost most severe parameters. Initiation along the front with a strongly capped warm sector indicates sufficiently strong convergence along the boundary to break the cap anyhow. Thus, at the very least, a strongly forced squall line appears plausible.

It seems like too much cloudiness may be a bias in the GFS this severe weather season.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 19 2017, 12:58 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 19 2017, 05:42 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 18 2017, 02:39 AM) *
Dates are from the 23rd to the 24th. The event for overnight 23rd should be from NE Colorado into western Nebraska maybe as far north as southern south Dakota. May get isolated tornadoes with that as well as a nice hail threat. Maybe some going supercell in structure that could help enhance the region as the surface low ejects into southern Wyoming and what looks like a lee trough tries to form, later on becomes a dry front signature for OK on south which could be rather interesting.

Best forcing goes through those regions into early the 24th may have some warm front forced storms across SE nebraska, NW Missouri, and sw Iowa for 23rd into the 24th as well.

The 24th we see some real action take place as what looks to be a La Junta, CO low ejects out into Northern Texas as a developing dry line holds in western central Texas. The northern half of Texas and western to central OK are in line for some pretty hefty storms as a S/W ejects out from the 4 corners. Overnight event as we get into eastern OK, Eastern Texas, and Arkansas, maybe even up to southern Missouri.

Going to be a real interesting day on the 24th!

GFS shows a band of something trying to form across much of Missouri but have this feeling it may be frontogenetically forced rains and maybe some convection but nothing I can see too severe.

The 25th looks to feature maybe eastern IL, IN, and western OH but looks as though it may turn into more of a wind event as we move in time would not be surprised to see a spin up or two the closer you reside to the SLP. Have to watch and see how that evolves from the 24th situation.


Seems as though we are still evolving at this time. We still have what seems like a nice SLP that drives down into NE Colorado from Wyoming region from the 23rd to overnight and allows for what seems like spotty activity but given the developing system I still would hold the idea for something across NE CO, SE WY, and western Nebraska region. This may translate into western KS and panhandle of OK as the night continues on with convection flaring up as the cap may break across those regions.

As the system really starts to develop a dry line begins to form from about central Kansas to central Texas as we enter the day side of the 24th. Two things can happen with this situation:

1.) overnight convection from central KS/OK panhandle/ northern Texas may create quite a bit of cloud debris across the eastern portions and limit surface heating potential across OK and northern TX especially. Which would in turn limit severe weather potential across this region.

2.) Convection holds off until the next day across western KS/ OK panhandle and texas which would allow things to get rocking early on with destabilization to occur across the region mentioned above and continue on eastward as we progress through the night.

One thing that seems certain is the potential across eastern OK/NE Texas into Arkansas for the end of the day of the 24th. That potential looks rather impressive hopefully the atmosphere doesnt cloud itself from convective debris but im sure many would be ok without the necessary severe weather.


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JDStormsWx
post Mar 19 2017, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 19 2017, 05:42 PM) *
Seems as though we are still evolving at this time. We still have what seems like a nice SLP that drives down into NE Colorado from Wyoming region from the 23rd to overnight and allows for what seems like spotty activity but given the developing system I still would hold the idea for something across NE CO, SE WY, and western Nebraska region. This may translate into western KS and panhandle of OK as the night continues on with convection flaring up as the cap may break across those regions.

As the system really starts to develop a dry line begins to form from about central Kansas to central Texas as we enter the day side of the 24th. Two things can happen with this situation:

1.) overnight convection from central KS/OK panhandle/ northern Texas may create quite a bit of cloud debris across the eastern portions and limit surface heating potential across OK and northern TX especially. Which would in turn limit severe weather potential across this region.

2.) Convection holds off until the next day across western KS/ OK panhandle and texas which would allow things to get rocking early on with destabilization to occur across the region mentioned above and continue on eastward as we progress through the night.

One thing that seems certain is the potential across eastern OK/NE Texas into Arkansas for the end of the day of the 24th. That potential looks rather impressive hopefully the atmosphere doesnt cloud itself from convective debris but im sure many would be ok without the necessary severe weather.


