Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

2 Pages V   1 2 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> March 22-23, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility - Short Term Forecasts D1+
Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:07 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,154
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Maybe this doesn't provide much fireworks, but this has been looking a bit more of a threat with each passing model run.

I'll just show the 18z GFS for illustrative purpose, prev runs have been more south, but have come back north in increments.

Just thought we might need this space, eventually.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 21 2017, 03:17 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Mar 18 2017, 09:13 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 23,920
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 18 2017, 10:57 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,658
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.

Essentially the same on the 0z run, just a very slight south tick:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Mar 18 2017, 10:57 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 12 / Heat Waves: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 12:06 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,154
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





SREFs for my region show a "mixy" situation

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Maybe a coating, depending on time of day.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
shane o mac
post Mar 19 2017, 12:11 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,229
Joined: 19-August 09
From: Nova Scotia Cape Breton
Member No.: 18,972





This is interesting models have come north in runs , perhaps this could clip some areas .. we need the first system to move before we can get a handle on this system .
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ryan Duff
post Mar 19 2017, 01:08 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,747
Joined: 2-February 10
From: Red Lion, PA
Member No.: 21,302





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 01:06 PM) *
SREFs for my region show a "mixy" situation

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Maybe a coating, depending on time of day.


Also a handy reminder you can bookmark/link a specific station by adding SID=xxx in the url

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=HAR (for Harrisburg)

You can also add a link to default button with PRM=button label.

So Ptype-POP for Harrisburg becomes


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplu...p;PRM=Ptype-POP


I recently discovered these when poking around the help/credits link on the page. Created a bookmark so I didn't have to select a site and parameter every time. cool.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Mar 19 2017, 01:15 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,683
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 19 2017, 02:08 PM) *
Also a handy reminder you can bookmark/link a specific station by adding SID=xxx in the url

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=HAR (for Harrisburg)

You can also add a link to default button with PRM=button label.

So Ptype-POP for Harrisburg becomes
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplu...p;PRM=Ptype-POP
I recently discovered these when poking around the help/credits link on the page. Created a bookmark so I didn't have to select a site and parameter every time. cool.gif



Rocking!

Also note to keep the 3 letter city designation capitalized..Actually case sensitive.

Thanks for the tip, Ryan...

This post has been edited by RobB: Mar 19 2017, 01:29 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Mar 19 2017, 06:13 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 23,920
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





This threat isnt really a threat for anyone


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Mar 19 2017, 07:40 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,392
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.



QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 19 2017, 07:13 PM) *
This threat isnt really a threat for anyone


Cool, thanks.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Mar 19 2017, 07:58 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,971
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





Agree not a threat to those in the areas MD/DC and north as it's seems to be suppressed south by the 18z GFS.

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 19 2017, 09:11 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,856
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 08:40 PM) *
Cool, thanks.


My daughter did inform me that she made her "end of season freezer snowman this morning" has been pretty good at getting the last one. I'll post pics tomorrow.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 20 2017, 12:13 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 37,822
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 07:40 PM) *
Cool, thanks.


Amazing how one day can change one's mind. wink.gif

EDIT: A time period of less than 12 hours!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
risingriver
post Mar 20 2017, 10:22 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,525
Joined: 5-September 08
From: Fredericksburg, VA
Member No.: 15,632





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 19 2017, 07:13 PM) *
This threat isnt really a threat for anyone


There's always next year. sad.gif I mean, DT declared snow chances done for east of the Mississippi outside of northern NE and areas of high elevation.


Doubt this would do much across NOVA. If the Sleetstorm of the Century couldn't do much, a little Clipper action might flake off some dandruff. I'm ready for spring to return.

Maybe some grassy surface accumulations, but with surface temps well above freezing, about the only transportation impacts might be bridges and overpasses early in the AM.

This post has been edited by risingriver: Mar 20 2017, 10:25 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Mar 22 2017, 08:53 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,724
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





March 22, snow is flying out there...


Watch the batch of snow come down into CT then dry up before getting to the coast. Waterbury station reported moderate snow for a little.

Those arrows at the end are wind damage reports. Tree and wires fell on a School Bus Country Club Road in Avon



Also, Binghamton having their snowiest season on record adding a little more again today.

5:45-9:45am loop

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 22 2017, 09:02 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,232
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547





Picked up between 1/4"-1/2" but the real story is the cold/wind, absolutely brutal out , roads are a sheet of ice.

20 degree drop overnight..

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 22 2017, 09:08 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
shane o mac
post Mar 22 2017, 05:15 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,229
Joined: 19-August 09
From: Nova Scotia Cape Breton
Member No.: 18,972





Nice out today , looks like 2-5 cm here tonight blizzard warnings out not sure why lol ..
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 24 2017, 03:48 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,437
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Well looks as though we missed the timeframe or just didnt update for this time but WWA across much of CPA for FZR threat. The setup is less than ideal for something like this but given Dp's across the region are around upper teens to low 20's with temps hovering around freezing to slightly below in spots if the precip makes it into places before warming takes place from sunrise some areas may see a nice glaze. Road surfaces probably not much in the way of anything except maybe side streets not already coated in tons of salt already. After about 9-10am most areas should be out of the icing threat and should just go to rain and eventually become warmer in regions, 50's in many areas mid to upper 40's back in the mountains.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 24 2017, 05:00 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,154
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 24 2017, 04:48 AM) *
Well looks as though we missed the timeframe or just didnt update for this time but WWA across much of CPA for FZR threat. The setup is less than ideal for something like this but given Dp's across the region are around upper teens to low 20's with temps hovering around freezing to slightly below in spots if the precip makes it into places before warming takes place from sunrise some areas may see a nice glaze. Road surfaces probably not much in the way of anything except maybe side streets not already coated in tons of salt already. After about 9-10am most areas should be out of the icing threat and should just go to rain and eventually become warmer in regions, 50's in many areas mid to upper 40's back in the mountains.

No one set up a thread for this bout of precip.

I was going to update the thread dates, but I've gotten some flak for doing that in the past and did not see this WWA "threat" as being anything worthy of passing mention for our area. Therefore, I didn't think any one would want to discuss so minor an event which, to my thinking, is little more than nuisance.

If someone else wanted to talk about it, they could have opened a thread. But I'm disinclined to adjust dates on this thread to accommodate that discussion.

The energy I was looking at for this time period, has already passed into history - so this thread should as well.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 24 2017, 05:01 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 24 2017, 07:34 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,856
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





ZR advisor. 31F with ZR. Quite slick indeed. Shouldn't last too long though.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 24 2017, 08:16 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,856
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 24 2017, 08:34 AM) *
ZR advisor. 31F with ZR. Quite slick indeed. Shouldn't last too long though.


and some big ole' fatty tatty flakes why not...


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

2 Pages V   1 2 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd July 2017 - 07:51 AM