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> July 17th Severe Weather MidAlt/NE, Forecasts, Discussions
phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern Pennsylvania...much of New
York...Much of Vermont...western New Hampshire...far western
Massachusetts...and far northwestern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171614Z - 171815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Band of convection are ongoing in northwestern portions of
the discussion area, and a general increase is expected through the
afternoon hours. A WW may be needed later in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An extensive, broken band of convection is gradually
increasing in intensity across northern and central New York State,
with more isolated convection increasing ahead of this band across
the remainder of the discussion area. Northern portions of this
band have begun to forward propagate eastward and should reach
western Vermont within the next hour. These storms are in an
environment characterized by sufficient (30-35 kt) deep shear for
some storm organization along with substantial surface heating
within the pre-convective airmass, fostering moderate instability
(around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE in northeastern New York increasing to
around 3000 J/kg MUCAPE in central Pennsylvania). A fairly
expansive (and increasingly agitated) cumulus field exists
downstream of ongoing convection, and model point forecast soundings
indicate minimal convective inhibition, which should allow for a
continued (diurnally driven) increase in convective coverage and
intensity this afternoon.

Convective trends will be monitored for an evolving
isolated-to-scattered wind damage threat, which may necessitate a
severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.

..Cook/Hart.. 07/17/2017


One warned cell so far:

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC079-131-171730-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0087.170717T1642Z-170717T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1242 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Wyoming County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 130 PM EDT

* At 1241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Shickshinny,
or 10 miles northeast of Berwick, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
Muhlenberg around 1250 PM EDT.
Sweet Valley and Mountain Top around 1255 PM EDT.
Sugar Notch around 105 PM EDT.
Edwardsville around 115 PM EDT.
Luzerne around 120 PM EDT.
Wilkes-Barre and Harveys Lake around 125 PM EDT.
Pittston, Falls and West Wyoming around 130 PM EDT.


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 17 2017, 11:44 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 17 2017, 12:02 PM
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ooooohhhhhhhhhh another phillyfan special. Havent you had enough?! selfish much? geez.

Reading, PA has suffered its 200 year flood this summer (a large puddle in town square that lasted for several hours) and you want more? Abhorrent behavior my friend. For shame.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 17 2017, 12:03 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 17 2017, 12:16 PM
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Nice looking cell gaining momentum south west of Scranton, she starting to gain some forward motion, also cells forming near the York, Lancaster, cape is around 3,000? could be some nice hail producers.
Edit 13:20 looking at the velocity map I think im seeing some rotation form in the cell by Scranton, may have to grab the popcorn for this.

This post has been edited by KENNYP2339: Jul 17 2017, 12:20 PM
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phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 17 2017, 01:02 PM) *
ooooohhhhhhhhhh another phillyfan special. Havent you had enough?! selfish much? geez.

Reading, PA has suffered its 200 year flood this summer (a large puddle in town square that lasted for several hours) and you want more? Abhorrent behavior my friend. For shame.

well there is a cell just off to my south. Top of the ground is dry though already made a little dust mowing at certain spots last night. laugh.gif

Getting surrounded by dark clouds to my northwest and south.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 17 2017, 12:25 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 12:29 PM
Post #5




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Warning on the cell to the northwest of me.
QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC011-171800-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0105.170717T1720Z-170717T1800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
120 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 200 PM EDT

* At 120 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pine Grove,
or 9 miles north of Myerstown, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect damage to
trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Strausstown.


and also flood advisory up:
QUOTE
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
124 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

PAC011-172030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0094.170717T1724Z-170717T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Berks PA-
124 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 430 PM EDT

* At 124 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to one inch of rain has already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Reading, Wyomissing, Kutztown, Hamburg, Fleetwood, Sinking Spring,
Laureldale, Womelsdorf, Wernersville, Newmanstown, Leesport,
Shoemakersville, Bernville, Lyons, Strausstown, Lenhartsville,
Fairview Hgts, Spring Ridge, West Reading and Centerport.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 12:42 PM
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Figured this coming for the cell off to my north along I78:

QUOTE
Flash Flood Warning
PAC011-172145-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0021.170717T1741Z-170717T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
141 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 545 PM EDT

* At 140 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hamburg, Womelsdorf, Shoemakersville, Bernville, Strausstown and
Centerport. This also includes Interstate 78 in western Berks
County.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to two inches are possible in the
warned area.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 17 2017, 01:05 PM
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Working near avp

Lots of thunder nonstop to my west

Think storms are literally firing right on top of me

Not much rain yet though


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Black05GSR
post Jul 17 2017, 01:12 PM
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Are these storms even moving? Looks like they are just building while staying stationary.


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 01:15 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 17 2017, 02:05 PM) *
Working near avp

Lots of thunder nonstop to my west

Think storms are literally firing right on top of me

Not much rain yet though

Haven't seen a drop here yet, have had constant thunder since 12pm....

Seeing a red bullseye of 5" on I78 on radar estimate.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 17 2017, 01:17 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 17 2017, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 17 2017, 02:15 PM) *
Haven't seen a drop here yet, have had constant thunder since 12pm....

Seeing a red bullseye of 5" on I78 on radar estimate.



Started to pour off and on here

One huge rumble to my west now just slight grumbling



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phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 01:20 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 17 2017, 02:18 PM) *
Started to pour off and on here

One huge rumble to my west now just slight grumbling

I have drizzle, it's like it's hitting a brick wall here.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 17 2017, 01:22 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Jul 17 2017, 02:12 PM) *
Are these storms even moving? Looks like they are just building while staying stationary.


Not with a skew t like this:

Attached Image


It seems the only saving grace for these storms to not fully just collapse on themselves is the marginal wind and winds aloft tilting the updraft slightly enough.

Been getting constant thunder all around from storms but have yet to really experience anything.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Miller A
post Jul 17 2017, 01:27 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Jul 17 2017, 02:12 PM) *
Are these storms even moving? Looks like they are just building while staying stationary.


Per Post #5 above

"* At 120 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pine Grove,
or 9 miles north of Myerstown, moving northeast at 5 mph."

I thought the same thing.


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 17 2017, 01:37 PM
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Bam big bolt

Lights flickered


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phillyfan
post Jul 17 2017, 01:39 PM
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and here comes the pouring rain.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 17 2017, 01:42 PM
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Half dollar hail reported by the cell near Scranton, If I were there I would collect the hail, refreeze it and use it for my drinks in the winter when we cradle this site waiting for an approaching nor'easter
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 17 2017, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 17 2017, 02:42 PM) *
Half dollar hail reported by the cell near Scranton, If I were there I would collect the hail, refreeze it and use it for my drinks in the winter when we cradle this site waiting for an approaching nor'easter


Great Post.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Miller A
post Jul 17 2017, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 17 2017, 02:42 PM) *
Half dollar hail reported by the cell near Scranton, If I were there I would collect the hail, refreeze it and use it for my drinks in the winter when we cradle this site waiting for an approaching nor'easter


nerd. tongue.gif

I can't find any weather related beverage names other than maybe mudslide. Any others?


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 17 2017, 01:51 PM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Jul 17 2017, 02:48 PM) *
nerd. tongue.gif

I can't find any weather related beverage names other than maybe mudslide. Any others?


I fond of ice picks...


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KENNYP2339
post Jul 17 2017, 01:55 PM
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If I had my own hail ice I would home brew something and name it storm.
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