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> May 16-20 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post May 19 2018, 02:45 PM
Post #21




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Interesting that they go with a tornado warning now, not like 10 minutes ago.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 19 2018, 02:46 PM
Post #22




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Cell popped in south-central KS right along a boundary that existed 2 hours ago




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 19 2018, 07:49 PM
Post #23




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Today's severe weather threat really failed badly. Makes me wonder if that helps our chances tomorrow.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 19 2018, 09:35 PM
Post #24




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0z NAM doesn't do much tomorrow. 3K NAM on the other hand develops an MCS late Sunday night in W IL and reaches W OH by Monday morning.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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WeatherMonger
post May 19 2018, 10:20 PM
Post #25




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My bet is it won't even take a more organized band if storms to ruin tomorrow's potential, #centralILwxsucks


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Latest surface analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary lying
across our far northern counties with the latest ILX objective
analysis indicating some persistent low level convergence along
this feature. However, not much has developed early this evening.
A large complex of storms moved across south central Missouri
late this afternoon into far southern Illinois with the outflow
boundary well off to our south at this hour. Another complex of
storms has moved northeast out of southwest Missouri but as it
encountered the much more stable air in place west of St.Louis
early this evening it has weakened with cell propagation more
to the east and southeast into a more unstable air mass. Due
to the two clusters of storms moving across south central Mo,
into far southern IL, quite a bit of convective inhibition in
place, so will do a little work on the POP chances across the
forecast area overnight.

The lastest High Resolution Rapid Refresh models continue their
trends from late this afternoon when they were suggesting not
much, if any strong convection was going to work its way northeast
into the area late tonight. Both the HRRR and HRRR-X suggest a
dissipating band of convection moves in towards Midnight and then
another cluster of storms tracks northeast out of Missouri into
our area Sunday morning. Just what affect, if any, this will have
on our convection chances tomorrow afternoon remains uncertain at
this point. If we see very little organized storm activity overnight,
we will be primed for strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon
over at least our central and southern counties. If the Sunday
morning band of storms is more organized than currently forecast,
than our atmosphere may take longer to reload tomorrow afternoon
in addition to trying to determine the best location where storms
would fire
. For now, will not make any significant changes to
Sunday`s outlook and make some adjustments to the overnight POPs
based on current trends this evening. The updated ZFP should be
out by 9:15 pm.
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 12:52 AM
Post #26




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 19 2018, 10:35 PM) *
0z NAM doesn't do much tomorrow. 3K NAM on the other hand develops an MCS late Sunday night in W IL and reaches W OH by Monday morning.

HRRR goes through tomorrow evening now and has constantly shown a pretty large bowing MCS develop around St. Louis and really bows out as it gets into IN. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC has an enhanced area on the new outlook shortly. Wouldn't surprise me if they stay slight for now either.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 01:02 AM
Post #27




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And SPC not only drops the slight but shrinks the marginal.
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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms may develop across portions of the lower
Missouri and Ohio Valley today. Additional strong storms are
possible across portions of central Texas.

...Lower MO and OH Valleys...
A ribbon of 30-40 kt 500mb flow will extend from the western part of
the Ozark Plateau northeast into the southern Great Lakes during the
day. Considerable convective overturning is expected across the
southern Plains prior to sunrise in association with several
thunderstorm complexes. A weak mid-level shortwave trough, likely
augmented to a certain extent by an overnight MCV, will move into
the Ozarks during the day. Model guidance varies considerably in
the location and coverage of storms through the morning but it
appears extensive southwest-northeast convective clusters will decay
during the morning from TX northeast into MO. Model guidance
appears too aggressive with boundary-layer destabilization today
from the lower MO into the OH Valleys. The 00Z NAM appeared
systemically biased too high in its depiction of boundary layer
moisture (1-2 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio) compared to
Saturday evening RAOBs over OK into the Deep South and north in to
the mid MS and OH Valleys. Cloud debris will likely hamper heating
in areas but cloud breaks will lead to weak to moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Deep layer
shear will weaken with equatorward extent with the mid-level ridge
over the Deep South. Several clusters of strong to severe storms
capable of isolated large hail/damaging gusts will probably peak in
intensity during the late afternoon before weakening during the
evening.

...TX...
A composite outflow/front will split the northwest and southeast
halves of TX during the morning. This boundary is forecast to slide
southeast during the day with a convective line probably maintained
across east-central TX. Additional storms may develop during the
day on the trailing edge of the boundary over the Hill Country.
Localized wind damage and hail may accompany the strongest storms.
Farther west, moist easterly upslope flow and strong heating near
the higher terrain will probably yield moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. Strongly veering wind profiles will support the
potential for updraft rotation. Only isolated storm coverage is
expected and thunderstorms will likely diminish by mid evening.

..Smith/Cook.. 05/20/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 01:02 AM
Post #28




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 19 2018, 08:49 PM) *
Today's severe weather threat really failed badly. Makes me wonder if that helps our chances tomorrow.

Probably not. The EML is going to dampen out regardless of whether the storms are severe or just stratiform rain.