I'm not overly convinced regarding the 24th, at least with respect to tornadoes. Other types of severe, sure, but winds are fairly meridional across eastern OK into AR w/ a strong VBV signature on GFS the farther east you go. 23rd could be interesting if DP's rise a bit more than modeled. Especially with the dynamics along dryline in western OK/NE/KS.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 19 2017, 06:33 PM
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QUOTE(JDStormsWx @ Mar 19 2017, 07:05 PM) *
I'm not overly convinced regarding the 24th, at least with respect to tornadoes. Other types of severe, sure, but winds are fairly meridional across eastern OK into AR w/ a strong VBV signature on GFS the farther east you go. 23rd could be interesting if DP's rise a bit more than modeled. Especially with the dynamics along dryline in western OK/NE/KS.


The 23rd seems to have stronger forcing for sure which would make things pretty intersting but I feel one limiting factor is definitely the DP's across that region of OK and Kansas, im not 100% sold on the idea of adding NE into the mix considering where the position of low would be. The western portion may be in play early on the 23rd along with CO and maybe even wyoming those same areas could then go over to snow on the 24th rather impressive and should speak volumes to the energy in the atmosphere.

Im concerned mainly about going gung ho on the 23rd until I see low level moisture return increase in future runs. As you had said the region of concern looks to be from central/western KS, western OK, and northern TX.

As for the 24th a lot can go wrong in that situation but if things do not pan out the way it could go for the 23rd then the 24th will be the big day. There does not seem to be large veering in the atmosphere so supercell structure in isolated storms is possible but things look to go linear for sure for the 24th.


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 12:40 PM
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As JD often reminds us, when you have tornado reports on the west coast down stream impacts usually follow

Day 2

Attached Image


QUOTE
...Sacramento Valley area...

Steep mid-level lapse rates supported by cold air aloft accompanying
the upper trough will spread inland during the day. Scattered
showers will likely be ongoing in this region in association with
ascent attending a lead shortwave trough embedded within the
synoptic trough. In the wake of this feature some cloud breaks and a
general decrease in shower activity is possible which may allow the
boundary layer to undergo some destabilization with mlcape to 500
J/kg possible. Additional storms may develop during the afternoon.
With surface winds remaining backed to southerly in the valley along
with 40 kt sfc-6 km vertical shear, a conditional risk will exist
for a few supercells with hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes
later in the afternoon into early evening
.

..Dial.. 03/20/2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 03:11 PM
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Oh wow do not know what just happened but had this whole write up for what may be to come and it just disappeared.

Well anyways its looking more of like a squall line event to take place with possible supercell/tornadic activity on the 23rd as our low starts to really get going across NE CO,SE WY, and western NE maybe down to western KS but hold my hopes because of maybe strong capping in that region until later in the evening when it can break.

Later on the convection looks to start firing across western KS down to TX across what looks like a dry line setting up, but this system seems to quickly close itself off and cause maybe less of a tornadic threat as we move east on the 24th. We may see a decent wind and maybe hail event from this but a few tornadoes can not be ruled out of this situation.

This is for the 23rd in western NE:

Attached Image


This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 20 2017, 03:12 PM


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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 20 2017, 03:45 PM
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Some of the more active analogs for this event using 12z GFS solution ordered from better to worse analogs. I think the 2011 analog is most relevant and does indicate a localized strong/long-track tornado potential.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 20 2017, 03:54 PM
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Looked at precipitation anomalies and knew I needed to throw a monthly severe thunderstorm forecast out there, image below valid through ~April 19. Edit: maybe didn't go far enough north, but threats across the western Great Lakes will be more conditional.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 20 2017, 03:55 PM
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 20 2017, 04:45 PM) *
Some of the more active analogs for this event using 12z GFS solution ordered from better to worse analogs. I think the 2011 analog is most relevant and does indicate a localized strong/long-track tornado potential.


You have upper air for 2011?

Never mind found the page I was looking for.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 20 2017, 04:02 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 20 2017, 04:45 PM) *
Some of the more active analogs for this event using 12z GFS solution ordered from better to worse analogs. I think the 2011 analog is most relevant and does indicate a localized strong/long-track tornado potential.


