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> Aurora Borealis, viewing information
MaineJay
post Dec 7 2014, 07:06 AM
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Elevated chances at the auroras tonight. I believe this is due to high speed solar winds emanating from the large coronal hole near the suns south pole. Tonight looks like my only shot, as a protracted precipitation event is expected this week.

There may have been a CME in the last few hours, but LASCO chronograph imagery is wonky right now making it difficult to discern. Likely not earth directed however.

Attached Image


QUOTE
24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to the
arrival of the high speed solar wind stream.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be disturbed by the high speed
solar wind stream for the next three days (07-09 Dec). Unsettled to
active levels are likely, with a slight chance for and isolated minor
storm period.

http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Dec 7 2014, 07:06 AM


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MaineJay
post Dec 11 2014, 05:13 AM
Post #42




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So, I drew all over some X-ray imagery

Attached Image

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-sol...-ray-imager-sxi

Circled in green is a coronal hole. High speed solar wind animate from this region, and should become geoeffective very soon, this alone can increase the auroras.

Unfortunately, LASCO chronograph imagery appeared to indicate CME activity, but there are large gaps the image loop, making it very difficult to discern location and number of possible CMEs. It's certainly possible a CME came from region 2230, center of solar disc, circled in blue. This spot has grown very quickly and is eager to flare.

This would be ideal for Auroras, as it's pointed at earth. More likely however, some energetic C class flares trigger a response from region 2225, which is rotating off the west limb, circled in red. A CME does us no good here, it only increases the chance of a proton event, the effects of which I'm unsure, but I'm pretty sure they don't help auroras.

Lastly, rotating onto the east limb, circled in purple, is our old friend, once 2192, then 2209, still looks energetic.


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MaineJay
post Dec 17 2014, 05:13 AM
Post #43




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Active region 2242 just fired off an M9 flare, so very close to X class. Even more exciting, it may have had a CME, and would be pointed at earth! It has a beta-gamma-delta configuration, x class flares are still very possible.

More details as data becomes available. LASCO chronograph data is spotty, but this image is promising
Attached Image

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph



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MaineJay
post Dec 17 2014, 05:25 AM
Post #44




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Aimed directly at earth... just hoping it didn't shoot off to the south

Attached Image


http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2014-12-17


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MaineJay
post Dec 18 2014, 05:31 PM
Post #45




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Another CME, the previous one was largely directed south, but sp could arrive tomorrow night (19th)

Pigging backing another one would be real nice

QUOTE
FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) 2014 Dec 18
21:28:26

Based on new LASCO C3 imagery, the CME associated to the M8.7 flare of
December 17 is a halo CME with an estimated velocity of 538 km/s, which
yields an estimated arrival time at Earth around 15h UT on December 20. As
a result, active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions are possible on
December 20 and 21.

http://sidc.oma.be


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MaineJay
post Dec 19 2014, 07:55 PM
Post #46




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Well things are really getting interesting.

First
QUOTE
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin day one (20 Dec) with active
conditions and the chance for an isolated minor geomagnetic storm (NOAA
Scale- G1) when the 17 Dec CME is expected to provide a glancing blow
impact to Earths magnetic field. By early to midday on day two (21 Dec)
the second CME, from 18 Dec, is expected to cause active to major storm
(G2-Moderate) conditions as it impacts the geomagnetic field. Waning
conditions are expected on day three (22 Dec), with an isolated residual
G1 storm possible.


In the last hour, we had an X class flare! If a CME is associated with it we could have a great viewing opportunity, on top of the current potential
Attached Image

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov


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mmi16
post Dec 21 2014, 03:36 AM
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Let there be Northern Lights!


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MaineJay
post Dec 23 2014, 07:35 PM
Post #48




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QUOTE(mmi16 @ Dec 21 2014, 03:36 AM) *
Let there be Northern Lights!


Unfortunately we need clear skies too

Attached Image


QUOTE
ADDITIONAL CME ACTIVITY
published: Tuesday, December 23, 2014 14:39 UTC
Following three previous coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals over the past couple of days, a fourth CME arrived at Earth at approximately 1117 UTC (0617 EST) on 23 December. This CME was likely associated with an R1(Minor) radio blackout flare event that occurred on 21 December from NOAA Active Region 12241. However, when there are multiple CMEs occurring in a relatively short time span, exact attribution can be difficult. The arrival of the latest CME also brought with it elevated Proton flux levels. The enhancement briefly exceeded the S1-Minor alert threshold, but quickly returned to below S1 levels. Additionally, this increase in activity has also increased our chances of additional geomagnetic storm conditions. Currently, we are below the G1-minor alert threshold, but G1 -Minor storm conditions are possible throughout the remainder of today, with effects possibly spilling over into tomorrow (24 Dec). Stay tuned here for updates as they happen

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/additional-cme-activity


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MaineJay
post Jan 9 2015, 05:26 AM
Post #49




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Well, apologies for no updates the last 2 weeks, obviously the comet has siphoned off some interest, but I have been monitoring the sun. We actually had a random episode the morning of the 7th where the Kp index went to 7 briefly, albeit while it was daylight dry.gif .

