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> April 12-14 Plains/MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Moderate Risk: Forecasts and OBS
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2018, 04:20 PM
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Confirmed tornado in North Carolina. Debris signature seen 12,000 feet above ground.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 15 2018, 06:11 PM
Post #102




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First time poster checking in. Under my first TOR warning of the season. Summit, Stark, and Portage counties in NE Ohio. I did not expect to get anything out of this system, although the HRRR has been pretty solid on selling this line coming through with the low for a day now. Looks like spin-ups at worst, but perhaps a harbinger of a more interesting season than the past several around here!

Radar at around the time of issuance. Crappy NEXRAD quality but you can see the notches.
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 15 2018, 06:26 PM
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And it looks like it may have produced...

https://twitter.com/stormchaser4850/status/...658189281718273
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Juniorrr
post Apr 15 2018, 06:26 PM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 15 2018, 07:11 PM) *
First time poster checking in. Under my first TOR warning of the season. Summit, Stark, and Portage counties in NE Ohio. I did not expect to get anything out of this system, although the HRRR has been pretty solid on selling this line coming through with the low for a day now. Looks like spin-ups at worst, but perhaps a harbinger of a more interesting season than the past several around here!

Radar at around the time of issuance. Crappy NEXRAD quality but you can see the notches.

Welcome, that line had some impressive notches, I counted almost 6 or 7 earlier. blink.gif
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 15 2018, 07:28 PM
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Thanks! Better shot here. Also, reports of damage in Twinsburg now. Looking like two possible touchdowns in an area that was in general t'storm risk today. Courtesy of https://twitter.com/NashWX/status/985650080471506944

This post has been edited by FireworkWX03: Apr 15 2018, 07:28 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2018, 07:31 PM
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That was an insane squall/broken line. I dont remember the last time Ive seen so many circulations in such close proximity.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 16 2018, 03:57 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 15 2018, 08:31 PM) *
That was an insane squall/broken line. I dont remember the last time Ive seen so many circulations in such close proximity.


Aside from the May '85s and Palm Sundays, these LEWPs are generally how we get tornadoes around here I guess. Although the high number of circulations is very weird. Very much reminds me of years past. I literally looked at the radar about 10 minutes prior and wrote it off -- no lightning, weak presentation, nothing. Then it exploded. Interesting that fall 2017 and so far our very very early 2018 have gotten Northeast Ohio back to a more active 1981-2010 type pattern after 10 years of almost nothing. A plethora of F-0s and F-1s, even four whole F-2s for NWS CLE back in the fall (although they failed to warn one of them)! Pattern shift or just random?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 16 2018, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 16 2018, 04:57 AM) *
Aside from the May '85s and Palm Sundays, these LEWPs are generally how we get tornadoes around here I guess. Although the high number of circulations is very weird. Very much reminds me of years past. I literally looked at the radar about 10 minutes prior and wrote it off -- no lightning, weak presentation, nothing. Then it exploded. Interesting that fall 2017 and so far our very very early 2018 have gotten Northeast Ohio back to a more active 1981-2010 type pattern after 10 years of almost nothing. A plethora of F-0s and F-1s, even four whole F-2s for NWS CLE back in the fall (although they failed to warn one of them)! Pattern shift or just random?

That's always been a question I've had about tornado activity in the OV. In the 20th century, especially the latter half, we had a good deal of EF4+ tornadoes. I did the math on it before, I think we were averaging a violent tornado every 2 or 3 years in the lower OV. We've had some violent tornadoes so far this century but it's been more than 1 every 2 or 3 years.

Maybe that just means we're due for a big one soon (law of averages) or we were just in a multi-decadal period that pushed tornado activity east. If you look at the mean pattern of 10-20 years and compare different decades, you'll see distinct pattern differences.