I do not believe we have the same dynamics for that type of event as unfolded in 2011. The 2007 event however has very stark resemblances as to what may occur across the area with ULL placement ridging on the back side and overall the pattern of the way things unfolded aloft. The surface may look quite like this event in regards of this becoming a wind event on the 24th with the 23rd having a tornadic potential in those regions I listed before. May have tweak it somewhat and maybe take out SE WY as a possibility but that will get fine tuned as we get closer.

This may have more of a cold upper level feature with it so the chances of hail would then increase.

The look of that 2007 system looks fairly decent you can see on the day before the tornadic potential that sets up.


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Weather Observer:
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 20 2017, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 20 2017, 05:41 PM) *
I do not believe we have the same dynamics for that type of event as unfolded in 2011. The 2007 event however has very stark resemblances as to what may occur across the area with ULL placement ridging on the back side and overall the pattern of the way things unfolded aloft. The surface may look quite like this event in regards of this becoming a wind event on the 24th with the 23rd having a tornadic potential in those regions I listed before. May have tweak it somewhat and maybe take out SE WY as a possibility but that will get fine tuned as we get closer.

This may have more of a cold upper level feature with it so the chances of hail would then increase.

The look of that 2007 system looks fairly decent you can see on the day before the tornadic potential that sets up.

I agree the 2007 event bears a stronger resemblance to the current forecast, but the 2011 event wasn't that far off (definitely more upper level divergence though).

However, severe thunderstorm analogs have important timing implications. The same structure 12 hours out of phase with the diurnal cycle makes a big difference so it's important not to write off the 2011 event just because 2007 looks better.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 05:55 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 20 2017, 06:35 PM) *
I agree the 2007 event bears a stronger resemblance to the current forecast, but the 2011 event wasn't that far off (definitely more upper level divergence though).

However, severe thunderstorm analogs have important timing implications. The same structure 12 hours out of phase with the diurnal cycle makes a big difference so it's important not to write off the 2011 event just because 2007 looks better.


The big reason I would write more of 2011 off is because of the 500mb structure in 2011 we had a digging trough into that portion of the country.

4/24/07 12z:
Attached Image


4/25/07 00z:
Attached Image


Versus

4/14/11 12z:
Attached Image


4/15/11 00z:
Attached Image


Alot more energy to work with in 2011 then 2007 where it seems we are cutoff as it moves through the SW. That is the main reason of the 2007 analog that stands out the most.

This is from 12zGFS:

Attached Image


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 06:07 PM
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BTW what is a good site for finding the analogs for storm systems? I have this but am trying to find something that will give me dates of past storms instead of just gathering from here.


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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 20 2017, 07:07 PM) *
BTW what is a good site for finding the analogs for storm systems? I have this but am trying to find something that will give me dates of past storms instead of just gathering from here.

It does give you the dates of analogs

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.ph...undt=2017032012


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 06:19 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 20 2017, 07:13 PM) *


Ahh figured it out for some reason it wasnt letting me go back so I just had that main page.


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Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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JDStormsWx
post Mar 20 2017, 06:52 PM
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Some point focus will also have to be the 26th-28th.. pattern looks active at least through early April. EURO weeklies highlight western troughing and eastern warmth through April 15.
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(JDStormsWx @ Mar 20 2017, 06:52 PM) *
Some point focus will also have to be the 26th-28th.. pattern looks active at least through early April. EURO weeklies highlight western troughing and eastern warmth through April 15.

Can't remember what thread he mentioned it, but JD several days(maybe a week) ago mentioned the 24th and 26th for the next two systems of interest per Organic Forecasting. Probably something to it, rarely does he miss calls that far out when making them. Guessing he seen what was a strong signal as he was a little less cryptic than normal laugh.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 12:38 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 19 2017, 03:40 AM) *
GFS once again has nasty parameters but has extreme capping and dry air aloft.


Down to this



Beautiful wind profile... classic supercell. Low tornado threat though due to very dry low-levels.



GFS and NAM are on 2 different planets. Weird to see this many differences within 84 hours.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 21 2017, 12:39 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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