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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
27 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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phillyfan

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22 Jun 2017
Well there is a marginal risk for Friday:
Attached Image
16 Jun 2017
Figured I'd open a thread for this awhile:

HWO:
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are expected to occur in much of the region on Monday
and Monday night. Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall
and localized flooding.

Sunday:
Attached Image


Monday:
Attached Image
14 Feb 2017
Opening a thread for this proverbially rain storm. Will assume rain storm for now, but last 2 runs of GFS not set in stone yet:
6z GFS:


0z GFS:
30 Jan 2017
Figured I'd take a chance and a open a thread for this system now. Been showing up on the last 4 runs of the GFS:

18z


0z:


6z:


12z:
20 Jul 2016
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY AND
PA TO NORTHERN OH/INDIANA/IL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WESTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SOME ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WELL-FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND PERHAPS
REACHING ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WHILE AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM CA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MT FRIDAY
WITH THIS LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW VARIES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
NY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IN
THAT PART OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
DESTABILIZATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EML
AND SOME SURFACE HEATING...MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM NY/PA TO NORTHERN
IL. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WEAKENS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT SUGGESTING
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
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Comments
bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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