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> May 1 - 6, 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Surge, Our First 80s & 90s since last Fall
NorEaster07
post Apr 27 2018, 07:21 PM
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GFS Fantasy land hour 384....is this a fantasy? 90s for the I95 corridor. Lol

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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2018, 07:10 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 27 2018, 02:40 PM) *
I like how he mentions the wood burner. That's for sure as I contemplate lighting the fire once again today. 61 inside.

From Paulie P's blog


Yea I kind of agree with his thoughts Im not seeing an overwhelmingly large warm signal. Still think we have periods of warm and cool, with overall average. The 1st is maybe at or just slightly above average 2nd is when it should really kick in. Might have to watch out though as there will be little systems that move across the northern areas and may keep them average or slightly below. After this saturday though it looks like it may not be as cut and dry with warmth. Thinking that we have small bouts of warmth from this weekend coming up through to about mid month where it looks like ridging gets a better hold in the east towards the end of the runs. A lot can change of course but hey at least with a moving average we are bound to be getting warmer relatively speaking.

Ill take it though couple days of warmth to cool back down a bit.


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Undertakerson
post Apr 28 2018, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 28 2018, 08:10 AM) *
Yea I kind of agree with his thoughts Im not seeing an overwhelmingly large warm signal. Still think we have periods of warm and cool, with overall average. The 1st is maybe at or just slightly above average 2nd is when it should really kick in. Might have to watch out though as there will be little systems that move across the northern areas and may keep them average or slightly below. After this saturday though it looks like it may not be as cut and dry with warmth. Thinking that we have small bouts of warmth from this weekend coming up through to about mid month where it looks like ridging gets a better hold in the east towards the end of the runs. A lot can change of course but hey at least with a moving average we are bound to be getting warmer relatively speaking.

Ill take it though couple days of warmth to cool back down a bit.

Temp and height anoms are only, briefly, interrupted on the bulk of operational guidance ATTM. I have to agree with the overall "warm" signal to prevail through at least the first 12 days of May.

The Weather World version looks to be about right - not hot, not cool. "Goldilocks" weather I would call it. smile.gif

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Of course, when I find some verification of the thoughts I put out under my Fb alter ego - I'll take it.

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Apr 28 2018, 03:20 PM
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Undertakerson
post Apr 28 2018, 03:32 PM
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WPC mentions the northern stream trough stalling/shearing, as it translates out of the Midwest towards our region, late next week.

They mention this in the "impact" discussion.

QUOTE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAJOR STORY DURING MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY
. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES WITH EVEN SOME RECORDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT FROM THE MILD
CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD LEAD TO SUCH DAILY RECORDS BEING BROKEN.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...COOL CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL CARRY HIGHS INTO THE 70S UP INTO
PORTLAND OR AND SEATTLE WA.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2018, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 28 2018, 04:18 PM) *
Temp and height anoms are only, briefly, interrupted on the bulk of operational guidance ATTM. I have to agree with the overall "warm" signal to prevail through at least the first 12 days of May.

The Weather World version looks to be about right - not hot, not cool. "Goldilocks" weather I would call it. smile.gif

Attached Image


Of course, when I find some verification of the thoughts I put out under my Fb alter ego - I'll take it.

Attached Image



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 28 2018, 04:32 PM) *
WPC mentions the northern stream trough stalling/shearing, as it translates out of the Midwest towards our region, late next week.

They mention this in the "impact" discussion.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


Well that was a fun ride back in the area today winds were howling out ahead of the TS, which is the first one I believe of the year.

Anyways as for the warm theme I see what WPC mentions of shearing out and not creating a large dip but flow would have it that we have NW flow setting up, ridging into western Canada and possibly even the chance of Tropical influence(GFS 12z run today) on the west Atlantic/ Bermuda high spells recipe for unwanted cool weather.

Im just not liking it the time period of going into mid may stands a better chance with how MJO progression should take place and make a run through the "warm" region for the east. I gotta admit this is a pretty crazy pattern where we keep pulling in cool weather into the East I surely didnt expect it this long but seems to be mighty impressive to say the least.


--------------------
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Millersville University


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Undertakerson
post Apr 28 2018, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 28 2018, 05:02 PM) *
Well that was a fun ride back in the area today winds were howling out ahead of the TS, which is the first one I believe of the year.