I expect solar activity to be on the rise, will keep any intrepid souls who dare venture into the astronomy forum updated. The east limb looks promising


Attached Image

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2015-01-09


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vomit
post Jan 9 2015, 07:21 AM
Post #50




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jan 9 2015, 05:26 AM) *
Well, apologies for no updates the last 2 weeks, obviously the comet has siphoned off some interest, but I have been monitoring the sun. We actually had a random episode the morning of the 7th where the Kp index went to 7 briefly, albeit while it was daylight dry.gif .

I expect solar activity to be on the rise, will keep any intrepid souls who dare venture into the astronomy forum updated. The east limb looks promising


Attached Image

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2015-01-09



OK. If we ever get any clear skies here, I will put the PST onto the sun, and see what I can see.

WATCH THE SKIES!


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MaineJay
post Jan 13 2015, 07:49 PM
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The suns activity is waning, however we had some CME activity. High hopes for tomorrow night!

QUOTE
INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2015 Jan 13 13:03:50

There were two M class flares early today (M5.6 at 04:24 UT and M4.9 at
04:58 UT) from NOAA AR 2257. No associated CME was observed. More M-flares
can be expected and due to the position of this AR very close to the west
limb, a proton event at Earth may occur. The other ARs visible on disk are
not expected to produce more than C-class flaring. A partial halo CME
originating from NOAA AR 2261 was seen appearing first in LASCO-C2 at 15:36
UT on January 12. It is a faint CME with speed around 1000 km/s, that could
have an Earth directed component with a possible predicted arrival on
January 14 around 19:00 UT
.Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to
remain so until the eventual arrival of the partial halo CME from January
12.

http://sidc.oma.be


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MaineJay
post Jan 22 2015, 05:30 AM
Post #52




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After a fairly inactive period on the sun, there is some potential on the suns east limb.

Attached Image

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2015-01-22


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MaineJay
post Jan 30 2015, 06:01 AM
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The moon is screwing us out of the comet, but the sun is trying to deliver some auroras.


AR2277 on the northeast limb looks angry. smile.gif

Attached Image

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday_v2/index....date=2015-01-30

Attached Image
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov


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MaineJay
post Mar 17 2015, 09:38 PM
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Thanks to a heads up by UTS, I got a couple aurora shots tonight.


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vomit
post Mar 20 2015, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 17 2015, 09:38 PM) *
Thanks to a heads up by UTS, I got a couple aurora shots tonight.


Sweetness! Thanks for the pix!


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mmi16
post Apr 28 2015, 02:28 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 17 2015, 10:38 PM) *
Thanks to a heads up by UTS, I got a couple aurora shots tonight.

Thanks for the pics!


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MaineJay
post Jun 24 2015, 05:31 AM
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Missed a golden chance at auroras the other night mad.gif perhaps a chance at some tonight though!

QUOTE
ANOTHER STORM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
published: Tuesday, June 23, 2015 03:27 UTC
The coronal mass ejection that erupted June 22 in conjunction with the R2 solar flare has been modeled and arrival is expected June 24 at 2300 UT (7 pm EDT). This timing bodes well for aurora watchers in North America. As for the expected intensity, SWPC is continuing to analyze the event and will update the forecast when this analysis is complete. Stay tuned here for updates.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/another-stor...y-nightthursday


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MaineJay
post Aug 27 2015, 06:46 PM
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Potential auroras tonight



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g2-moderate-...orming-observed


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MaineJay
post Nov 1 2015, 08:09 PM
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Potential for auroras on the 2nd and 3rd.

QUOTE
A G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for 02 November (UTC day) and a G2 (Moderate) watch has been issued for 03 November as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to disturb the Earth’s magnetic field. This particular feature was associated with G3 conditions last rotation. The image is a 30 day plot of the solar wind as it was seen at the STEREO spacecraft. The high speed stream passed by the spacecraft on the backside of the Sun on 20 October. This gives forecasters a good estimate of when to expect the coronal hole to impact the Earth as well as possible solar wind speeds we might see. To learn more about coronal holes, check out http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes .



Looks like tomorrow just after sunset might be the best chance. Although the rooster shift could catch a glimpse it would appear.

CODE

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 02-Nov 04 2015

Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04
00-03UT 3 6 (G2) 4
03-06UT 4 6 (G2) 3
06-09UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 3
09-12UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 3
12-15UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 3
15-18UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 3
18-21UT 7 (G3) 4 4
21-00UT 6 (G2) 4 4


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-strong-g2...-02-03-november

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 1 2015, 08:11 PM


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MaineJay
post Dec 20 2015, 05:00 PM
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I was out early this morning, but too many clouds. G2 storm in progress. Might have to fund a little time this evening. Magnetic field is pretty far south too.


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
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