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> February 9th-11th MidAtl/Northeast DKBIII Blizzard, Cogitation: Short Range [0-3 Days Out]
ThatComoGuy
post Feb 2 2017, 11:32 PM
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Still there but system on the west coast seems to be breaking down the western ridging we have.
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 3 2017, 05:40 AM
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Euro does not show a storm. And now the 6z gfs loses the storm too mimic the euro. Wow back to back dud of winters
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MaineJay
post Feb 3 2017, 07:07 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 2 2017, 09:08 PM) *
I was thinking we shouldn't open a thread more than 3 days before a storm, that way we could never learn anything. I was also thinking we never should have landed on the moon, invented the cell phone, started the internet, cable, and who was that crazy nut that started the whole computer craze!



Lol, landed on the moon, wasn't that the original fake news (edit: forgot the correct term is "alternative facts"). Staged. dry.gif

Seriously though, we could do that maybe like 45-48 years ago, not today...

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 3 2017, 07:16 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 3 2017, 07:41 AM
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It appears the overnight CMC model Lost the idea of a storm affecting the East Coast. there is something that forms well out to sea

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Feb 3 2017, 07:46 AM
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ThatComoGuy
post Feb 3 2017, 08:25 AM
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Looking up stream, there doesn't seem to be any clear northern or southern source of the systems. They all get muddled in the middle and keep interacting, thus the constant changes. Seems to have been the problem a few times this winter
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Blizz
post Feb 3 2017, 08:58 AM
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NY NJ PA Weather ‏@nynjpaweather 4h4 hours ago
More
An icy threat is developing for Tuesday morning, especially for the northern interior. Meanwhile, the start of Spring is in sight!

Looks like this may be our final shot if Steve D's analysis is right.


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Conyngham, PA - 44" per year
Season to Date: 48.4"
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 10
Blizzard Warnings: 1
Tornado Warnings: 1

Previous Winters (2011-2016): 21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0"
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PhillySnowLover
post Feb 3 2017, 09:11 AM
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It looks like the GFS PARA has the storm.
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phillyfan
post Feb 3 2017, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 3 2017, 05:40 AM) *
Euro does not show a storm. And now the 6z gfs loses the storm too mimic the euro. Wow back to back dud of winters

This is why I said yesterday to wait on starting this thread knew that could happen it was only there on the gfs for 3 runs in a row. Last year had a big one.... oh wait your northern PA I feel your pain. sad.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 12 / Heat Waves: 3
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phillyfan
post Feb 3 2017, 09:29 AM
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QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Feb 3 2017, 09:11 AM) *
It looks like the GFS PARA has the storm.

On the 0z PARA, wait and see 6z PARA probably loses it as well.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 12 / Heat Waves: 3
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 3 2017, 09:37 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 3 2017, 09:28 AM) *
This is why I said yesterday to wait on starting this thread knew that could happen it was only there on the gfs for 3 runs in a row. Last year had a big one.... oh wait your northern PA I feel your pain. sad.gif

I agree. We should not be able to create threads for storms until they're at least 5 days away or 150hrs out. We keep getting burned by these models. We seem to latch onto the one we like the best. There's one simple rule we need to follow and we'll be alright. The euro is king and follow it closely lol

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Feb 3 2017, 09:37 AM
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SnowMan11
post Feb 3 2017, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 3 2017, 10:37 AM) *
I agree. We should not be able to create threads for storms until they're at least 5 days away or 150hrs out. We keep getting burned by these models. We seem to latch onto the one we like the best. There's one simple rule we need to follow and we'll be alright. The euro is king and follow it closely lol


None of the models are king


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Anthony
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 3 2017, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 3 2017, 09:41 AM) *
None of the models are king

It's the best of the bunch, no denying that.
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2017, 10:29 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 3 2017, 09:37 AM) *
I agree. We should not be able to create threads for storms until they're at least 5 days away or 150hrs out. We keep getting burned by these models. We seem to latch onto the one we like the best. There's one simple rule we need to follow and we'll be alright. The euro is king and follow it closely lol

PARD, no no no. If someone doesn't like that a thread is more than 5 days out, just don't tune in. Man, look at what JD Renken has done for the weather world by looking out farther into the future. The only way to get better at longer range forecasting is to forecast it. If you notice when posters like UT open a longer range thread, they preface by saying "look this is far out, but this is what could happen", and doesn't just use some model printout. So if you don't your heart broken, don't tune in. I sure think what he and others do is sure a lot better, than just waiting inside of 5 days and puking out whatever a model runs says. Enough on this guys. If you don't like these threads more than 5 days out, don't read them, don't post on them.

This post has been edited by rtcemc: Feb 3 2017, 10:30 AM
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2017, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2017, 10:29 AM) *
PARD, no no no. If someone doesn't like that a thread is more than 5 days out, just don't tune in. Man, look at what JD Renken has done for the weather world by looking out farther into the future. The only way to get better at longer range forecasting is to forecast it. If you notice when posters like UT open a longer range thread, they preface by saying "look this is far out, but this is what could happen", and doesn't just use some model printout. So if you don't your heart broken, don't tune in. I sure think what he and others do is sure a lot better, than just waiting inside of 5 days and puking out whatever a model runs says. Enough on this guys. If you don't like these threads more than 5 days out, don't read them, don't post on them.

A side note to this though, I do agree with having some overall support for a potential storm, INCLUDING more than just one model run, and including more than just what a model does print out. What does the pattern look like, where are the various tele's pointing, etc....
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 3 2017, 10:57 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 3 2017, 09:29 AM) *
On the 0z PARA, wait and see 6z PARA probably loses it as well.

....and it did. The only piece of energy I see Is something sparking up near the Caribbean.
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paletitsnow63
post Feb 3 2017, 10:58 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 3 2017, 09:29 AM) *
On the 0z PARA, wait and see 6z PARA probably loses it as well.

You are correct. 6Z GFS Para loses the storm.
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phillyfan
post Feb 3 2017, 11:00 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 3 2017, 10:57 AM) *
....and it did. The only piece of energy I see Is something sparking up near the Caribbean.

Was just going on what I've noticed the para usually is pretty close to what the operational GFS had for that same run.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 12 / Heat Waves: 3
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 3 2017, 11:00 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2017, 10:29 AM) *
PARD, no no no. If someone doesn't like that a thread is more than 5 days out, just don't tune in. Man, look at what JD Renken has done for the weather world by looking out farther into the future. The only way to get better at longer range forecasting is to forecast it. If you notice when posters like UT open a longer range thread, they preface by saying "look this is far out, but this is what could happen", and doesn't just use some model printout. So if you don't your heart broken, don't tune in. I sure think what he and others do is sure a lot better, than just waiting inside of 5 days and puking out whatever a model runs says. Enough on this guys. If you don't like these threads more than 5 days out, don't read them, don't post on them.

Whoa, easy now. I think we were all speaking as a joke and Not to be taken seriously.
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LUCC
post Feb 3 2017, 11:15 AM
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Right where we want it at this point.


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Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Supertyphoon
post Feb 3 2017, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 2 2017, 09:32 PM) *
laugh.gif yea, I was just blowing smoke up your wishcasting arses anyway tongue.gif


I can stand fumigating every so often


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