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vomit
post Sep 11 2014, 07:23 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 11 2014, 05:09 PM) *
Interesting mention from my local weather office today, heads up for all you that live in the northern reaches.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

Thanks. But I think the clouds are gonna throw me under the bus! Alas.


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tool483
post Sep 12 2014, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 11 2014, 05:09 PM) *
Interesting mention from my local weather office today, heads up for all you that live in the northern reaches.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


Yea, i think your going to see something. . they say place's in maryland might see it too!>?

i've never seen and would love to get something tonight.

got my cheaper camera ready laugh.gif , i mean check this out already!

Attached Image


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MaineJay
post Sep 12 2014, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(tool483 @ Sep 12 2014, 06:09 PM) *
Yea, i think your going to see something. . they say place's in maryland might see it too!>?

i've never seen and would love to get something tonight.

got my cheaper camera ready laugh.gif , i mean check this out already!


Well, the activity really dropped off, by the time I got to the lake it wasn't as intense. I'll be monitoring the situation, and head out if it looks good. Here are the best two shots I got. I believe the reddish hues are a result of helium being involved in the coronal mass ejections.

From my backyard, the shooting star was a nice addition cool.gif

Attached Image


Down the lake

Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Sep 12 2014, 08:45 PM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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tool483
post Sep 12 2014, 10:51 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 12 2014, 09:41 PM) *
Well, the activity really dropped off, by the time I got to the lake it wasn't as intense. I'll be monitoring the situation, and head out if it looks good. Here are the best two shots I got. I believe the reddish hues are a result of helium being involved in the coronal mass ejections.

From my backyard, the shooting star was a nice addition cool.gif

Attached Image


Down the lake

Attached Image


great shots! Thanks for uploading those. . pretty disappointed, K index was predicted 7 at this point. . .it seems to have fizzeled but will keep checking sites. They say midnight is about the best time. maps dont look good right now tho


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MaineJay
post Sep 13 2014, 05:39 AM
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QUOTE(tool483 @ Sep 12 2014, 11:51 PM) *
great shots! Thanks for uploading those. . pretty disappointed, K index was predicted 7 at this point. . .it seems to have fizzeled but will keep checking sites. They say midnight is about the best time. maps dont look good right now tho

Looks like it just shut off
Attached Image

Thanks for visiting us mutants at table #9 (bonus points if you get the movie reference). I'm happy to share the pictures, I did some tweaking on a couple shots, layered one and brought out some more color.

Attached Image

Attached Image



The lesson I learned, strike while the iron is hot. I saw that sunset was looking good, but I wanted more darkness. Next time I will be set up before sundown, and just be patient. SWPC hasn't updated this morning, but I thought tonight might give one last show, provided the clouds cooperate dry.gif .

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Sep 13 2014, 05:42 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Sep 13 2014, 05:41 AM
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One more

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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vomit
post Sep 13 2014, 07:19 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 12 2014, 09:41 PM) *
Well, the activity really dropped off, by the time I got to the lake it wasn't as intense. I'll be monitoring the situation, and head out if it looks good. Here are the best two shots I got. I believe the reddish hues are a result of helium being involved in the coronal mass ejections.

From my backyard, the shooting star was a nice addition cool.gif

Attached Image


Down the lake

Attached Image


Sweet!!!!!

As predicted I was clouded out.


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MaineJay
post Oct 29 2014, 09:21 PM
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Just a heads up, some increased auroral activity possible tomorrow night, skies should be clear here.

As active region 2192 (biggest sunspot in 24 years) is rotating off the disc, hopefully it's as energetic when it comes back around in 2 weeks. It also appears a new area is about to rotate into the disc. 2192 didn't have any CMEs, but like 6 X class flares, this new one looks like it popped a CME recently, perhaps it will deliver.

QUOTE
.Forecast...
Day 1 (30 Oct) is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions, with a
chance for active levels, in response to the anticipated sector boundary
change and onset of the high speed stream. Generally quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a continued chance for active levels are expected
through day 2 (31 Oct). By day three (01 Nov), mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected with a slight chance for an active
period.

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Oct 29 2014, 09:22 PM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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vomit
post Oct 30 2014, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 29 2014, 10:21 PM) *
Just a heads up, some increased auroral activity possible tomorrow night, skies should be clear here.

As active region 2192 (biggest sunspot in 24 years) is rotating off the disc, hopefully it's as energetic when it comes back around in 2 weeks. It also appears a new area is about to rotate into the disc. 2192 didn't have any CMEs, but like 6 X class flares, this new one looks like it popped a CME recently, perhaps it will deliver.
http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion


Thanks for the heads up...but it looks like we are gonna be clouded out.....as usual.