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 20 2018, 01:52 AM) *
HRRR goes through tomorrow evening now and has constantly shown a pretty large bowing MCS develop around St. Louis and really bows out as it gets into IN. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC has an enhanced area on the new outlook shortly. Wouldn't surprise me if they stay slight for now either.

Are you surprised that they downgraded it to marginal? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 20 2018, 01:03 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 01:06 AM
Post #29




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 20 2018, 02:02 AM) *
Probably not. The EML is going to dampen out regardless of whether the storms are severe or just stratiform rain.
Are you surprised that they downgraded it to marginal? laugh.gif

Last thing I expected.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 01:15 AM
Post #30




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 20 2018, 02:06 AM) *
Last thing I expected.

I'm not that surprised. MCS's are currently ongoing, MCS expected tomorrow. Don't know if the models are handling everything right right now. Not only might they be mishandling the current MCSs ( = lingering showers/debris clouds), they might be mishandling tomorrows MCS (where it forms and its track)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 12:47 PM
Post #31




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Just like yesterday, new day 2 introduces a slight risk area for parts of IN/OH.

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QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley as well as the southern Rockies Monday.

...Synopsis...

Omega blocking pattern will persist Monday with an upper low closing
off over CA and NV. Farther downstream a shortwave trough will crest
the mean ridge position over the Plains and mid MS Valley region,
and this feature will continue east through the OH Valley and Great
Lakes. At the start of the period a quasi-stationary or warm front
is forecast to extend from the Middle Atlantic westward to a weak
surface low over IL. A cold front should extend southwest from the
low through the lower MS Valley and central TX.

...Ohio Valley region...

Elevated showers and storms may be ongoing over the northern portion
of the OH Valley into the Great Lakes within zone of warm advection
and isentropic lift north of the warm front. South of this boundary
clouds should erode with diabatic heating and a moist surface layer
(upper 60s F dewpoints) resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE during
the afternoon. Weak convective inhibition should promote the
development of storms along and in advance of the weak cold front as
the boundary layer destabilizes. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt from
700-500 mb) winds aloft will overlap the northern portion of the
warm sector, but weak effective bulk shear an unidirectional winds
will promote mostly multicell storm modes including bowing segments.
An exception will be if enough destabilization can occur along warm
front where backed low-level winds may augment low-level hodograph
size and contribute to sufficient effective bulk shear for marginal
supercell structures. Primary threat is expected to be strong to
damaging wind gusts during the afternoon into the early evening, but
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

...Southern Rockies through Southern High Plains...

Modest southwesterly winds aloft will become established over the
higher terrain as upper low settles over southern CA into western
AZ. Southeasterly low-level winds will result in low to mid 50s F
dewpoints advecting through the High Plains beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with
1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely develop over the higher terrain
during the afternoon and subsequently spread east into the High
Plains. Multicell storm modes should be the dominant storm type,
with some storms possibly evolving into clusters/lines as cold pools
congeal. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates with inverted-V
boundary layers will promote a risk for isolated downburst winds,
but hail will also accompany the stronger storms.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Dial.. 05/20/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 01:14 PM
Post #32




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Some semi discrete supercells are breaking out in the mid-MS valley
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 01:30 PM
Post #33




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





There might’ve been a brief TDS. There was a drop in CC that didn’t correspond with a spike in reflectivity but did correspond with gate to gate rotation. The fact it didn’t correspond with a spike in reflectivity could be because it’s so far away from the radar. The drop in CC went away in the next scan.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post May 20 2018, 01:34 PM
Post #34




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This should probably be in the long range thread but I'll just put this here anyway...



With the expected pattern through this week, there is a chance we hit the 0th percentile in terms of tornado reports for 2018 at the end of May. Wow. It really is June or bust at this point.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 01:50 PM
Post #35




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Strange because conditions aren’t really that favorable for tornadoes but now we have at least 5 potentially tornadic supercells

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 20 2018, 01:52 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 02:07 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ May 20 2018, 02:34 PM) *
This should probably be in the long range thread but I'll just put this here anyway...



With the expected pattern through this week, there is a chance we hit the 0th percentile in terms of tornado reports for 2018 at the end of May. Wow. It really is June or bust at this point.

This May reminds me of what happened in 2012. Jet way too far north leading to more wind/hail events. This was certainly not a problem many of us envisioned a month or two ago. Gonna need to see the jet come a bit further south otherwise June will be dominated by heat and MCS events rather than organized systems with concentrated tornado threats.

We’re already seeing a tendency this month to focus severe weather further east than the typical central Plains, owing to the lack of a strong jet stream as I mentioned. Mid-Atlantic has been the place to be recently. Hopefully it shifts back west a bit. But the OV aid just now getting into the heart of our severe weather and tornado season, so I have hope that we’ll have at least a couple big events.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 20 2018, 02:10 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 04:11 PM
Post #37




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Wow a severe storm just popped up over Richmond IN. Might head for me eventually.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 04:18 PM
Post #38




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There's a couple other cells west and northwest of the warned one.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 04:27 PM
Post #39




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 20 2018, 05:11 PM) *
Wow a severe storm just popped up over Richmond IN. Might head for me eventually.

Appears to have a decent hail core.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 04:42 PM
Post #40




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New warning for the cell just W/NW of the other severe cell.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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