Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

2 Pages V   1 2 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> April 25-27th MidAtl/NE Storm, Short Range [0-3 Days Out] forecasts and discos
MaineJay
post Apr 21 2018, 05:14 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,142
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Looks like a prolonged event involving a slow moving long wave, with several shortwaves occasionally energizing it. The blocking continues, and even puts me in the "warm" sector largely. tongue.gif the downside is the rain.

I have no delusions about the ire I may incur. smile.gif enjoy.


WPC extended
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

VALID 12Z TUE APR 24 2018 - 12Z SAT APR 28 2018

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

TROUGHING WILL BE REINFORCED IN THE EASTERN THIRD/HALF OF THE
LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WEST HOLDS AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CANADA BUT SEEM TO BE
HONING IN ON A BETTER CONSENSUS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN IT MAY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CA/OR
BORDER. A BLEND OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE OFFERED A GOOD STARTING
POINT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF A FEW OF THE
EASTERN SYSTEMS IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. COULD NOT
NECESSARILY RULE ANY ONE RUN OUT GIVEN THE MULTI-DAY SHUFFLINGS.


...WEATHER/THREATS HIGHLIGHTS...

EXITING LEAD UPPER/SFC LOW WILL SPREAD MODEST RAINS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW RIDES UP I-95 INTO MAINE ON THURSDAY.
TRAILING SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR MAYBE SOME WET SNOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WEAKER SHORTWAVES SLIP SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINE.


IN THE WEST, UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (+10 TO +20F ABOVE CLIMO) WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFFSHORE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND (OR AT LEAST
LATE FRIDAY) WITH THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MOSTLY INTO COASTAL
OREGON BUT ALSO INTO THE SIERRAS AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
COME ASHORE.

ASSOCIATED WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS...SURFACE
SYSTEMS...WEATHER GRIDS...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
(QPF)...AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK SNOW/SLEET PROBABILITIES CAN BE
FOUND AT...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/..._medr.php?day=4


FRACASSO

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model guidance remains consistent with ridging to the N of upper
low/trof forecast to slowly churn across the Srn CONUS thru
early next week. The gradual warm up will continue into early
next week...with some readings in the 60s likely Mon and Tue.
Multi-model consensus is a little on the cool side...mainly
because the recent colder than normal wx is dragging the bias
correction away from warm temps. I have added a little more MOS
guidance to the blend to try and offset that effect thru Tue.

By late Tue thru Wed model guidance brings in the next round of
precip. That slow moving upper low lift NEwd...and with PWAT
values forecast to be above normal for this time of year we
should see a pretty widespread rainfall. While it will not be a
warm rain...it will be mild enough for mainly rain except for
the highest elevations of the forecast area
. The combination of
gradual snow melt in the milder temps plus rainfall will allow
river flows to increase thru next week. Looking at ensemble flow
guidance...that is enough to push a handful of headwater gauge
locations above flood stage late in the week. So it will be
something to keep an eye on.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


ECMWF

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...42100&fh=96

UKie

Attached Image


Attached Image

Attached Image


http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=144

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 24 2018, 04:38 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Apr 23 2018, 09:31 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,257
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





GFS has it but moisture starved, no complaining here, about the mason dixon line.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Apr 23 2018, 09:50 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,571
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





Now that we’re starting to see some green, won’t mind some rain...especially after this glorious 4 day stretch. Finally going to see 60 today. First time since President’s week, although we hit 76 then, so still a far cry from that type of warmth.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
geeter1
post Apr 23 2018, 10:00 AM
Post #4




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 365
Joined: 7-November 09
From: Orefield, PA
Member No.: 19,681







61F here already.

Going to plant grass seed tomorrow. Just in time for Tuesday & Wednesday's Rain. rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Apr 23 2018, 11:01 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,257
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





Well 12z GFS a bit more robust with precip, going to change a bit no difference now compared to winter.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Apr 24 2018, 04:43 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,142
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 23 2018, 10:50 AM) *
Now that we’re starting to see some green, won’t mind some rain...especially after this glorious 4 day stretch. Finally going to see 60 today. First time since President’s week, although we hit 76 then, so still a far cry from that type of warmth.



Hit 66.5° IMBY yesterday, maybe 70° today. We could use the rain here, definitely dry, and with no green up, for danger is certainly elevated.

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Once again with models forecasting mixed layer growth to H8...I
expect we should do a little better than that. Mixing down
temps of +5 to +7 means we will make another run at 70...and
should see those readings a little more common today. Increasing
southerly flow will mean that near the Seacoast and deeper into
Midcoast ME and the Capital Region will see high temps early in
the day before colder marine air works inland. I used a blend
of higher res guidance to show this afternoon trend.

