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> May 1 - 6, 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Surge, Our First 80s & 90s since last Fall
NorEaster07
post Apr 26 2018, 06:25 AM
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June Like Warmth coming..

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: May 6 2018, 06:49 AM
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NorEaster07
post Apr 26 2018, 06:27 AM
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NYC Data from the GFS00z overnight..

Check out the Heights for next week. 580+! That's like a warm June pattern.

850mb temps in the 50s/60s (F°)

Rain chances Friday, Saturday night then with a ridge overhead have to wait another week for rain.

Funny I boxed out the 70s and 80s. I could of done 60s too being how cold its been. These are the max temps so NYC might very well hit mid 80s.

Check out what It has for 8am Saturday May 5th. 67°! Hot morning

Lastly... the best part.... Dew points in the 40s & 50s!

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KENNYP2339
post Apr 26 2018, 10:21 AM
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Well its about time, I got all the yard clean up done so now I'm ready for some beers in the screened in porch while watching the yanks play ball
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MD Blue Ridge
post Apr 26 2018, 10:49 AM
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I. CANNOT. WAIT.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Apr 26 2018, 11:41 AM
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I commented, on my FB page, that I believe this is the true warmth we've (all?) been waiting for. I know that a day or two ago, the models tried to "ruin" the run by swinging a trough in next weekend. So, I understand the thread end dating - but am not sold on it actually being so steep a temp drop that it would negate the overall warmth I'm (trying to?) see for the first half of May. smile.gif

Having said all that... I LOVED the 70's back then and I LOVE the 70's still.

Best part is that the temps don't seem to soar well into the 80's and, as NE pointed out, the DP's should be manageable. smile.gif
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Undertakerson
post Apr 26 2018, 11:43 AM
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And WPC seems to agree that the potential for an even longer warm period "may" be in the offing.

WPC Extended

QUOTE
KEPT CONTINUITY VIA THE ENSEMBLES THAT ALLOWED
THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. RIDGING IN THE EAST MAY PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE
NORTHERN PORTION MAY TRY TO SNEAK EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW AND
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WERE SLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO
STAY OVER THE NORTHEAST LONGER.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

NWS CTP had this to say...

QUOTE
The high pressure will continue to slide to the E and S and set
up along or just off the Atlantic Seaboard for the middle of the
week. Look for temperatures finally rising above average and
real spring weather arriving next week with many areas finally
seeing a substantial green-up.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Apr 26 2018, 11:44 AM
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NorEaster07
post Apr 26 2018, 06:31 PM
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Yeah, Canadian keeps it hot.
Euro has some trough come in on 6th but normal surface temps
Gfs now staying warm.

I'll add a ? until its known. This could be an extended period.
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thedarkestclouds
post Apr 26 2018, 07:10 PM
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Looking forward to it, and I'm glad it's happening now while a "warm spell" is still a good thing. Once we get into late May or so, "warm spells" start to equate to uncomfortable weather around here.
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NorEaster07
post Apr 26 2018, 08:48 PM
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Btw...today was 1st time we had an above normal day since April 14th. 12 days ago
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MaineJay
post Apr 27 2018, 05:38 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
Tuesday the upper level low begins to progress eastward allowing
warm air to surge northwards. While the surge of warmth is certainly
expected by midweek the timing of the breakdown of the cut off is
less certain. Have opted to decrease high temperatures a bit Tuesday
and lean towards a slower departure of the upper low as is common
for this time of year.

By Wednesday the upper low departs and a large ridge builds
into the region and continues through Thursday. The ridge will
be dry and allow temperatures to climb to near 80 in the south

bringing the warmest day we`ve seen in a long time with
temperatures around 15 degrees above normal.

The heat will continue right into Thursday where once again most of
the southern portion of the area makes a run at 80F.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Apr 27 2018, 05:48 AM
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Record Max Temps for May 1, 2, & 3

For Bridgeport: 83, 85, 86
For Hartford: 88, 93, 93
For NYC (Central Park): 87, 90, 90
For Philly: 90, 89, 90


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Undertakerson
post Apr 27 2018, 06:00 AM
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I prefer the high 70's but, so long as the temps stay in the lower 80's, I shall manage to "survive", I suppose. tongue.gif

Time to get some J channel and soffit pieces and finally tackle that re-siding job I've been putting off for too long now.
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Ahoff
post Apr 27 2018, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 27 2018, 06:48 AM) *
Record Max Temps for May 1, 2, & 3

For Bridgeport: 83, 85, 86
For Hartford: 88, 93, 93
For NYC (Central Park): 87, 90, 90
For Philly: 90, 89, 90


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Those Pittsburgh records though!

I doubt we go that high. laugh.gif
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MD Blue Ridge
post Apr 27 2018, 07:54 AM
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Maybe Saturday can be our last frost/freeze. Ready to get plants out of the basement.



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yamvmax
post Apr 27 2018, 08:06 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Apr 27 2018, 07:54 AM) *
Maybe Saturday can be our last frost/freeze. Ready to get plants out of the basement.

Freeze, probably, frost I doubt it.
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geeter1
post Apr 27 2018, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Apr 27 2018, 08:54 AM) *
Maybe Saturday can be our last frost/freeze. Ready to get plants out of the basement.



My cold crop is in the ground. Looking like it will
not be necessary to cover them up going forward.
This light rain is really a bonus for the plants and
the yard cool.gif cool.gif
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LUCC
post Apr 27 2018, 11:00 AM
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Jeez, almost 90 here for Thursday!


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Apr 27 2018, 11:42 AM
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CTP updated mention of the warming - with a small indicator of a potential "fly in the (warm) ointment

QUOTE
A brighter, milder day is expected Monday, as upper low shifts
into New England. However, the real warm up will occur during
mid week, as upper low lifts out and is replaced by anomalous
upper level ridging along the east coast.
8h temps from med
range guidance surge to near 15C by Thursday, which could
support max temps in the low to mid 80s
in valley locations.

NAEFS and ECENS showing a quasi-stationary frontal boundary not
too far north of Pa the second half of the week,
so will maintain
at least a chance of a shower/tstorm Wed/Thu, mainly near the NY
border.
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PlanetMaster
post Apr 27 2018, 12:22 PM
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Long range has us in the mid 70's to around 80 wed-fri next week then cooling off to the mid 60's which is fine with me. Best news is dry for the most part all of next week, that is before something unexpected shows up which is likely given the way things have gone this year, hopefully not.


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NorEaster07
post Apr 27 2018, 01:40 PM
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I like how he mentions the wood burner. That's for sure as I contemplate lighting the fire once again today. 61° inside.

From Paulie P's blog

QUOTE
What's next after big warmup?

It’s pretty well established that the East is finally going to see another warmup and some more pleasant conditions for a couple of days. The wood burner, oil furnaces and electric baseboards will get a break.

Moving forward, however, the rest of the month does not look quite as warm.
With that said, it also doesn’t look as chilly as the current pattern.

The trusty four-panel teleconnections show some major changes post warmup.

The most important changes come in the form of the weakening NAO and the reversal of the negative PNA. The negative PNA and positive NAO combine for a big eastern U.S. signal in the midterm. But the NAO heads back towards neutral signaling the end of major blocking and the PNA heads back positive leading to ridging in the West and unsettled weather for the eastern half of the U.S.

The pattern through at least day 15 and likely into the middle of the month will be for a weak eastern trough but generally near- to even above-normal heights in the East, with a ridge and above-normal heights in the west. Still not quite the zonal pattern we normally expect this time of year but less amplified than it was at the start of the month. The GFS ensemble pattern for May 10 might be a consistent one we see much of the month:
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