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> May 16-20 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 10:11 PM
Post #41




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Tomorrow looks kinda interesting at first glance.

Current MCS weakens to a MCV, tracks up through central IN late tomorrow morning.


Redevelopment south of it.


Winds are very weak where there's redevelopment. Look for a greater severe threat further north in IL/IN/OH.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 20 2018, 10:17 PM
Post #42




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 20 2018, 11:11 PM) *
Current MCS weakens to a MCV, tracks up through central IN late tomorrow morning.


Kinda what happened today I think. Storms fired in SE IN off a boundry left from the storms that died off in C IN this morning.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 10:37 PM
Post #43




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 20 2018, 11:17 PM) *
Kinda what happened today I think. Storms fired in SE IN off a boundry left from the storms that died off in C IN this morning.

HRRR was showing an MCS pushing through the area which obviously didn't happen, but convection allowing models (seen on HREF) handled it well today. At least 2 of the models were showing some SE moving cells, which verified.

They all have some action in the region tomorrow. Disagreement on timing, but that's not a big deal. What I'd want to know is the parameters each model has.

(in order from first to last: HRW NSSL, HRW ARW, HRW NMMB, HRW Nest)






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 20 2018, 10:38 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 20 2018, 11:43 PM
Post #44




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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An interesting thing about tomorrow is that directional shear looks to be decent. Surface winds out of the south or south-southeast, 500mb winds out of the west-southwest or southwest. Generally weak low-level winds will hold down the tornado threat, but it'll be interesting.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 01:42 AM
Post #45




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 21 2018, 12:43 AM) *
An interesting thing about tomorrow is that directional shear looks to be decent. Surface winds out of the south or south-southeast, 500mb winds out of the west-southwest or southwest. Generally weak low-level winds will hold down the tornado threat, but it'll be interesting.

Slight risk shifted a bit north. Would be a decent setup for supercells if instability and shear were a bit stronger.


QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible across the Ohio Valley as well as the Southern Rockies
today. Damaging wind and large hail will likely be the main severe
threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over CA will evolve into a closed low and meander
southeastward towards the lower CO river valley by daybreak Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a weakening shortwave trough over the middle-upper MS
Valley will move into the Great Lakes while a convectively related
disturbance over the middle MS Valley Sunday night moves into the
southern Great Lakes by early afternoon. A residual frontal zone
will advance northward during the day across the OH Valley.

...OH Valley...
Early day cloud cover and a few showers/thunderstorms are forecast
across the southern Great Lakes in association with an MCV. Model
guidance suggests this activity will weaken during the late morning
with pockets of heating strongest to the south of a warm frontal
zone advancing north into northern IN/OH. Surface dewpoints in the
middle 60s will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy (250 J/kg to
1000 J/kg MLCAPE) from north to south despite weak mid-level lapse
rates. Models show the southern portion of 30-40 kt 500 mb flow
mainly from I-70 northward into the southern Great Lakes---perhaps
augmented by the MCV over the northern half of IN and OH. It is
near and north of I-70 where forecast hodographs may enlarge during
the afternoon. Multicells capable of primarily wind damage will
seemingly be the primary risk over the lower OH Valley but farther
north, stronger low- and deep-layer shear may support a mix of
multicells and weak supercells capable of low-level rotation.
Isolated strong to severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may develop
before this activity weakens during the evening.

...Southern Rockies...
Strong heating and moist southeasterly upslope flow will contribute
to moderate instability by mid afternoon. Although the upper trough
will remain largely displaced to the west of the region, local
erosion of the cap is expected by mid-late afternoon. Isolated
severe thunderstorms are forecast with a hail/wind risk. One of the
limiting factors is generally 30-kt or less of 0-6 km shear.
However, some model soundings suggest slightly stronger deep-layer
shear owing to strong southeasterly low-level flow. A portion of
this area (Far West TX into south-central NM near the Sacramento
mountains) may have a greater risk and concentration of robust
storms ---possibly resulting in upgraded probabilities in a later
outlook.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 21 2018, 10:08 AM
Post #46




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Back from Cuba and just in time for tonight.. looking good for boomers.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 12:10 PM
Post #47




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Some nice destabilization going on. Got some good directional shear too. Just wish the winds were a little stronger.

