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> March 17-19, 2017 Clipper-Coastal MidAtl/NE OBS, OBS & Forecasts
NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2017, 05:12 PM
Post #1




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Forecast thread was here.

This is snowstorm (event) #5 across Eastern U.S within last 2 weeks. Been busy.

March 3-5
March 9-10
March 11-12
March 13-15


Clipper today becomes a coastal tomorrow

Attached Image


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QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
513 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper low tracks south of New England this weekend, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday.


QUOTE
National Weather Service Albany NY
426 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick
moving storm system will approach from the west tomorrow and will
redevelop southeast of New Jersey and Long Island bringing mainly a
light snowfall to eastern NY and western New England.


Snowing in Western PA and Virginia right now.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 17 2017, 05:27 PM
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NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2017, 05:15 PM
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6:15pm map

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moshe from brook...
post Mar 17 2017, 05:26 PM
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Wish i can follow this more tonight through tomorrow but i cant. Good luck to where the snow will fall. Shabbat shalom.
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stilko4
post Mar 17 2017, 05:34 PM
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Can the nam go 2 for 2 in a week?


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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MaineJay
post Mar 17 2017, 05:35 PM
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QPFHSD. Very noncommittal

QUOTE
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 PM EDT FRI MAR 17 2017

VALID 00Z SAT MAR 18 2017 - 00Z TUE MAR 21 2017

...GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND NORTHEAST...

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE CLOSED ENERGY
EDGES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND HELPS DEEPEN A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WITHIN A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWNEAST MAINE WHILE THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES WILL BE IN A NARROW AXIS
REACHING FROM NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT TO EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD...AS WELL AS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD THAT STILL
EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL COULD
EASILY SHIFT FARTHER INLAND OR FARTHER OFFSHORE. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON MODEL DIFFERENCES...PLEASE REFER TO WPC'S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION (PMDHMD).


model diagnostic disco

QUOTE
12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
***SERVER ISSUES AT THE ECMWF HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN AND IS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS FINAL MODEL
PREFERENCE/ASSESSMENT***


SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY DEEPENING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC SAT WITH COASTAL SURFACE LOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MULTIPLE CYCLE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ACCORDION
AFFECT BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE: THE GFS/GEFS
FAST AND THE ECMWF/ECENS SLOW...AND APPEARS TO HAVE EXPANDED AGAIN
WITH THE MOST RECENT CYCLE. THE CONSISTENT TREND IN BOTH CAMPS
THOUGH IS CONTINUED WEAKER SOLUTION THAN THE PRIOR CYCLE AS WELL
AS LEADING TO SIMILAR EVOLUTION SHAPE/STRENGTH. THE DIFFERENCES
RESIDE MAINLY IN THE TIMING/LOADING OF THE TROF AS IT ELONGATES
NORTH TO SOUTH BUT ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
FLOW. THE 00Z ECMWF IS UNLIKE THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IN BEING SLOW
AND LOADING THE TROF LATE AND FAVORING THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROF WITH FORCING/STRENGTH...IN SUCH A MANNER THAT
THE OPERATIONAL IS EVEN ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ECENS MEMBERS
MAKING IT LESS FAVORABLE PARTICULARLY LATE MONDAY WHEN THE
DIFFERENCES ARE GREATEST. THE GFS HAS BEEN ON FASTER TREND
INITIALLY FAVORS THE LEAD PORTION OF THE TROF LEADING TO A
STRONGER NORTHWARD INJECTION OF ENERGY WITH THE TROF AS WHOLE AND
IS ALSO ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS...THE 12Z RUN
HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT CONTINUES
TO BE QUITE FAST OVERALL AND THEREFORE LESS PREFERABLE. THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE SPLIT PREFERENCE WITH THE 00Z UKMET MATCHING A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER REPRESENTATION OF THE 00Z/06Z GEFS MEMBERS/12Z GFS
OPS RUN; THE 00Z CMC MATCHING THE ECMWF THOUGH TYPICAL OF THE CMC
IS A BIT MORE CONCENTRIC/LESS ELONGATED WITH THE TROF AS A WHOLE.
THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE A NICE REPRESENTATIVE OF BOTH CAMPS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INITIALLY FAVORING THE ECMWF CAMP
PARTICULARLY ALOFT THOUGH THE UKMET/GFS AT THE LOWER LEVELS/SFC.
AFTER 19/12Z WHEN THE SPREAD IN TIMING ACCELERATES...THE 12Z NAM
EVOLUTION SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT PREFERENCE AWAY FROM TYPICAL NEGATIVE BIASES MANIFESTING
THE OTHER TWO CAMPS. AS SUCH INITIAL WPC PREFERENCE IS GOING TO
BE THE 12Z NAM THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED TO AVERAGE GIVEN THE
EVOLUTION/SHAPE APPEARS GOOD THOUGH THE TIMING AGREEMENT IS POOR
AND MILDLY VARYING WITH EACH CYCLE.