Anyways as for the warm theme I see what WPC mentions of shearing out and not creating a large dip but flow would have it that we have NW flow setting up, ridging into western Canada and possibly even the chance of Tropical influence(GFS 12z run today) on the west Atlantic/ Bermuda high spells recipe for unwanted cool weather.

Im just not liking it the time period of going into mid may stands a better chance with how MJO progression should take place and make a run through the "warm" region for the east. I gotta admit this is a pretty crazy pattern where we keep pulling in cool weather into the East I surely didnt expect it this long but seems to be mighty impressive to say the least.

All relative though - as this discussion points to SWF in advance of the shearing northern low as it lifts towards SE Canada.


QUOTE
North and west will see increasing clouds Tuesday night with a
chance of showers or maybe a thunderstorm by afternoon.
Harrisburg southeast will see increasing clouds during the day
with the chance for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday
evening. Warm front linger north of the PA/NY border into Friday
as another low pressure area moves northeast out of the
Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes.
This leaves central
PA in the warm sector with some chance for scattered showers
and maybe a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Friday afternoon the
coldfront associated with the Great Lakes low swings east across
PA in the afternoon and night
. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms with this. Clearing Friday night into Saturday
behind the front. Highs Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler
than Friday but[b] still comfortable in the 60s to low 70s
[/b].


These brief interludes of cool pools swinging by the north, probably not enough to truly blunt the warmth - but just as likely is what keeps us from "torching". All in all, looking very nice and warm - just not overly so.
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NorEaster07
post Apr 29 2018, 02:18 AM
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850mb Temp Anomaly Canadian, Euro, GFS

Looks like the warmth will only last 5-6 days

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As soon as the current Upper Low moves out we begin

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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2018, 06:24 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 28 2018, 06:56 PM) *
All relative though - as this discussion points to SWF in advance of the shearing northern low as it lifts towards SE Canada.
These brief interludes of cool pools swinging by the north, probably not enough to truly blunt the warmth - but just as likely is what keeps us from "torching". All in all, looking very nice and warm - just not overly so.

Essentially it is the same idea but heights aloft take a hit after this weekend so not as much of a warm threat other than average ish weather. Ill take the 60's and 70's across the area with relatively low dp's.

Going to have to watch wednesday should feature 80's and probably thursday (was forecasted to be the warmest with mid and upper 80's) but gotta watch front location and cloud cover. Friday should feature still warmer than normal and should hit 80's across many regions, again depending on cloud cover though. Front through even earlier now friday night so saturday and sunday should manage to be decent days in the 60's as well as monday to about wednesday where it should warm-up a little more around wednesday/thursday but another system and troughing. Will keep an eye on it but relatively speaking some 10-20 above average highs and probably similar with lows for a couple days than back to average again.

Wanna see if we manage that tropical system in the western Atlantic bermuda region.


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Tylor Cartter

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Millersville University


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NorEaster07
post Apr 29 2018, 06:30 AM
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3 days of 80s coming for north of I-95.

Coastal CT on left. Inland on right.

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Meanwhile this morning a stacked Surface and Upper Low over the region with snow falling under it over parts of NY.

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geeter1
post Apr 29 2018, 08:49 AM
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Was 54F here at 5:00 AM, now down to 46F.

Sun is breaking thru the clouds though cool.gif cool.gif
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NorEaster07
post Apr 29 2018, 04:44 PM
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QUOTE(geeter1 @ Apr 29 2018, 08:49 AM) *
Was 54F here at 5:00 AM, now down to 46F.

Sun is breaking thru the clouds though cool.gif cool.gif


Today made me looking forward to this heat coming even more...if that was even possible. Didn't pass mid 50s.
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longislander
post Apr 30 2018, 03:20 PM
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Fits the pattern of recent years - no spring anymore in the northeast. Winter drag into late April, then one day in May you instantly need air conditioning. All this talk of "climate change" this or that, that's the main change I see the last 5 years (really, since superstorm Sandy) - no spring, we move from winter right into summer.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 30 2018, 04:10 PM
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Im cautiously optimistic here about temps on thursday closer to the PA/MD border and south the better the chance of this probably being a good day still. A piece of energy coming into the GL region for thursday may spark off some showers and storms into western PA and western NY that could hamper some max temp heating potential further east and especially into NE region depending on how much cloud debris there is, coastal plain up to maine should fair pretty well for most of the day. Small front barely noticeable moves through overnight thursday into much of northern and central PA and new england before coming back through as a warm front into early friday.

