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> May 9-15 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Medium-range: 4-8 day forecasts and observations
Juniorrr
post May 8 2018, 10:57 AM
Post #21




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Timing is important for OH. I know any organized line usually travels faster than the general time models have storms impacting.
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snowlover2
post May 8 2018, 12:38 PM
Post #22




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SPC does shift the day 2 risks both east and north. Slight risk is now into SW MI into W IN/E IL. Marginal is into W OH.

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue May 08 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN IL...WESTERN IN...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated
severe hail will be possible across parts of the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern and central
Plains is expected to continue eastward into the upper Midwest
today, continuing across the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another
shortwave trough, currently moving through southern Alberta, will
follow quickly in the wake of the first, eventually catching up to,
and phasing with, the lead system as it moves across the mid MS and
lower/mid OH Valleys. Surface low associated with the lead shortwave
will take a similar path to the parent upper system, moving across
the upper Midwest and through the upper Great Lakes.

Farther west, upper ridging initially in place from the Four Corners
into the northern Rockies will dampen somewhat as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough ejects across the Interior Pacific Northwest and
into the northern Rockies late in the period. Predominately
westerly/northwesterly flow aloft across the Rockies and into the
Plains will favor a sharpening lee trough across the High Plains.
Thunderstorms may develop across the higher terrain and move out
into the High Plains, particularly across portions of western MT and
eastern CO.

...Mid MS Valley...Lower OH Valley...Lower MI...
Complex forecast scenario is anticipated across the region
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period within the warm-air advection zone from the
upper Midwest into the mid MS Valley. This antecedent precipitation
and resulting cloud cover casts some doubt as to whether
destabilization will be able to occur across these areas (i.e.
southern MN and western IL) before the surface trough moves through.
Most of the latest guidance, both parameterized and
convection-allowing (i.e. HREF), keep this area free of storms.
Current expectation is for convective initiation to occur farther
east from central IL into southeast lower MI as the surface trough
and approaching shortwave trough interact with a modestly moist and
unstable airmass.

Given the generally weak mid to upper level flow, vertical shear
profiles support a predominately multicell storm mode. Occasional
bowing segments are likely given the linear nature of the forcing
for ascent and relatively stronger low-level flow with a resulting
threat for damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out,
especially across portions of northern IN and adjacent southwest
lower MI where slightly stronger low-level flow and more backed
surface winds are anticipated. Hail is also possible, especially as
a result of brief updraft intensification resulting from cell
mergers.

...High Plains...
Orographically enhanced lift may result in a few storms over the
higher terrain upwind of the southern High Plains while more
synoptically evident forcing for ascent will likely contribute to
thunderstorm development farther north. In either case, eastward
progression into a more mixed low-level airmass may contribute to
the potential for a few strong gusts. This is especially true across
southeast CO where there boundary layer will likely extend to around
10 kft amidst modest upslope flow.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Mosier.. 05/08/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 8 2018, 03:36 PM
Post #23




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18z 3K NAM really hits SE IN/SW OH hard tomorrow night.

Attached Image


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 8 2018, 08:00 PM
Post #24




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12z GFS looks really good for us. Solid 4-5 days with 2-3 EHI along a stationary front draped across the OV. 18z doesn't look as good but it's alright hopefully 12z was right.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 8 2018, 08:51 PM
Post #25




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There was a tornado report in SE SD. Must've been outflow induced because there's literally no SRH there.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 8 2018, 09:29 PM
Post #26




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0z 3K NAM slowed down a bit from 18z but still looks stormy for IN/W OH.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 8 2018, 11:52 PM
Post #27




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03z HRRR




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 9 2018, 01:06 AM
Post #28




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New day 1 sees another east shift of the east side of the slight risk. Now covers most of IN.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 09 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms -- with embedded/isolated severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail -- will
be possible across parts of the Midwest today. Isolated severe
storms with attendant risk for gusty/damaging winds may also occur
across the Kansas vicinity late this afternoon.

...Synopsis...
While upper troughs linger near both the West and East Coasts, a
short-wave trough crossing the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys into
the Midwest region will be the primary feature associated with the
bulk of the convective/severe risk this period.

At the surface, a weak low/trough associated with the aforementioned
short-wave trough will advance into the Midwest by afternoon --
focusing convective development. Otherwise, high pressure will
prevail across the southern and eastern U.S. while a weak cold front
advances across the West.