19Z UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE 12Z UKMET/CMC FROM THEIR
PRIOR RUNS. THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
NAM AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. SOME USE OF THE UKMET WITHIN A BLEND
MAY HELP TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE REMAINING SPREAD BUT OFFICIALLY
WPC WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER THE 12Z NAM AT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THE 12Z GEFS CONTINUED TO SHOW MILD CLUSTERING BUT A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION EVEN COMPARED TO THE NEXT FASTEST SOLUTION (UKMET).



--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" - Theodore Roosevelt.

MJ SN-o-meter. Each dash represents 1", 84 in total for 7', my average
//////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////

***Bonus snow***
//////////////////////////////////////////
//

130" season to date
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MaineJay
post Mar 17 2017, 05:35 PM
Post #6




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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 17 2017, 06:34 PM) *
Can the nam go 2 for 2 in a week?



WPC is favoring it


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" - Theodore Roosevelt.

MJ SN-o-meter. Each dash represents 1", 84 in total for 7', my average
//////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////

***Bonus snow***
//////////////////////////////////////////
//

130" season to date
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NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2017, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 17 2017, 06:34 PM) *
Can the nam go 2 for 2 in a week?


Lol. From Ryan earlier when the Euro was delayed.


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Storms R us
post Mar 17 2017, 06:04 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 17 2017, 06:35 PM) *
WPC is favoring it


I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket and only time will tell. Wish NNJ Warren county luck. My brother is out snowmobile right now.
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Storms R us
post Mar 17 2017, 06:06 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 17 2017, 06:46 PM) *
Lol. From Ryan earlier when the Euro was delayed.


Attached Image


What's being upgraded the EURO or NAM again.
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bradjl2009
post Mar 17 2017, 06:11 PM
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It has been snowing quite heavily at times in Pittsburgh since 5:30 or so. Too bad it won't last much longer as the back is isn't too far away and then comes the warmth in the upper levels. At least an inch here.
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Storms R us
post Mar 17 2017, 06:17 PM
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NWS State College WWA Muncy Valley, Harrisburg, Hershey and other locations snow, freezing rain and freezing drizzle. I guess the WWA is for ice on untreated roads it states. On my smartphone to post a copy.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Mar 17 2017, 06:20 PM
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NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2017, 06:26 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 17 2017, 07:06 PM) *
What's being upgraded the EURO or NAM again.


Sounds like the NAM from that message. Not 100%
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stilko4
post Mar 17 2017, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 17 2017, 07:26 PM) *
Sounds like the NAM from that message. Not 100%

It's the nam...was due to be upgraded last week, but bc of the "blizzard" it wasn't


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2017, 07:38 PM
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https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/842897165542457344

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TC1
post Mar 17 2017, 07:49 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 17 2017, 07:27 PM) *
It's the nam...was due to be upgraded last week, but bc of the "blizzard" it wasn't


Watch the upgrade utterly break it laugh.gif
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JDClapper
post Mar 17 2017, 08:09 PM
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Just me, or is radar looking a bit lame-o?

Probably just me.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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JDClapper
post Mar 17 2017, 08:44 PM
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Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 17 2017, 09:09 PM) *
Just me, or is radar looking a bit lame-o?

Probably just me.


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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JDClapper
post Mar 17 2017, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 17 2017, 09:44 PM) *
Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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NorEaster07
post Mar 17 2017, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
934 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes weakens as it tracks to
Pennsylvania through Saturday and another area of low pressure
forms off the mid Atlantic coast. This new low tracks to off
the Cape Cod coast on Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in late
Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaches Monday night, and
passes through from late Monday night into Tuesday. Another cold
front will follow on Wednesday. High pressure builds into the
region on Thursday.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Minor change to remove POPs prior to 12Z. No other changes at
this time.

While 18Z NAM is very bullish on QPF and thus SN, GFS has gone
the other direction. 15Z seems to side closer to the GFS on
amounts. Also, the 12Z ECMWF suggesting lower.

Have thus continued with previous forecast and made no
significant changes
.
NAM Boundary layer temps are right at 0 C
Saturday night as are GFS. Thus, with the coast being right at
freezing, the forecast of SN amounts is even more difficult.
Based all data seen this evening - the 2-4" forecast from the
day shift appears very good
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JDClapper
post Mar 17 2017, 09:19 PM
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0z NAM was pretty terrible across the board, if you like snow.

Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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