The other concern for this afternoon is fire danger. Temps will
be warm again...and with dewpoints not increasing much it should
mean another day with minimum RH values in the teens. Winds do
increase slightly today as well...with return flow around 15 mph
at times. So fire danger will be elevated...but not quite enough
for a headline.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight will see return flow continue and increasing
clouds...so readings will be milder than the past few nights. I
expect the bulk of the precip to hold off until around 8 AM
Wed...as it moves in from the SW. With PWAT values some 2
standard deviations above normal...and a modest SEly
LLJ...precip should be widespread and moderate to heavy at
times. The good news is that it will be fairly progressive...and
moving out late in the day
. With precip ongoing for much of the
day...high temps will be back on the cool side again. Highs
should struggle into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low currently over the Tennessee Valley will slowly make
its way toward the East Coast and be pulled northward toward
New England on Wednesday in response to a northern stream
trough. This will be our biggest precipitation maker of the
forecast. While this low does pull northeast into the Canadian
Atlantic, more troughs drop in through the central United
States, carving out a broader trough which will be with us into
the first part of next week, while also opening up the door to
some colder air from the Arctic dropping down into our area this
weekend.

Low pressure moves through the area Wednesday night, with
heavier rain falling ahead of the low in an onshore flow with a
tropical connection
. Could see some widespread fog as well as
the moist air mass moves over the cold Gulf of Maine and
condenses over northern New England. The band of persistent rain
should shift east into eastern Maine Thursday morning, while the
cold upper low moves in from the west, bringing more scattered
showers with some terrain enhancement.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
geeter1
post Apr 24 2018, 07:23 AM
Post #7




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 365
Joined: 7-November 09
From: Orefield, PA
Member No.: 19,681







The first batch of rain missed us, and headed to the north and west.
Hopefully we get in on the rain later this evening. Starting to dry up
in my area.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Apr 24 2018, 11:56 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,142
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





71.4° cool.gif with a dew point of 19.7°

That's 40 degrees warmer than this morning.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 24 2018, 12:08 PM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Apr 25 2018, 07:37 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Bit of a dud so far here in W CT. Only .2" of rain. Radar looks to be weak, breaking up. HRRR is way overdone on the convection, though I suppose it could fire up again. And it has the rain mostly out of here by 2.
Attached Image

Attached Image



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
longislander
post Apr 25 2018, 09:16 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,199
Joined: 24-August 11
Member No.: 25,937





They were talking about 1-2" of rain from this - not even close so far, a damp mist at best.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
geeter1
post Apr 25 2018, 01:32 PM
Post #11




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 365
Joined: 7-November 09
From: Orefield, PA
Member No.: 19,681






Ended up with 1.25 inches here.

Sun is trying to come out of the clouds....
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Apr 25 2018, 04:05 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Looks like I'm topping off at .54".


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
yamvmax
post Apr 25 2018, 06:07 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 906
Joined: 9-March 14
From: Stony Brook NY
Member No.: 29,368





QUOTE(longislander @ Apr 25 2018, 09:16 AM) *
They were talking about 1-2" of rain from this - not even close so far, a damp mist at best.

1.2 inches up on the North shore.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Apr 27 2018, 12:31 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,623
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





Not the original storm as posted in thread but the date matches todays rain and it was a good soaking, about 0.80 in the bucket. The wetness of past months has given the lawn and plants a great start, lush and dark green. Just need some extended warmth to be able to enjoy the garden and start planting some vegetables. Hopefully next week is the start of a good run of real warmth.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Miller A
post Apr 27 2018, 01:49 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,547
Joined: 5-December 08
From: Sussex, NJ
Member No.: 16,359





Killin' it with a 0.09" total.
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Apr 27 2018, 02:46 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





.12" from today's"Storm"


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2018, 07:32 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





I know its not the thread but there is still another vort to come through today might spark off some showers and storms across much of PA, northern MD and southern NY. Nothing severe but in the stronger of the activity, what looks to be a line of storms, may drop some hail with some pretty decent cold air aloft and surface going adiabatic. Maybe a wind report out there as well.

Most of the energy will be focused into upstate and central NY with limited instability up there but thermal differences and a front crossing the area should be enough to allow for some decent towers.

Most likely timing to be around 3-5pm for most regions and then quickly dieing off the further east you get

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Apr 28 2018, 07:35 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2018, 10:56 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Have some nice CU forming off to the west already. Completely clear skies overall temps 68/56

To go off of SPC temps at the surface around 20C area wide while at 500mb ~18,000 feet above the surface temps are sitting around -21C and cooling quite a change. Jet over top weak but enough to maybe allow some discrete cells to hold. Not much in the way of drying aloft so maybe not as much a wind aspect with this but hail in the stronger should pop up here and there.

Think we top out at about 73/74 temps cant really go up all too much higher but being adiabatic up to about 750mb is pretty uncommon around here. If only we had a little better moisture return and a slightly stronger piece of energy.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2018, 04:03 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





First TS of the year, I think, heavy rain winds 30-40mph decent thunder and some lightning drops were fairly large suggesting some places may have dealt with some hail.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherDudeNYC
post Apr 28 2018, 06:14 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,187
Joined: 13-January 10
From: Bronx,NY
Member No.: 20,929





Incoming? Looks like a good storm.

Attached Image

Edit: Nice skies.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Apr 28 2018, 06:42 PM


--------------------
There is no such thing as boring weather.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

2 Pages V   1 2 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 16th August 2018 - 05:13 PM