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> April 29-May 5 Plains/Midwest/OV/GL Tornado Outbreak, Long-range (6-10 days): forecasts and observations
WeatherMonger
post May 3 2018, 11:34 AM
Post #141




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Enhanced gone

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 3 2018, 01:31 PM
Post #142




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Look at the jet pushing into Missouri and Iowa. Beautiful.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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kpk33x
post May 3 2018, 02:24 PM
Post #143




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From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





Looking doubtful for anything severe here today. The sun really never made it out after we had our first round of storms overnight (half inch of rain and a little wind). We've only hit 73F and drops are appearing on the window again to being round 2.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 3 2018, 02:26 PM
Post #144




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Surprised SPC hasn't even put out a MCD for the convection popping in NE KS right now.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 3 2018, 02:40 PM
Post #145




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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There...


QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern KS...far southeastern
NE...far southwestern IA...and northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031936Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe thunderstorms should continue
to increase this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado or two all appear possible. Watch issuance is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of overnight/early morning convection, the
low-level airmass has at least partially recovered across
northeastern KS into northwestern MO and vicinity. Visible satellite
imagery shows mostly clear conditions across this region, and
surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s
along/south of a warm front extending northeastward into southern IA
from a surface low centered over northeastward KS. Shallow
convection along a surface cold front extending southward from the
low across central KS is beginning to show signs of vertical
development, and thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this
afternoon as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper
low across the central High Plains overspreads this region. With
sufficient low-level moisture present, MLCAPE of generally 500-1500
J/kg will support thunderstorm maintenance through the evening
hours. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kt will be favorable for
supercell structures, and large hail/damaging winds will both be
possible. There will also be some threat for tornadoes given
low-level winds strengthening and modestly veering with height.
Effective SRH values around 150-200 m2/s2 should be maximized near
the surface warm front.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 3 2018, 04:16 PM
Post #146




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Some cells are starting to rotate in Iowa.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 3 2018, 05:51 PM
Post #147




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





It was only a matter of time
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 3 2018, 06:17 PM
Post #148




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,676
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Not sure if DMX is just consistently missing it or if this is a misread by the radar, but there's been pretty strong couplets with this line/supercell thing.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 03:22 AM
Post #149




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Posts: 1,633
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From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





CV thanks for the great analysis over the past few days, really learned lots about severe weather stages and evolution. Look forward to adding to that knowledge throughout the season. Thanks again.


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2018, 10:51 AM
Post #150




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 4 2018, 04:22 AM) *
CV thanks for the great analysis over the past few days, really learned lots about severe weather stages and evolution. Look forward to adding to that knowledge throughout the season. Thanks again.


Absolutely! My posts help me learn, so it's excellent that it's useful for you too. One thing about this field is we're always learning. smile.gif

Looks like one EF3 has been confirmed from this event, which apparently nearly hit a city.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_...May_1%E2%80%933

Severe weather's gonna take a break for a bit... moisture will pool up in the US (especially the southern US), and a system should come along shortly after the 15th.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 5 2018, 03:24 PM
Post #151




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Posts: 22,676
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Should probably be tornado warned, nonetheless severe warned.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 6 2018, 01:15 PM
Post #152




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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Could get some rumbles later.... maybe even a severe or close to severe status storm(s).
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snowlover2
post May 6 2018, 01:38 PM
Post #153




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ May 6 2018, 02:15 PM) *
Could get some rumbles later.... maybe even a severe or close to severe status storm(s).

Already got storms in IN and into W OH. Won't be too long.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 02:41 PM
Post #154




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Sheesh... saw some purples in that cell west of Dayton, thought there might be hail. Nope, CC is near 100 (nearly uniformally sized hydrometeors) and differential reflectivity showing 4-5 dB (massive raindrops)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 6 2018, 04:34 PM
Post #155




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Posts: 18,922
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Warning just south of Cincy now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 04:43 PM
Post #156




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Cincy/Covington is getting some really nice storms... even some training. I'm jealous.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 6 2018, 04:50 PM
Post #157




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 6 2018, 05:43 PM) *
Cincy/Covington is getting some really nice storms... even some training. I'm jealous.

Was watching the Reds game and it was flat pouring there. Needless to say game in a rain delay now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 04:52 PM
Post #158




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Pretty impressive line of storms
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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