Notice the southeasterly winds in east-central IN and western OH. That's below southwesterly low-level winds and west-southwesterly winds further aloft.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 21 2018, 12:14 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 21 2018, 12:14 PM
Post #48




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From: Beavercreek, OH
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Read an article that today is the 4 year anniversary of the I-70/ I-75 historic flooding in 2014. almost 5" of rain in 2 hours from training thunderstorms. I also remember a training event that happened a year or so before 2014. Seems like I-70 and along the OH River are training valleys for T-storms.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 12:38 PM
Post #49




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Cumulus clouds are popping in SE IN. SW OH has 2000-2500 SBCAPE now. Best CAPE/shear overlap is closer to Dayton.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post May 21 2018, 12:59 PM
Post #50




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Interested to see how this one pans out. Most of the models have some kind of feature riding along US-30 late this evening just north of the front. Just a tad too late for me, but Van Wert to Wooster often do well with these Western Ohio events.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 01:13 PM
Post #51




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Yeah looks like north of I70 is where the fun may be. HRRR showing a longer lived cell or bow echo up there which makes sense because of the better shear.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 01:26 PM
Post #52




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Rotating cell near Athens

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 21 2018, 01:26 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 21 2018, 01:51 PM
Post #53




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From: Beavercreek, OH
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Nice CAPE here, shear to the north though.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 01:52 PM
Post #54




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Cells are popping in southwestern IN... one just west of Bloomington.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 21 2018, 03:26 PM
Post #55




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Watch possible.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas affected...Parts of the mid Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 212015Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southern/central Indiana this afternoon, before moving into western
Ohio this evening. A few could become severe, with a primary threat
of damaging winds. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Aided by broad/modest forcing for ascent along the
southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow, a
corridor of more vigorous convection has organized from western
Kentucky to southern Indiana late this afternoon. These cells appear
to be focused by differential heating on the edge of a mid/upper
cloud canopy associated with a warm-advection corridor ahead of the
primary cyclone. Regardless, cells over Kentucky are likely too far
south for sufficient organization (owing to weaker flow aloft) to
pose a sustained severe threat. Visible satellite data are
consistent with this conclusion, in that they show rather circular
anvil evolution, which would suggest weak mid/upper storm-relative
flow.

Farther north, although mixed-layer buoyancy is not as robust, weak
southerly warm/moist advection and adequate insolation are yielding
upwards of 500-1000 J/kg at present. Mid-level flow is slightly
stronger than points farther south as well, and recent KIND VWP data
sampled bulk 0-6km shear of 30-35 kt. Therefore, the strongest cells
may organize into occasional multicell or weak supercell structures
(especially as they reach greater boundary-layer moisture near the
IN/OH border) through early evening. Thereafter, an evolution into
localized bowing segments is possible, given relatively straight
hodographs. Such evolution would promote a few damaging gusts as the
primary threat, and convective trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

..Picca/Weiss.. 05/21/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 03:38 PM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,558
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





I70 is looking good


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post May 21 2018, 03:54 PM
Post #57




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From: KCAK
Member No.: 32,065





Watching for development in the Lima/Findlay/surrounding areas. More in line with the HRRR's thinking from 12-13Z rather than the past few runs, and also in line with the HREF models.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 03:54 PM
Post #58




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





A few cells south of Indy are showing some organization, perhaps even some rotation.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 21 2018, 03:55 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 21 2018, 04:01 PM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,565
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





T-storm watch until 11pm per weather radio.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 04:01 PM
Post #60




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,558
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Severe tstorm watch is up



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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