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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
28 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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Joined: 13-January 08
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Last Seen: 19th April 2018 - 03:39 PM
Local Time: Apr 21 2018, 09:24 AM
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30 Mar 2018
I'll bite the bullet and open this thread up:
12z GFS: ![]() 12z CMC: ![]()
5 Sep 2017
18 Aug 2017
What no thread for today...
QUOTE Flash Flood Watch up for this afternoon:
Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019- PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-181545- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.170818T1800Z-170819T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. O/ New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex- Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwestern, central and northwestern New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, central and southern Delaware and northeastern Maryland. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening * Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through tonight. While flash flooding is not anticipated with the initial round this morning, locally higher rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible, and will help saturate the ground for the next round of storms. Torrential downpours with storms that develop this afternoon and evening could produce rainfall rates greater than 2 inches per hour. While the entire area will not receive heavy rain, isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible where storms track over the same locations. * Torrential rain falling in a short period of time will result in rapidly rising water levels along streams and creeks and in areas of poor drainage. Significant roadway flooding is possible in isolated areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Basement flooding is possible due to heavy rain falling on soils already saturated from previous storms. If your home has a history of basement flooding, monitor your sump pump for proper operation and if possible, direct outside water flow away from your house
11 Aug 2017
25 Jul 2017
Time to open a thread for the Thursday - Friday period.
SPC: QUOTE Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms are forecast to spread across the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region and vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe risk may also evolve across the northern Intermountain region Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... Larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to expand across the eastern U.S. this period, as a short-wave trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes area into the mid and upper Ohio Valley through the period. Meanwhile to the west, ridging will prevail, though a short-wave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest will suppress ridging to some degree as it moves through the northern Intermountain region. At the surface, a cold front will shift southeast across eastern and southern portions of the country through the period, while high pressure prevails across the central and northern portions of the country. ...Mid and upper Ohio Valley east to the mid Atlantic coast... Widespread precipitation is forecast to be ongoing across western and northern portions of the risk area, which -- along with clouds streaming east ahead of the convection -- should hinder diurnal destabilization across a large portion of the risk area. Still, with a belt of strong flow aloft expected to spread east across the region in conjunction with a lead short-wave trough ahead of the main system crossing the Great Lakes, any storms which can form/organize would likely evolve into fast-moving bands, posing a damaging wind risk. Therefore, while uncertainty remains relatively high, will introduce slight risk across a broad zone from the mid and upper Ohio Valley east the mid Atlantic area to cover this potential risk -- which could extend through the evening and into the overnight hours. Lesser risk -- due to weaker shear -- is expected along the trailing cold front as it shifts southeast across the mid South region during the day, aided by greater CAPE. Local severe risk may linger through the evening, spreading south into the Southeast states before weakening overnight. ...Northern Intermountain region... As the weakening upper short-wave trough shifts east-northeast across the area, modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterlies along with ample large-scale ascent will favor afternoon thunderstorm development, as modest CAPE develops through peak diurnal heating. Though modest instability in most areas should limit hail potential, damaging wind gusts -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation -- may occur locally with stronger storms through the evening. ..Goss.. 07/25/2017 Also this HWO from Mount Holly: QUOTE .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
There is a potential for heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday. Areas that were impacted by heavy rainfall earlier this week will be particularly susceptible to another round of flooding. Additionally, a few thunderstorms may become severe. |
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