So I'm leaning toward the idea that it was just a part of a multi-decadal oscillation. We would be on track with repeating that 20th century pattern, but with climate change, who knows if we'll see something like that again... or if we'll see that happen more often.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 17 2018, 03:00 AM
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I have heard of the "cooling zone" induced by climate change in the eastern US, and wondered if that might significantly alter our ability to get significant severe in the OV. This gets beyond my knowledge base a bit, and you guys know a whole lot more about it and other large-scale factors... but I'm skeptical climate change has permanently altered our ability to get significant severe going forward. With the most detailed global temperature/pattern data only going back to 1979 (although I know there is much from before then and even more can be extrapolated) we just don't know enough yet. Better to assume for now that what came before is possible and indeed likely. So I also lean towards the "old" pattern returning eventually. Whether it already has or will sometime in the future, again, no way to tell. But from my very amateurish perspective I have noticed that the biggest issue for Ohio as a whole (unfavorable timing of the systems) seems to be abating compared to the past decade plus.

CLE confirmed an EF-1 in Coventry Twp. Twinsburg was a downburst.
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ColoradoChinook
post Apr 17 2018, 10:39 AM
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QUOTE(MichelleOH @ Apr 10 2018, 04:27 PM) *
They are mentioning this system on the local news, but I don't see much here from you guys for Ohio. Am I missing something?


The answer was yes. There was a tornado in Ohio near my brother!! He is in the Canton area, and the tornado was listed as being south of Akron.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 17 2018, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 15 2018, 08:28 PM) *
Thanks! Better shot here. Also, reports of damage in Twinsburg now. Looking like two possible touchdowns in an area that was in general t'storm risk today. Courtesy of https://twitter.com/NashWX/status/985650080471506944


Wow great shot! saving that one.

As for the whole climate change thing I feel it would get a little off subject in here but considering how it goes over my way in PA I feel you guys would tend to do better in that department of severe given a better NW flow pattern as well as setting up that temp boundary enhancing potential.

It is crazy we hardly ever get any big storms anymore we get a few random bouts here and there as climo would have it but more often then not it happens from about DCA on south or they get hefty wind threats that can cause a quick spin-up in upstate NY and Northern New England.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2018, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 17 2018, 03:31 PM) *
Wow great shot! saving that one.

As for the whole climate change thing I feel it would get a little off subject in here but considering how it goes over my way in PA I feel you guys would tend to do better in that department of severe given a better NW flow pattern as well as setting up that temp boundary enhancing potential.

It is crazy we hardly ever get any big storms anymore we get a few random bouts here and there as climo would have it but more often then not it happens from about DCA on south or they get hefty wind threats that can cause a quick spin-up in upstate NY and Northern New England.

Yeah I hesitate to get too much into it because getting into a debate about climate change is one of the things I'd least like to do (this applies to both sides), so I'll just stick to hypotheticals. If the climate is warming, especially the Arctic, then we should see the jet stream weaken due to a lesser gradient between the Poles and the equator. Weaker jet stream means less shear, obviously, but also means a more meridional jet stream. So that could be a positive next to a negative. Another positive is instability should trend upward. However, you need a nice balance of instability and shear to get significant tornadoes, so that might be a negative depending on how significant these changes are.

Another possibility is that all the tornado alleys/tornado hotspots (of course we have the traditional tornado alley, but also have smaller ones such as Dixie Alley, Hoosier Alley, and Carolina Alley... in order of most relevant) could simply shift north. For example, winter time severe weather events have historically favored the southern US, but perhaps in the future we'll see this either expand north or shift north.

But I don't think there's a single person out there that claims they know what'll happen to tornado activity going forward. Right now we have the problem of limited tornado data; not only do the records largely only go back to 1950, and there's been a fake trend toward more tornado activity until the 2000's that's just a consequence of the development of the field.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 17 2018, 03:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2018, 07:42 PM
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Up to 84 tornado reports now, with 47 of them being on the 13th. I think they're done with surveying the event on the 13th, but I don't know about the 14th and 15th. 7 wind reports still have "possible tornado" wording on the 14th, and 8 on the 15th.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 17 2018, 07:43 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 18 2018, 05:53 AM
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CLE initially rated the EF-1 Coventry Twp. tornado as a downburst until the manager of the Acme grocery store sent over surveillance tapes that clearly showed not only the tornado, but also very strong inflow headed in the opposite direction ~15 seconds earlier. I'm therefore somewhat skeptical Twinsburg wasn't also a tornado. That was the most impressive couplet by far on radar.

