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> April 29-May 5 Plains/Midwest/OV/GL Tornado Outbreak, Long-range (6-10 days): forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 24 2018, 12:38 PM
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Although SPC opted not to delineate a severe weather area due to large spread, I'm certain they recognize they'll be issuing some enhanced risks to start off May.

When you have a large warm sector with rich moisture and a western trough near the peak of tornado season, you're gonna have severe weather. Currently favoring the Plains, but wouldn't rule out the idea that GFS may be missing a OV/GL severe threat.

GFS has a significant severe threat on May 2 as a shortwave breaks off the western trough and takes a negative tilt into the heart of tornado alley. VBV is an issue on this run though







Last nights Euro has a bit of a different solution, this would likely be a 3+ day tornado outbreak... from the Plains to Arkansas and the Ohio/Mississippi valleys, then the cold front stalls out near the MO/AR border. Lee cyclogenesis begins and the warm front lifts north with even richer moisture than last time.



After the severe threat for the first 3 days of May, watch for the pattern to reload as is suggested by BSR. That will be my next post here

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 1 2018, 06:13 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 24 2018, 12:40 PM
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May 2:



May 5:


BSR may be suggesting that the May 1-3 severe threat may be focused on the Plains, the May 4-6 severe threat may be focused on the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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idecline
post Apr 24 2018, 06:31 PM
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...because idee works 'in the industry'...he is always interested in the first Saturday in May...and the weather

...and this year is no exception as The Kentucky Derby 144th Edition is on May 5, 2018...

rolleyes.gif so many will be keeping an eye on the weather in the Louisville, KY for the days of May 4th and 5th..so a quick edit from the Louisville Courier/Journal

QUOTE
It doesn't matter how far away we are from the 2018 Kentucky Derby – it’s never too early to start keeping an eye on the weather for the first Saturday in May.

The forecast is probably the single most important factor behind a good Kentucky Derby. It affects everything from track conditions, where wet weather can lead to a sloppy afternoon, to the infield, where wet weather can lead to a completely different kind of sloppy afternoon. You're going to want to keep a close eye on the forecast as we get closer to the big weekend.

Luckily, we've got you covered this year. Head to our new website, willitrainonderbyday.com, any time between now and May 5 for an updated Louisville forecast Saturday of the race.

It's pretty simple – we're asking "Will it rain on Derby day?" so the big word that pops up is your answer to that million-dollar question, with a complete forecast just below. The site pulls numbers from AccuWeather every 30 minutes to determine the current projections in Louisville on Oaks Friday and Derby Saturday and lists the likelihood of rain as of that particular moment.
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/enter...-day/527815002/

Here is a view of the "highly informational" website... laugh.gif

QUOTE
Unlikely


It’s probably not going to rain, but the forecast is as accurate as your Derby bet
Kentucky Derby forecast: Considerable clouds, 5% chance of precipitation, high of 70
Kentucky Oaks forecast: Cloudy and remaining warm, 25% chance of precipitation, high of 80
Updated: 4/24/18 7:01 pm EDT


...so all in all this wil be a very important week of weather for many...especially Horseracing owners, Trainers and of course, fans...

Warning: no wagering on the weather at the Kentucky Oaks (May 4th) or the Kentucky Derby (May 5th) shall be allowed, nor shall wagering (or associated activities) be conducted on actual races on any date on the AccuWeather forums... huh.gif

It is up to "Cliche" to give us clues to the race day forecast... wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Apr 24 2018, 06:35 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 24 2018, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 24 2018, 07:31 PM) *
Warning: no wagering on the weather at the Kentucky Oaks (May 4th) or the Kentucky Derby (May 5th), nor shall wagering (or associated activities) be conducted on actual races on the AccuWeather forums... huh.gif

laugh.gif

What a weekend to have such a famous event to happen in this part of the country. I guess it could be worse.

Hopefully you didn't write that article because I disagree with that "rain unlikely" call. It's silly they even included that in there 1.5 weeks in advance in the first place, but I also disagree with rain being unlikely. The pattern for the first week of May is shaping up to be a very volatile and probably wet pattern.

Shamefully, I forgot about the Derby (goes to show how removed I've been from Cincy). We saw the models change toward what BSR was suggesting with a trough in the first few days of the month... so I don't doubt that the models will converge on another system following it. For Derby sake, definitely worried about rain being an issue.

Either it's going to rain or it's going to be humid and cloudy.

Actually, that sounds like any given day in May.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 24 2018, 07:04 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 25 2018, 12:15 AM
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Solid trough. Certainly good for a couple severe events.







