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If you're not enjoying life as much as I am, it's not my fault!
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
58 years old
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
On Fb as the WxWiinii
Joined: 12-February 10
Profile Views: 242,754*
Last Seen: Yesterday, 06:17 PM
Local Time: Jun 21 2018, 10:24 AM
32,694 posts (11 per day)
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My Content
12 Apr 2018
In a testament to how "snow centric" this forum can be, we have an important long wave/short wave combination just a few days away, and relatively little discussion about it. So, I figured I'd better open a thread to see if anyone is truly interested.

Whether one looks at the GFS or the Euro, or even the ensembles, a super soaker is surely looming. I'll spare you my take, and just copy and paste the CTP discussion.

Model guidance has some relatively minor timing differences
with the main frontal system heading into the second half of the
weekend/early next week. The increasingly amplified springtime
pattern with distinct air masses and deep moisture feed from the
ahead of an active cold front could eventually support a
risk for heavy rain and thunderstorms - most likely in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe.

GEFS mean rainfall for locations across Central PA are in the
1.75-2.25 inch range, with some ensemble members along with the
operational EC and GFS indicating the potential for around 3
inches of storm total rainfall over the 24 to 36 hour period
where training bands of heavy rain or thunderstorms occur

The exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall is still
a bit uncertain. The higher end rainfall amounts would bring
the threat of small stream and poor drainage flooding

SPC has even introduced a risk for severe on Sunday, as this front structure has the temperature contrast and moisture content, more than ample to "get the job done"
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2 Apr 2018
Hey there rock and roll winter fans. Old Uncle Undertakerson is back to spin up yet another tune of the ol' familiar broken record I like to call "Endless Winter". So, sit right back and pour an adult beverage of your choice while we listen to each and every 8 Track(ing) days ahead.

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Here's the most recent Euro - birds eye view

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And GFS ensembles because the Op run outside of Hr96 is terrible

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Stay tuned for more classic gas from your old pal here at WUTS where we always ask "wuts up?" and we won't quit, until you cry -- UNCLE.
22 Mar 2018
I say we need an "Onion Snow" before the "winter" season can truly end. I offer that this one is "it".


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12z MREF 3/22/18

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Obvious points - such storms do not favor most of MidAtl (for wintery side) unless time of day/event is just right. ATTM I think a MAX, if stars align, accum COULD be 6" atop the tulips somewhere. Such events have strong temp contrast and can spark random rumbles of thundersnow, which can be intense for brief periods. Other than that, rain or mix for many.

But this should favor MidAtl, by geographic consideration - IOW, the storm does hit from NC and North, but again, has a limited "white" side to it.

The GFS Op map seems to want to make more of it. I'm not buying just yet.

Looooooonnnnngggg way to go.
18 Mar 2018
Well, everyone is talking about it already - but using the Spring Awakening storm thread to do so. So, I figured I'd give those posts a place to land
GFS slides along Mason Dixon
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Euro takes I-76 from OH to NJ
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WPC lays out the front to suggest that either is possible, with most probable being a slightly south of Mason Dixon sidle

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On the OFM side of the ledger, we have the EAR

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(this post will be built upon as time allows)
15 Mar 2018
Figured we'd need a place for posters to give their obsx eventually.

Our little "inland diver" system. ( Yes, I know NE is not in this one and it's MA only, but rules are rules)

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