...Southern Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region...
Weak early-period convection will likely be moving eastward across
portions of the risk area, gradually dissipating through the day.
Meanwhile, as a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates spreads into
the Midwest, at least some heating in the wake of the dissipating
convection/cloud cover should provide an amply unstable environment
for convective redevelopment to occur near the eastward-moving
surface trough crossing the Illinois/Wisconsin vicinity during the
afternoon. While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest through
peak heating, enhanced low-level flow suggests potential for some
storm organization -- and attendant risk for damaging winds and hail
-- and possibly a brief tornado. Low-level veering with height may
increase during the early evening hours, but any enhancement to the
tornado risk as a result should be mitigated by a gradually cooling
boundary layer, and some tendency for upscale growth of the
convection linearly. As such, the primary severe risk lingering
into the evening hours appears likely to be gusty/damaging winds.

...Kansas area...
As a weak/subtle short-wave trough shifts east-southeast toward the
central High Plains above weak low-level southeasterly upslope flow,
isolated/high-based convection may develop across the northwest
Kansas vicinity by late afternoon/early evening. Though CAPE should
remain modest, a multi-model signal for isolated storm development
is noted. Given the deep/dry mixed layer, potential exists for
evaporatively aided downdrafts, which may produce gusts to severe
levels in a few locales -- particularly if some weak upscale growth
occurs resulting in a ragged cluster of storms shifting southeast
across Kansas. However, with late convective initiation expected,
and thus a gradually stabilizing boundary layer likely to limit more
appreciable wind risk, will introduce only MRGL risk across the
area.

..Goss/Leitman.. 05/09/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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PlanetMaster
post May 9 2018, 01:51 AM
Post #29




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Indiana does seem to be the hot spot Wed/Thurs

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This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 9 2018, 01:53 AM


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FireworkWX03
post May 9 2018, 08:50 AM
Post #30




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The 12Z HRRR also likes a broken squall line from Cincinnati to Mansfield or so around midnight. NAM 3km reflectivity is kind of all over the place from run to run but has maintained something for SW OH continuously.
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snowlover2
post May 9 2018, 11:02 AM
Post #31




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12z NAM's and HRRR all don't seemed that enthused now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 9 2018, 05:14 PM
Post #32




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Confirmed tornado just NW of Milwaukee WI.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
506 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

WIC131-092230-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180509T2230Z/
Washington WI-
506 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 504 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Jackson, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 458 PM, a tornado
was reported just west of Hubertus by a trained spotter.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Richfield and Hubertus.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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WeatherMonger
post May 9 2018, 05:43 PM
Post #33




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Odd, just had a few pea size hail ston... pellets fall with a brief sprinkle.

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Snow____
post May 9 2018, 05:46 PM
Post #34




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Ive had some off and on downpours.


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melissa from ill...
post May 9 2018, 06:03 PM
Post #35




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As soon as i got my grill goin it started thundering and sprinkling, lol


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"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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WeatherMonger
post May 9 2018, 06:23 PM
Post #36




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Getting pea hail again, not large amounts just seeing sporadic bounces
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 9 2018, 11:12 PM
Post #37




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Gonna extend the date for this thread because it's become apparent the trough that kicked off this thread is going to be extremely stubborn. Classic Rex block setup here, setting up a southern jet stream that flows through Oklahoma into the OV/GL. Tonights GFS has this trough being visible through May 15. It has another trough approaching the west coast... so that will have to be watched for our next thread.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 9 2018, 11:23 PM
Post #38




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Nice light show here right now. Hoping that line near Indy can hold together.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 9 2018, 11:45 PM
Post #39




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 10 2018, 12:23 AM) *
Nice light show here right now. Hoping that line near Indy can hold together.

Instability is holding on pretty well. The thing I'm worried about is how far ahead the gust front is.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PlanetMaster
post May 9 2018, 11:51 PM
Post #40




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From: Babylon, NY
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 10 2018, 12:23 AM) *
Nice light show here right now. Hoping that line near Indy can hold together.

Not as intense as indicated by the models past couple days, I think the dryness of the atmosphere also helped keep this a bit more stable. Dews mostly in the 50's with 40's out in front not conducive to explosive development.



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