--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ingyball
post Apr 25 2018, 12:39 AM
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I get back to Dallas early Thursday afternoon, I might get to catch something if the 0z GFS run is right about the storm arriving later. I just hope the 18z run doesn't occur lol.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 25 2018, 02:16 PM
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ripe



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 26 2018, 09:58 AM
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Days 6 and 7 delineated

Attached Image


Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models have trended toward better agreement regarding evolution of
overall synoptic-scale pattern through day 7. A large-scale trough
over the western states will continue to evolve days 4-5. Return of
more substantial moisture through the Plains should occur later day
5 (Monday) into day 6 as winds over the western Gulf veer to
southerly in wake of a large area of continental-polar high
pressure. Model consensus is that by day 6 (Tuesday) the western
trough will have taken on a positive tilt, while a series of
vorticity maxima eject northeast through the broad fetch of
southwesterly flow established over the plains. Plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates will advect into the central and southern
Plains above the moistening boundary layer contributing to moderate
to potentially strong instability, but also capping issues along the
dryline due to the warm elevated mixed layer. Greatest confidence in
storm initiation day 6 will be from triple point across north
central KS northeast along cold front into the upper MS Valley
region. However, isolated severe storms will be possible farther
south along dryline. By day 7 consensus is that a more substantial
shortwave trough will rotate through base of the synoptic trough and
into the southern and central Plains, suggesting a greater coverage
of severe storms along dryline.

..Dial.. 04/26/2018
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE
MONDAY 4/30
Isolated severe thunderstorms by evening in east SD, extreme southwest MN, east half NE, extreme west IA, central KS, west OK except panhandle, east TX panhandle. TORCON - 3 except 2 to 3 southwest MN. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in southwest TX. TORCON - 2 or less. The severe threat may spread overnight across south MN, west half IA, northwest MO, northeast KS. TORCON - 2

Conditions are still relatively dry, and some regions have an initial cap. But the approach of an upper trough toward the Northern and Central Plains should allow for patches of severe thunderstorms to form by evening and continue in some places overnight. A strong low-level jet develops during the evening, bringing the threat of damaging gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Relatively high cloud bases and a cap may hold down the tornado threat.




QUOTE
TUESDAY 5/1
Scattered severe thunderstorms in WI except southeast, southeast MN, extreme northwest IL, east, central and southwest IA, north and west MO, southeast NE, east half KS, northeast, central and southwest OK. TORCON- 3 to 4 OK; 3 rest of area except 2-3 in southeast NE.

A trough of surface low pressure has enough moisture ahead of it for scattered severe thunderstorms despite some cap still over the area. If a wave of low pressure develops in the TX panhandle, as predicted by the GFS, it would increase the tornado threat in OK above that of the rest of the threat area. One upper-air trough may have moved toward the Northern Plains, while the next one may still be too far west to influence TX where the low-level winds are also light.
A moderate low-level jet over the rest of the region brings a threat for damaging gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 12:23 PM
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12z GFS looks solid

As Dr. Forbes said, the soundings look pretty dry on Monday. LCL in the southern part of the risk area is at the high-end of being favorable for tornadoes. Other than that, very favorable directional, speed shear, and CAPE. No signs of anything that could ruin the event like a cap or VBV.



Give moisture return another 24 hours and it looks even nastier.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 26 2018, 12:25 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 01:46 PM
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Euro has a nasty 3 day outbreak. I would say it would be a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma on Tuesday, then a greater tornado threat up in Kansas on Wednesday because instability and directional and speed shear are quite a bit stronger in addition to being by the low and triple point.









--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 01:50 PM
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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That triple point... wow!!



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 02:34 PM
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Accuweather has gone as far to say this is likely going to be the largest outbreak so far this year. Pretty bold statement granted the largest single day outbreak this year was 4/3 with 610 severe reports, and the largest outbreak sequence was 4/13-15 with nearly 1000.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...of-may/70004788

Not sure if I agree or disagree about that statement... I think right now I just feel it's too early to say that. I'm sure this system will be more impactful but likely for a smaller region.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 26 2018, 02:39 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 04:20 PM
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





USTornadoes.com will make their first forecast of the year on Monday. This is a month later than last year's first forecast.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 26 2018, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 26 2018, 03:34 PM) *
Accuweather has gone as far to say this is likely going to be the largest outbreak so far this year. Pretty bold statement granted the largest single day outbreak this year was 4/3 with 610 severe reports, and the largest outbreak sequence was 4/13-15 with nearly 1000.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...of-may/70004788

Not sure if I agree or disagree about that statement... I think right now I just feel it's too early to say that. I'm sure this system will be more impactful but likely for a smaller region.

I don't think it's a particularly bold statement. We're likely to see the highest CAPE values of the season thus far and shear values are more than adequate for severe thunderstorms across most of the warm sector.