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MaineJay
post Nov 3 2014, 09:01 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 29 2014, 09:21 PM) *
As active region 2192 (biggest sunspot in 24 years) is rotating off the disc, hopefully it's as energetic when it comes back around in 2 weeks. It also appears a new area is about to rotate into the disc. 2192 didn't have any CMEs, but like 6 X class flares, this new one looks like it popped a CME recently, perhaps it will deliver.
http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion


I'm getting optimistic!

Attached Image


http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph

QUOTE
Region 12192 is one for the history books, but a new region rotating into view (Region 12205) is a cause for concern. The region has been the source of two Radio Blackout storms on 3 November, an R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout and an R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout. It has also been the source of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which Region 12192 seemed to be incapable of producing. None of the CMEs seen so far pose a threat to Earth, but as the region rotates into a more favorable position, that could change. SWPC forecasters are keeping a close eye on this region and we will keep this page updated as conditions warrant.


http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/one-r...its-place-12205


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 4 2014, 06:22 PM
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Starting to rotate onto the disc, let's hope 2205 doesn't disappoint! This thing had a flare nearly reach x class from the backside.



http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2014-11-04

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 4 2014, 06:24 PM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 7 2014, 06:48 PM
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2205 is beginning to deliver some CMEs, should be in decent orientation to be directed to earth for about the next week. Bz has shifted a bit south, I have since learned that in September the Bz shifted north and screwed us. My very tangential knowledge is that Bz is like a kink in Earth's magnetic field.

I wonder if the slowness of this CME could be beneficial if another faster one happens in the next couple days that could catch it.

Clear skies!!! Right Vomit smile.gif


QUOTE
REGION 2205 PRODUCES A X1 SOLAR FLARE - R3 RADIO BLACKOUT EVENT (UPDATED)
Region 2205 produced a X1 solar flare (NOAA Scale R3 - Radio Blackout) event at 1726 UTC (12:26 EST) on 07 November 2014. The impact of the flare itself was short-lived degradation to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth. There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event, and although only a couple of ESA/NASA SOHO LASCO coronograph images are available at this time, it is clear the associated CME is not particularly fast nor headed directly at Earth (shown in this LASCO image as the faint structure propagating to the upper left). Detailed modeling of this event will occur once all coronagraph images become available to determine what, if any, impact can be expected as a result.

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/regio...t-event-updated


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 8 2014, 09:16 AM
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I'm going to keep updating in here, even though only vomit likely reads it. smile.gif

I've got the camera charged and ready to go! I'll be checking conditions often, they are getting more favorable by the day it seems.

Timing during the day sucks, but southward Bz could compensate.

Beta-gamma-delta is not a fraternity or sorority, it's an unstable magnetic field smile.gif


QUOTE
24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels this period as Region 2205 (N15E25,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1 flare at 07/1726 UTC. Associated
with the X-class flare were Type II (602 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps
along with a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 07/1808 UTC. WSA/ENLIL modeling of the event
shows a partially Earth-directed component that is expected to impact
the geomagnetic field early to midday on 10 November
. Other activity
included a C1 flare, also from Region 2205, at 07/2348 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep (829 km/s). Slight penumbral growth and
consolidation was observed in the intermediate and trailing portions of
Region 2205. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in
decay. New Region 2207 (S08E71, Hax/alpha) rotated around the SE limb
and was numbered during the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one-two (08-09 Nov). The arrival of the CME associated with the X1
flare on 07 Nov is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early to
midday on day three (10 Nov) causing active to major storm conditions
(G1-G2, Minor to Moderate).

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 8 2014, 11:49 AM
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QUOTE
R3 RADIO BLACKOUT - G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORMING POSSIBLE
Region 2205 produced a X1 solar flare (NOAA Scale R3 - Radio Blackout) event at 1726 UTC (12:26 EST) on 07 November 2014. The impact of the flare itself was short-lived degradation to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth. There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event, and WSA-Enlil modeling (shown here) shows Earth encountering the edge of this disturbance mid-day UTC (early EST) on November 10th. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely and isolated G2 (Moderate) storming is possible. Region 2205 remains fairly steady in size and complexity at this time, and while not particularly large, has certainly shown itself capable of producing mid-level activity.


Attached Image



http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/r3-ra...orming-possible

WSA-Enlil model


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 9 2014, 07:39 AM
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Latest SDO imagery, more active spots could be rotating onto the disc



http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2014-11-09


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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vomit
post Nov 9 2014, 10:15 AM
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Thanks for the updates. And, yes I do check this place regularly. Sky action, here, is slowing to a snails pace. The grey & gloom of late fall/winter is here. Alas.

I did get a nice visual of a large sunspot group a few weeks ago with the PST. Heck, we used some welders glasses at work, and we could see it easily.

Clear skies.


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MaineJay
post Nov 9 2014, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(vomit @ Nov 9 2014, 10:15 AM) *
Thanks for the updates. And, yes I do check this place regularly. Sky action, here, is slowing to a snails pace. The grey & gloom of late fall/winter is here. Alas.

