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> April 29-May 5 Plains/Midwest/OV/GL Tornado Outbreak, Long-range (6-10 days): forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 27 2018, 12:16 PM
Post #21




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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 28 2018, 01:07 AM
Post #22




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Tuesday



Western OK




South-southwest OK


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PGM
post Apr 28 2018, 07:00 AM
Post #23




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Topeka AFD
Attached Image


Wednesday evening looking good. Tornado outbreak?

Attached Image


Attached Image


Look at the dryline bulges!

This post has been edited by PGM: Apr 28 2018, 07:01 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 28 2018, 11:02 AM
Post #24




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That's some insane wording from Topeka! Wow.

Wonder if we can get a day 3 moderate out of this.

Be pretty interesting if Oklahoma's tornado drought ends with a high risk for tornadoes laugh.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 28 2018, 11:12 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 28 2018, 03:17 PM
Post #25




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QUOTE
WEDNESDAY 5/2
Severe thunderstorms in south NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, northeast CO, central and east KS and possibly northwest KS, northeast, central and southwest OK, a strip of west TX near Wichita Falls, Abilene, Fort Stockton. TORCON- 5 OK and KS areas; 4 southeast and south-central NE, IA and MO area; 3 rest of area.

A surface low near the KS/CO border and stationary front to southern IA serve to focus some storms, while a dryline in west TX focuses others, but with the next trough of upper-air forcing approaching the warm sector over KS and OK should develop severe thunderstorms this time, with low-level shear and instability more than strong enough for tornadoes.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 28 2018, 03:24 PM
Post #26




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Wichita's AFD is good but not as alarming as Topeka's was.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

Stronger mid/upper flow will move out across the southern/central
Plains for Wed as the main upper impulse slides over the Desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, low level moisture will continue to pump
into the region with mid 60 dewpoints a good bet by Wed afternoon.
Once again, expecting a triple point to be located somewhere over
west-central KS by Wed afternoon with the dryline extending
into western OK. Currently expecting more widespread storms along
the dryline/warm front Wed due to less capping, better large scale
forcing and richer low level moisture. 0-6km shear will be in the
50 to 60kt range with CAPE in the 2500-3000J/kg range. Low level
shear isn`t that impressive until surface flow starts to back
closer to sunset as low level jet increases. Deep layer shear
looks to be normal to the dryline which should keep anything that
develops along it fairly isolated which should minimize storm
interaction and increase tornado potential, especially toward
evening.

Also seems to be some model agreement now that much of eastern KS
will be in play for severe storms Thu afternoon and evening as
the front appears slower to push east. Of course, much of that
will be dictated by how Wed evening storms modify the environment,
but think it`s at least worth a mention at this point. So we
could be looking at a 3 day severe weather event across the
Plains.


Topeka's afternoon AFD isn't as exciting as their mornings was.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PGM
post Apr 29 2018, 04:32 PM
Post #27




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Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


What a beauty. A couple of my friends who live in the region are planning on chasing this one Tuesday and Wednesday. Obviously outbreak potential looks to be Wednesday at the moment.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 29 2018, 04:46 PM
Post #28




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Adjusted the start date to this thread because... yeah
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Gnutella
post Apr 30 2018, 09:29 AM
Post #29




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 29 2018, 05:46 PM) *
Adjusted the start date to this thread because... yeah


Ayyyy, whassup, Clovis! smile.gif

Sorry, I always thought Clovis was a funny name. biggrin.gif
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grennels
post Apr 30 2018, 11:09 AM
Post #30




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Northwest Ohio - Where storms come to die!
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 30 2018, 11:31 AM
Post #31




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No big changes from Dr. Forbes. Still a 5 TORCON. In his discussion he says there should be a cap in place but should be overcome in isolated spots. He says shear will be more than adequate for tornadoes. I would assume hes only keeping the torcon down because of issues of where exactly the cap will break because all ingredients are there, and it sounds like the cap should make storm mode discrete or semi discrete. Certainly implies a great tornado threat with those supercells due to lack of storm interaction and potential for long tracked supercells with tornado families or long lived tornadoes.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 30 2018, 11:35 AM
Post #32




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QUOTE(grennels @ Apr 30 2018, 12:09 PM) *
Attached Image

While the plains will definitely steal the show, the threat for the eastern GL region is impressive:

Thursday afternoon in western NY state looks pretty nasty on today's 12z NAM:

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Apr 30 2018, 11:36 AM
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 30 2018, 03:15 PM
Post #33




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 30 2018, 12:35 PM) *
While the plains will definitely steal the show, the threat for the eastern GL region is impressive:

Thursday afternoon in western NY state looks pretty nasty on today's 12z NAM:

As I stated in the first post, there's certainly some severe potential outside of the Plains which was missed by GFS (as I thought would happen)... but be very cautious about hour 84 NAM.

Good to see this broad western trough. It's been too long. Looks like there's gonna be multiple areas of significant hail producing supercells today as a part of a severe weather ramp up. Marginal yesterday, slight today, enhanced tomorrow (potential for small moderate IMO near the triple point in KS)... then probably a moderate on Wednesday.



I'm excited to watch the storms on GOES16 over the next few days. This should be the first time we get to watch storms blow up in a strongly unstable (2500-3000 CAPE) atmosphere.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 30 2018, 03:18 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 30 2018, 03:51 PM
Post #34




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Seeing consistency between SREF and NAM regarding enhanced potential near the NE/KS border tomorrow



SREF looks pretty lame for Wednesday



Thursday looks more impressive but I'd imagine there's going to be potential for debris clouds to dampen the severe threat



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PGM
post Apr 30 2018, 05:13 PM
Post #35




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RGEM has a really nasty outbreak Wednesday afternoon. NAM is holding back on initiation, but the environment is just as nasty.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 30 2018, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 30 2018, 06:13 PM) *
RGEM has a really nasty outbreak Wednesday afternoon. NAM is holding back on initiation, but the environment is just as nasty.

Some of the other NAM-based CAMs have some very impressive discrete to semi discrete storm modes.

NAM is showing an entirely discrete supercell near the low tomorrow and Wednesday. Will be interesting to see what HRRR and RAP show tonight for tomorrow. I think the number of supercells tomorrow will be more than 1 but shouldn't be as numerous as Wednesday.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 30 2018, 07:26 PM
Post #37




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 26 2018, 05:20 PM) *
USTornadoes.com will make their first forecast of the year on Monday. This is a month later than last year's first forecast.


Expecting 2-5 today, 2-5 tomorrow, and 8-18 on Wednesday. For Wednesday, they say VBV is a limiting factor but I've only seen VBV in Kansas, and it's not even that impressive.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2018/04/30/torn...-30-may-6-2018/

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 30 2018, 07:26 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Apr 30 2018, 07:37 PM
Post #38




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 30 2018, 12:35 PM) *
While the plains will definitely steal the show, the threat for the eastern GL region is impressive:

Thursday afternoon in western NY state looks pretty nasty on today's 12z NAM:

The 18Z NAM continues the idea. If it's still showing that healthy squall this time tomorrow I'll bite.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 30 2018, 10:13 PM
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Still liking central KS for tornado potential tomorrow by the triple point




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 1 2018, 12:33 AM
Post #40




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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RAP has serious dryness issues. It's an outlier among NAM, GFS, and from what I can see so far, HRRR. Just thought it was worth pointing out.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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