In this particular situation I feel that 610 reports in 1 day is going to be more challenging to match than 1000 in 3 days, but we'll see.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 26 2018, 05:15 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 26 2018, 06:00 PM) *
I don't think it's a particularly bold statement. We're likely to see the highest CAPE values of the season thus far and shear values are more than adequate for severe thunderstorms across most of the warm sector.

In this particular situation I feel that 610 reports in 1 day is going to be more challenging to match than 1000 in 3 days, but we'll see.

The potential is absolutely there for this to be the most intense outbreak of the year, but the thing that keeps me from thinking it's going to be the largest in terms of severe reports is the small spatial scale compared to 4/3 and 4/13-15. Another thing that helped make those events such big ones were the squalls. It's a lot easier to get widespread severe reports from squalls than it is supercells. This event doesn't strike me as a quick linear transition, but I'd imagine it'll happen eventually after a few hours. But that usually happens as instability is decreasing, so it's kinda hit-or-miss.

So we'll see. Potential's there, but too early to say either way.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 26 2018, 05:22 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 27 2018, 12:23 AM
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Another amazing run from GFS.

Monday is drier than you'd like to see. Greatest tornado potential is in the central/southern Plains, though moisture is a limit factor. There's something close to an inverted V profile, so perhaps damaging winds will be the primary threat, hail second, tornadoes third.


Sounding in the Oklahoma panhandle. Dry, but could still pull off a couple tornadoes.


Up in Nebraska, moisture's no better and there's VBV.


Moisture catches up to make Tuesday the main event. Great setup for Plains tornadoes.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 27 2018, 12:24 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 27 2018, 05:59 AM
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Day 6 enhanced, impressive

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A leading shortwave trough will move from CO/NM into the central
Plains during the day on Monday/D4, then toward the upper MS Valley
overnight as it loses amplitude. Low pressure will deepen over
northeast CO, and will translate northeastward along a front into
central SD and western MN. Southerly winds will transport moisture
northward across the Plains, with dewpoints largely in the mid to
upper 50s F from KS into MN. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary dryline
will exist across western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle during
the day with dewpoints approaching 60 F. The most likely area for
concentrated storms will be from NE into SD near the low track and
supported by a strong low-level jet during the evening. However,
isolated severe storms, including supercells, are anticipated near
the dryline as strong heating will occur with at least a narrow zone
of uncapped air. Given wind profiles strongly supportive of
supercells, a conditional 15% severe probability is warranted
despite uncertainty/coverage.

On Tuesday/D5, heights will rise across the central Plains as a
larger-scale upper trough amplifies across the Southwest, and in the
wake of the departing upper MS Valley wave. A few severe storms
cannot be ruled out across MN into WI, but instability will be
marginal. Southerly winds will continue across the Plains, featuring
a more robust moisture return with mid 60s F dewpoints into OK and
then KS late, and uppers 60s to near 70 F into central TX. Even
through instability will be greater, the area will be in between
waves, which typically results in very isolated daytime activity,
and a greater degree of nocturnal storms associated with warm
advection. The area from northern KS into southern NE, southwest IA,
and northwest MO appears to have the greatest threat of
evening/overnight storms, and instability may be strong enough for a
few daytime cells, and/or an MCS.

On Wednesday/D6, the severe threat should be more widespread as the
main upper trough moves into the Plains. Low-level moisture will be
firmly established with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints east of a
dryline extending from western KS into northwest TX by late
afternoon, with a warm front/outflow somewhere across northern KS or
southern NE. Early day storms will likely play a role in the severe
setup, both in terms of air mass quality for northern areas, and
possible outflow boundaries. Models do hint at storms forming
relatively early across KS, with more of a diurnal threat along the
dryline. Wind profiles will favor supercells in all areas, but storm
mode may be more complex away from the dryline. A few tornadoes,
damaging wind, and large hail are all possible. This severe area for
Wednesday/D6 will likely be adjusted spatially in the coming days.

..Jewell.. 04/27/2018
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 27 2018, 08:56 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Good call going with enhanced IMO. Can't wait to read Dr. Forbes' thoughts.

As people have been warning with regard to the Oklahoma tornado drought (now record breaking), it only takes one event to make the difference.

In 2010, Oklahoma only had 2 tornadoes through the end of April. They ended the year with 74 tornadoes.

It's also the 7th anniversary of the 2011 Super Outbreak, another example of how one event can change the tone of a year.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 27 2018, 09:00 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 27 2018, 08:59 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,676
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





00z Euro



Wednesday could be a sleeper event. Right now the focus is on Tuesday but the conditions near this triple point is alarming. Also one of the best triple points you're ever gonna see.



Edit: I just now realized the enhanced is for Wednesday rolleyes.gif

Strange that Tuesday's not an enhanced risk.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 27 2018, 09:05 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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