I don't mean to pick on CLE, but given that they didn't even warn an EF-2 last fall that was plainly visible on readily available Weather Underground radar, are they a little out of practice? Sometimes their severe AFDs say little more than "it might storm."
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 18 2018, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 17 2018, 04:11 PM) *
Yeah I hesitate to get too much into it because getting into a debate about climate change is one of the things I'd least like to do (this applies to both sides), so I'll just stick to hypotheticals. If the climate is warming, especially the Arctic, then we should see the jet stream weaken due to a lesser gradient between the Poles and the equator. Weaker jet stream means less shear, obviously, but also means a more meridional jet stream. So that could be a positive next to a negative. Another positive is instability should trend upward. However, you need a nice balance of instability and shear to get significant tornadoes, so that might be a negative depending on how significant these changes are.

Another possibility is that all the tornado alleys/tornado hotspots (of course we have the traditional tornado alley, but also have smaller ones such as Dixie Alley, Hoosier Alley, and Carolina Alley... in order of most relevant) could simply shift north. For example, winter time severe weather events have historically favored the southern US, but perhaps in the future we'll see this either expand north or shift north.

But I don't think there's a single person out there that claims they know what'll happen to tornado activity going forward. Right now we have the problem of limited tornado data; not only do the records largely only go back to 1950, and there's been a fake trend toward more tornado activity until the 2000's that's just a consequence of the development of the field.



Its a tough topic to fully grasp because things are not always going as predicted. But would be interesting to see if there is such things as cycles that occur with this to give us the average we tend to see thats quite a bit of work.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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jdrenken
post Apr 25 2018, 07:08 AM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 15 2018, 06:11 PM) *
First time poster checking in. Under my first TOR warning of the season. Summit, Stark, and Portage counties in NE Ohio. I did not expect to get anything out of this system, although the HRRR has been pretty solid on selling this line coming through with the low for a day now. Looks like spin-ups at worst, but perhaps a harbinger of a more interesting season than the past several around here!

Radar at around the time of issuance. Crappy NEXRAD quality but you can see the notches.


Welcome to the forum! Looking forward to your contributions! Great group of guys here in the severe threads to learn from.


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post Apr 25 2018, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 17 2018, 04:11 PM) *
Yeah I hesitate to get too much into it because getting into a debate about climate change is one of the things I'd least like to do (this applies to both sides), so I'll just stick to hypotheticals. If the climate is warming, especially the Arctic, then we should see the jet stream weaken due to a lesser gradient between the Poles and the equator. Weaker jet stream means less shear, obviously, but also means a more meridional jet stream. So that could be a positive next to a negative. Another positive is instability should trend upward. However, you need a nice balance of instability and shear to get significant tornadoes, so that might be a negative depending on how significant these changes are.

Another possibility is that all the tornado alleys/tornado hotspots (of course we have the traditional tornado alley, but also have smaller ones such as Dixie Alley, Hoosier Alley, and Carolina Alley... in order of most relevant) could simply shift north. For example, winter time severe weather events have historically favored the southern US, but perhaps in the future we'll see this either expand north or shift north.

But I don't think there's a single person out there that claims they know what'll happen to tornado activity going forward. Right now we have the problem of limited tornado data; not only do the records largely only go back to 1950, and there's been a fake trend toward more tornado activity until the 2000's that's just a consequence of the development of the field.

Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get. If the climate has changed then we won't get the weather we expect as often. Thus, when I think about climate change and tornadoes I think that changes in seasonality are more important than changes in frequency or magnitude of tornado outbreaks.

For example, maybe winter tornadoes will become more common across a broader region and perhaps they will be stronger as well. This is dangerous given humans aren't expecting tornadoes in the winter. However, the annual tornado total may remain steady or could possibly decrease, because the ingredients aren't coming together as often during the severe thunderstorm season when climatology indicates the greatest threat.

Also, I believe maximum tornado intensity is increasing (e.g. El Reno) since there's more potential energy in a warmer climate. However, the ingredients needed to achieve maximum tornado intensity may be becoming less common. Therefore, it is difficult to assess whether the overall threat associated with tornadoes increases or decreases with climate change, but aspects of the tornado threat will change and this will reduce the predictability of and thus preparedness for future tornado outbreaks.


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