I did get a nice visual of a large sunspot group a few weeks ago with the PST. Heck, we used some welders glasses at work, and we could see it easily.

Clear skies.


I just found a random welders mask in the woods at an abandoned camp today, I took the glass out and might try to rig it up to the Nikon. unsure.gif biggrin.gif


I know you check up on things my friend. smile.gif


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 9 2014, 08:14 PM
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Looks like I might have to make it a long night. I'm gonna do my best. It's clear now, but clouds are progged to move in.

Bz shifted north, hopefully it doesn't mess it up.

QUOTE
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 09/1811Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1710Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).


III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 132
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 135/145/150
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 025/034-014/018-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/25
Minor Storm 35/30/05
Major-severe storm 25/15/01

B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 75/70/30

Attached Image

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/r...ysical-activity


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 16 2014, 05:47 AM
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I really effed up. The Auroras fired up last night, and my lazy *bleep* slept. mad.gif I'm so disappointed in me right now, I knew there was a chance too. I meant to post about the possibilities even, skies were crystal clear, cold, zero wind, and I pretty much just dropped the ball and couldn't stay awake. It's been an exhausting week, but in reality, a lame excuse.

Well, activity should be elevated the next couple days, but in my brief experience, these events seem to either arrive a tad earlier than forecast, or just have more intensity in the front end. But I imagine each Aurora is unique.
Gonna be cloudy tonight, I'll keep abreast of the situation if they persist into Monday night.


2205 ended up a dud by and large. The return of 2192 now 2209 I believe, hopefully brings some CMEs.

Edit: ooh, just saw this on the SWPC site

QUOTE
THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 2192.
Region 2209, located in the lower left quadrant of the solar disk, is actually the return of Region 2192. When this region previously made its way across the visible disk, just about a month ago, it was the largest sunspot group in decades, and produced several R1-R3 radio blackouts. Although not quite as impressive in size, it is still a large region with a complex magnetic structure, and is capable of producing even more X-ray flare activity. It has already produced two M-class flares (R1-Minor radio blackouts), and has only been on the Earth-side of the sun for a couple of days. And, unlike its previous transit, it appears to have coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with some of its flare activity. This could mean an increased probability for elevated geomagnetic storming. Forecasters will be monitoring this region closely over the next week and a half as it makes its way across the visible disk. Stay tuned here for updates.

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/return-old-region-2192


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 16 2014, 07:24 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Nov 30 2014, 05:20 AM
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Looks like activity may be in the rise. Unfortunately, I missed a viewing opportunity last week dry.gif work has been exhausting.

Although these CMEs aren't directed toward earth, but they have been numerous,, my feeling is that they will increase, if only slightly, plasma densities. They tend to expand and occupy a great deal of space.

Solar winds have been rather low, that should change as we are influenced by the coronal hole.

Region 2219 will only be a threat for a few more days, 2222 is our best bet for now, but more spots appear to be the horizon.



http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2014-11-30

QUOTE
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 2219 (N05W47,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 2222 (S21E30, Ekc/beta-gamma) were the largest
and most prolific flare producers over the past 24 hours. At 29/0201
UTC, Region 2222 produced a long duration C4/Sf with an associated 1100
sfu Tenflare. Later in the period, this region produced a C6/Sn at
29/0821 UTC with weak to moderate multiple frequency radio emissions.
Region 2219 was responsible for a few low-level C-class events and a C6
at 29/1349 UTC. These regions both grew and 2219 may have developed a
delta magnetic configuration in the leader spot.


A 12 degree long filament, centered near N27W12, was observed erupting
in the NW quadrant at approximately 28/1500 UTC. GONG and SDO/AIA 193
and 304 imagery observed material moving out of the eruptive channel in
a NW direction across the disk. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery subsequently
observed a slow-moving CME off the NW limb, first visible at 28/2148
UTC. Analysis and model output suggest the event will not produce
significant effects at Earth.


A complex series of eruptions was later observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery emerging from the north and east quadrant of the
disk. The first emerged from the north around 28/2348 UTC and was
followed by two from the east at 29/0125 UTC and 29/0236 UTC,
respectively. At least one of the CMEs can be correlated with an
eruption on the northeast limb at 29/0142 UTC visible in SDO/AIA 304.
None of the eruptions appear obviously Earth-directed, but further
analysis will be necessary to rule out any threat.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (30 Nov -
02 Dec). Regions 2219 and 2222 are the most likely sources based
on their magnetic complexity and continued growth.


QUOTE
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels (Below
G1-Minor) for the first day of the forecast period (30 Nov). Day two
(01 Dec) is expected to see unsettled conditions with a chance for
active levels as a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to become geoeffective. These conditions are
expected to last through 02 Dec.

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 30 2014, 05:36 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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