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> March 17-19, 2017 Clipper-Coastal MidAtl/NE OBS, OBS & Forecasts
LoveNYCSnow
post Mar 17 2017, 09:22 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 17 2017, 10:19 PM) *
0z NAM was pretty terrible across the board, if you like snow.

[attachment=324001:snku_acc.us_ne.png]

[attachment=324002:inmaREPA_.gif]


NYC went from 9.8 inches to 0 inches in one run. This is why inverted troughs are so impossible to predict.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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My2Sons
post Mar 17 2017, 09:24 PM
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That actually is a decent run for Philly, Wilmington and maybe Baltimore's NE burbs .. it is showing a more southern solution giving a chance for 2-3" if some heavier bands set up
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rtcemc
post Mar 17 2017, 09:26 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 17 2017, 09:09 PM) *
Just me, or is radar looking a bit lame-o?

Probably just me.

Uh no you would be correct. Lets keep focusing even more on model runs and never look at actual data. Is anyone looking at it???
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Storms R us
post Mar 17 2017, 09:37 PM
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How things have changed in the latest 4K nam runs that hardly show any accumulation snow the reason why you put all your eggs in one basket and how someone had mentioned before that even WPC wasn't going with the NAM. As the next several systems seem to be GLC it might be the end of NYC and south till later this winter 2017 - 2018 and hopefully a better one for all.

You noticed I said might. Mother nature an always throw a curve ball.
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Mar 17 2017, 09:37 PM
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glad to see the nam has tempered NYC expectations


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Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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stilko4
post Mar 17 2017, 09:51 PM
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QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Mar 17 2017, 10:37 PM) *
glad to see the nam has tempered NYC expectations

we didn't have high expectations from the beginning.. high hopes of decent amounts yes, expectation NO

There always has to be that one PA guy who gets a kick of no snow on li.nyc

This post has been edited by stilko4: Mar 17 2017, 09:53 PM


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Mar 17 2017, 10:56 PM
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We have a nice consensus now. c-2" for PA and NY


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Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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JDClapper
post Mar 17 2017, 11:33 PM
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Radar keeps getting worse ... wow.


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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USCG AST
post Mar 17 2017, 11:45 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 18 2017, 12:33 AM) *
Radar keeps getting worse ... wow.


Attached Image

UKie says no.


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"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill
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MaineJay
post Mar 18 2017, 01:22 AM
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Love to see that steady ECMWF hand... dry.gif

What's a 300+ mile jump within 3 days amongst friends?

Attached Image

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 18 2017, 01:22 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Mar 18 2017, 01:28 AM
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Petty significant swings within 96 hours on the ECMWF, doubt anyone will criticize the "king" however...

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--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 18 2017, 01:49 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 18 2017, 02:28 AM) *
Petty significant swings within 96 hours on the ECMWF, doubt anyone will criticize the "king" however...

Attached Image


Oh it has plenty of flaws and many times while forecasting for places have completely had to throw out the Euro for some wacky solutions that didnt make sense.

People get too hung up on exact numbers when the overall pattern should be recognized.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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geeter1
post Mar 18 2017, 04:50 AM
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Winter Weather Advisories up for Berk, Lehigh, and Pocono's
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JDClapper
post Mar 18 2017, 05:22 AM
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Micro snow flakes here .. somebody stop this storm, too much. Too much!

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Mar 18 2017, 05:24 AM
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laugh.gif .. you don't say?

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:26 AM
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Shocked, shocked I tell you.
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JDClapper
post Mar 18 2017, 05:51 AM
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Even so, the numerous micro flakes have added up to a fresh dusting on cars .. no so much the roads. 33 degrees out.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:52 AM
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31F with very light snow trying to fall. Well, I mean, it is falling - but it's trying to act as if it is more than it is.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:54 AM
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CTP issuing rapid fire updates to their snow maps. I think the last one was only out for 3 hours.

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laugh.gif laugh.gif
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JDClapper
post Mar 18 2017, 05:55 AM
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Part 2 may be more spectacular tonight. But the bar has been set very low.

3 hr snow, 3z SREFs for IPT.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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