Friday will be the tricky forecast as to when exactly the front comes through, how much moisture there will be, as well as how much cloud debris will exist. Knowing from past experience coastal plain usually warms up the best and you cool as you go further west with increasing cloud cover. Could be a scenario where some places push only upper 70s, which is still above normal but not the mid and upper 80s some were thinking, but still a little early to know for sure. Will get a better handle on how cloud debris fades after the severe weather takes place in the midwest.

Looks like the warmer conditions on the coastal plain will hold until about Wednesday/Thursday


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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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Undertakerson
post Apr 30 2018, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(longislander @ Apr 30 2018, 04:20 PM) *
Fits the pattern of recent years - no spring anymore in the northeast. Winter drag into late April, then one day in May you instantly need air conditioning. All this talk of "climate change" this or that, that's the main change I see the last 5 years (really, since superstorm Sandy) - no spring, we move from winter right into summer.

Again though, it would depend on location and perspective. Here in central PA, for example, it's actually been very spring like in the historic sense I've come to know over the past 6 decades. In fact, this Spring is an anomaly, in your comparison, because many of the past couple seasons have been more like you describe. But this one is not like those, it's more typical of what SHOULD be happening - slow to warm, but warming in the main. The flip switch years, from cold to hot, do show up these more recent years, but to compare this year to those probably varies greatly, within this sub region forum.
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kpk33x
post Apr 30 2018, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(longislander @ Apr 30 2018, 03:20 PM) *
Fits the pattern of recent years - no spring anymore in the northeast. Winter drag into late April, then one day in May you instantly need air conditioning. All this talk of "climate change" this or that, that's the main change I see the last 5 years (really, since superstorm Sandy) - no spring, we move from winter right into summer.


We had winter and summer in one day here in Illinois. 31F with heavy frost yesterday. 39F this morning and our heat was coming on intermittently. Then it was 79F this afternoon, nearly warm enough to kick on the AC if not for the breeze and 14% humidity. So our spring lasted maybe 2 hours in late morning?

80F tomorrow and Wednesday before the storms come.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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RickRD
post Apr 30 2018, 07:03 PM
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Hitting links tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday!
Did I mention I played 9 today? Was a bit chilly. Can't wait for the warmth!!!
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MaineJay
post May 1 2018, 03:36 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
Wednesday will be the warmest day we`ve seen in a long time.
Temperatures will soar well into the 80s across the region. With
the westerly flow, no seabreeze will be able to form and the
warm temperatures will extend right to the waters edge. The
west flow will also provide some downsloping component and have
thus increased high temperatures slightly. Southern New
Hampshire may even have a shot at 90 degrees.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post May 1 2018, 03:49 AM
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CTP

smile.gif



QUOTE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Big warm up continues into mid week, as anomalous upper level
ridge builds along the east coast. 8h temps from med range
guidance surge to near 15C, which will support max temps at
least in the mid 80s in valley locations
.

There could be a shower or thunderstorm late Wednesday into
Thursday across northern PA, but the frontal system will be
further north, so not a big chance.

More chance of showers and storms on Friday, as a cold front
moves southeast.

While severe storms not real likely on Friday, given that the
best upper level wind fields lift well to the north of the
area, we will be on the southern edge of a pressure gradient
that would support some gusty winds, if the EC model is right.
However, the low is lifting northeast as it deepens.

As the mid shift had put a chance of showers in for Saturday,
left them for now, given the secondary cold front. I did adjust
some to take showers out across the north and west for Saturday
night.

Went mainly with the superblend for day 7, but a few adjustments
here and there.

Main change to the package was to edge dewpoints down a tad for
mid week and edge max temps up some.

Enjoy the Spring weather.
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KENNYP2339
post May 1 2018, 04:30 AM
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Cant wait for the warmth, Yesterday I had to light the woodstove, temps in the low 40's with a persistent shower. Hopefully today.. windows open. I did have the chance to visit friends in Southern PA on Saturday, they are like 2 weeks ahead of us up here in regards to spring like conditions, everyone was outside mowing, the sun was strong, the air just had the "spring feel" to it. My grass is just starting to green up, no mowing yet, but I do think it will start to rapidly grow this week. My garden flowers are struggling to maintain there small growths.
I can honestly say, I'm ready for the warm, and I don't care if we go right to summer like heat.
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NorEaster07
post May 1 2018, 07:26 AM
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May 1st....finally.

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