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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
27 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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phillyfan

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17 Jul 2017


QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern Pennsylvania...much of New
York...Much of Vermont...western New Hampshire...far western
Massachusetts...and far northwestern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171614Z - 171815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Band of convection are ongoing in northwestern portions of
the discussion area, and a general increase is expected through the
afternoon hours. A WW may be needed later in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An extensive, broken band of convection is gradually
increasing in intensity across northern and central New York State,
with more isolated convection increasing ahead of this band across
the remainder of the discussion area. Northern portions of this
band have begun to forward propagate eastward and should reach
western Vermont within the next hour. These storms are in an
environment characterized by sufficient (30-35 kt) deep shear for
some storm organization along with substantial surface heating
within the pre-convective airmass, fostering moderate instability
(around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE in northeastern New York increasing to
around 3000 J/kg MUCAPE in central Pennsylvania). A fairly
expansive (and increasingly agitated) cumulus field exists
downstream of ongoing convection, and model point forecast soundings
indicate minimal convective inhibition, which should allow for a
continued (diurnally driven) increase in convective coverage and
intensity this afternoon.

Convective trends will be monitored for an evolving
isolated-to-scattered wind damage threat, which may necessitate a
severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.

..Cook/Hart.. 07/17/2017


One warned cell so far:

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC079-131-171730-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0087.170717T1642Z-170717T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1242 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Wyoming County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 130 PM EDT

* At 1241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Shickshinny,
or 10 miles northeast of Berwick, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
Muhlenberg around 1250 PM EDT.
Sweet Valley and Mountain Top around 1255 PM EDT.
Sugar Notch around 105 PM EDT.
Edwardsville around 115 PM EDT.
Luzerne around 120 PM EDT.
Wilkes-Barre and Harveys Lake around 125 PM EDT.
Pittston, Falls and West Wyoming around 130 PM EDT.
11 Jul 2017
Well let's do a general thread for this week I guess. Just for some general t-storms this week it seems like. Just had a quick ground wetter roll through now and a brief dampen the ground one an hour ago.

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

NJZ009-010-012-013-020-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-120800-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Ocean-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts,
heavy rain and hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Heat index values are expected to rise into the middle 90s this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours on Wednesday and Thursday, with the greater risk being on
Thursday. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts,
heavy rain and hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Heat index values are expected to rise into the middle 90s on
Wednesday afternoon and into the upper 90s on Thursday afternoon.
5 Jul 2017
Not really a severe weather threat just a heavy rain localized flooding event coming tomorrow.

HWO:
QUOTE
Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night will be
capable of producing heavy rain, leading to poor drainage flooding.


Thursday is marginal south of the mason dixon line.
30 Jun 2017
Today for those northern folks:
Attached Image


Tomorrow for the rest of us:
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and
isolated large hail will be possible across the Northeast Saturday
afternoon into early evening. Marginally severe storms will be
possible from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the
central Appalachians.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes on Saturday
with southwest mid-level flow across the Northeast. At the surface,
a cold front will advance eastward across the lower Great Lakes and
into the Northeast by Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms will
probably be ongoing along the front during the morning with a marked
increase in convective coverage taking place in the afternoon.
Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in a
corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. As this occurs,
storms should become increasingly organized along the cold front.
Other storms should develop eastward along a warm front moving
through northern New York and New England. Multiple line segments
will be possible across the slight risk area during the afternoon
and early evening.

GFS forecast soundings along the instability axis in the Northeast
at 21Z on Saturday show moderate deep-layer shear profiles with
gradually veering winds with height and about 50 kt of
west-southwesterly flow at upper levels. This will support supercell
development with storms that can remain discrete or with the
stronger cells embedded in a line. Supercells will have potential to
produce isolated large hail. The stronger supercells may have an
isolated tornado threat especially along the warm front in northern
New York and Vermont. The greater threat may be damaging wind gusts
as a line of storms organizes across the Northeast. Damaging wind
gusts will be most likely with bowing structures.

...Southern Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Mississippi
Valley on Saturday as a cold front advances southeastward across the
mid Mississippi Valley and Central Appalachians. Surface heating
ahead of the front along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F
should result in pockets of moderate instability during the
afternoon. Thunderstorms that can develop along the front may have a
marginal wind-damage threat mainly in areas with moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates.

Farther west across the southern Plains, the front is expected to
stall in the Red River Valley where surface dewpoints should be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The GFS and NAM solutions suggest
that a pocket of strong instability will be possible in the Red
River Valley Saturday afternoon. In spite of this, deep-layer shear
profiles should remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe
threat marginal across the Southern Plains with strong wind gusts
and hail the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/30/2017
22 Jun 2017
Well there is a marginal risk for Friday:
Attached Image
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bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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