European Winter 2012/2013 Options

[Slovremeblog]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZoOCe5vnsQ

[GavinPartridge]

Hi, thanks for posting my video.

I've already posted a thread about this in the long range section of the US forum.

Can I just ask peeps that want to watch my NAO forecast to watch it at my website please?

http://www.GavsWeatherVids.com/seasonal.html (you'll find it just underneath my first autumn forecast)

Enjoy the video and if you have any questions please ask.

Cheers

Gavin

This post has been edited by GavinPartridge: Jun 24 2012, 11:06 AM

[Nicos]

Hello,


Any news for what to expect this winter?
It seens a sign of change for this abnormally dry long pattern in eastern europe?

Nicos

[GavinPartridge]

Hi Nicos,

I actually haven't yet done a forecast for winter 2012/2013. I'll do a forecast this month with an update in October and then a final forecast in November. This will be primarily for the United Kingdom, but other parts of Europe will be able to get a rough idea of what may happen as well (for instance, is a cold or mild European winter favoured, etc...)

One thing I would say though, is that the very extreme arctic melt season this summer may be important in terms of favouring northern winter blocking. We also have to see how quickly Siberian snow cover develops this autumn as that can be important as well.

It looks like we're going to have a weak central and west based El Nino (which coupled with a cold PDO) may favour a negative NAO.

The Atlantic in May looked to be favouring a +NAO, but since then the northern blocking that has helped trigger the melt season has also warmed the Atlantic around Greenland (warm AMO) If this continues to winter it may also indicate a -NAO is more likely.

So a lot to keep an eye through the autumn and its too early to call.

This post has been edited by GavinPartridge: Sep 7 2012, 11:46 AM

[Nicos]

Hello Gavin,

Thank you. I have to agree with you for the winter forecast. We have to wait a few weeks.
My biggest concern is the extremely long period of dry weather. For about six months, we have a terrible drought weather and for the next 15-30 days is not announce any changes.

Nicos


Thank you,
Nicos

[GavinPartridge]

Hello Gavin,

Thank you. I have to agree with you for the winter forecast. We have to wait a few weeks.
My biggest concern is the extremely long period of dry weather. For about six months, we have a terrible drought weather and for the next 15-30 days is not announce any changes.

Nicos
Thank you,
Nicos

Yes, it has been a very unusual summer pattern with the west stuck under a near stationary trough while the east has been under a persistent ridge.

I think in recent years the jet stream has become much more meridional and weaker meaning many parts of europe have had extended periods of more extreme weather - In summer that can mean hot and dry or cool and wet. In winter that can mean warm and wet or severely cold and dry or snowy.

My hunch is that the cause of this increase in meridionality is partly down to the reductions in solar activity and arctic sea ice - It seems to me that if you warm the arctic the decreased temperature differance between the tropics and the pole should mean a weaker northern jet, hence reduced zonality and more periods of a meridional northern arm. That in turn leads to these prolonged periods of more extreme and unusual weather patterns.

I can only see these extreme periods becoming more frequent over the next few years as solar activity weakens further (theres some speculation that solar cycle 25 may resemble a Maunder minimum type cycle) and the arctic continues to thaw out. And thats without the overlying trend of climate change...

This post has been edited by GavinPartridge: Sep 8 2012, 04:58 AM

[Stefanos Chrysoc...]

Hello GavinPartridge..do you know when will the european winter forecast for 2012-2013 will be anounced by accuweather officialy in their site? :/

[Nicos]

Hello GavinPartridge..do you know when will the european winter forecast for 2012-2013 will be anounced by accuweather officialy in their site? :/

Hello,

I think at the and of October.

Nicos

[Stefanos Chrysoc...]

Ok thanks

[GavinPartridge]

Hi all

Here's my first UK model based seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html

Created on 21st September 2012 this video uses seasonal, global numerical models from the UK Met Office, JAMSTEC, the Beijing Climate Center and CFS/NOAA to predict the possible weather in the United Kingdom for the coming winter.

As expected so far away the models create a mixed picture, with the UK Met Office model looking very cold, while many of the other models look nearer normal.

More updates will follow in October and November

This post has been edited by GavinPartridge: Sep 23 2012, 08:39 AM

[tml78]

any chance of indian summer for the Baltic countries? or is that it for the 20+ days??

[tml78]

anyone??

[Nicos]

Hello,

What about this long silence?
Nobody to share info about winter that is about to come?
It's October12th.

Nicos

[Stefanos Chrysoc...]

I personally wait for accuweathers winter prediction...im very currius...

[Carlos Dias]

Las Lenas Argentina. The snow is gone this vlia located 2.240 meters altitude



www.meteoclima.com.br

This post has been edited by Carlos Dias: Oct 16 2012, 06:23 AM

[Nicos]

Hello,


To open the discussion here..:
So..everybody goes to frigid november followed by mild winter for eastern europe?

Nicos

[Nicos]

Hello,

Some good news? Trend is changing?

Temp on 18/27 September:





Temp on 28Sept/07 Oct:






Nicos

[Nicos]

Hello,

And here latest...

Temp on 08/17 Oct:





Precipitation neutral...to dry.





NICOS

[kristig]

For those who understand italian : http://meteopb.it/index.php?option=com_con...&Itemid=119

[tml78]

Hey guys.. when can we expect the first snow fall for Poland & the Baltic States?