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> May 23-? Plains/Midwest Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2018, 11:54 PM
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Yet another trough is going to dip into the west US and cut off from the jet stream. This'll allow for disturbances to run from the trough. There'll be strong to extreme instability in the Plains for at least a week. However, the mid-level winds are quite weak but nocturnal LLJ tries to make up for it.



There's a days on the GFS that shows a hole in EHI values which is co-located with upward vertical motion via vertical velocities... so that's likely an MCS.

But like I said... lots of instability, weak mid-level winds, medium to strong low-level winds east of the dryline. Uncertain if the low-level winds will help with storm organization. Might have a more concentrated/greater severe or tornado threat when the trough moves into the Plains. Further east, no credible sign of any focused severe threat... though days 9 and 10 look very interesting for the Mississippi valley. Until then, looks like the standard daily popup storms with a small microburst/hail threat.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 23 2018, 08:00 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 23 2018, 03:16 PM
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Start date should maybe be today since there is a severe threat today and tomorrow?


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 24 2018, 12:32 AM
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Looking for a ridge topper sometime between May 31-June 4. Both operational models show a south-central ridge conducive for serious heat in the Plains and Midwest. They disagree what the rest of the pattern looks like.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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joseph507123
post May 24 2018, 11:07 PM
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Stormy around me. All missing though.

I don't understand what the SPC is thinking with their outlook today. Nothing hinted to North Dakota and NW MN being hit with storms and they thought so.

Outlook Vs report vs models

Attached Image
Models all had Minnesota hit.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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snowlover2
post May 25 2018, 01:55 PM
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Looking like the remnants of Alberto will come up through the OV. 12z Euro/Ukie/GGEM all bring it north through the IN/OH border area.


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StL weatherjunki...
post May 25 2018, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ May 25 2018, 12:07 AM) *
Stormy around me. All missing though.

I don't understand what the SPC is thinking with their outlook today. Nothing hinted to North Dakota and NW MN being hit with storms and they thought so.

Outlook Vs report vs models

Attached Image
Models all had Minnesota hit.

This post is a real head-scratcher ...

From my point of view the SPC forecast verified pretty well. Most of the storm reports were in or nearby the slight risk area, except for a handful of wind reports in the Minneapolis area.

A quick glance at the May, 24th 00z GFS shows that a. there was a hint that ND and NW MN would get storms and b. model support existed for the SPC outlook (that verified well IMHO)

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: May 25 2018, 02:06 PM
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post May 25 2018, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 25 2018, 02:55 PM) *
Looking like the remnants of Alberto will come up through the OV. 12z Euro/Ukie/GGEM all bring it north through the IN/OH border area.

Probably more of a flood/flash flood threat, maybe some isolated spin-ups, but I think the storm track is still highly questionable. Definitely something to watch over the next couple days though.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 03:40 PM
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Storms are popping in the Texas panhandle. Definitely a good call by SPC to put 15% hatched hail. Conditions very favorable for supercells with big hail. Very low tornado threat, at least for now, due to high LCL and weak low-level winds.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 25 2018, 03:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 04:39 PM
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Appears there's a bit of a cap in the panhandle. Still plenty of time left in the day.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 05:03 PM
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A cell has really exploded in intensity west of Fort Worth. This is happening on the western flank of the outflow boundary of the morning/early afternoon MCS. Surface winds are backed as a result of it, enhancing the supercell potential.

LCL is a few hundred meters lower than in the panhandle, but low-level winds are just as weak. Low-level winds should increase in the coming hours, and the LCL should lower. Wonder if there's gonna be a surprise tornado threat here.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 05:26 PM
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Or not


QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...TX Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252225Z - 260000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Very large hail is possible during the next hour or so
before the primary severe threat transitions to strong wind gusts as
the storm becomes more outflow dominant.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm initiated quickly across Palo Pinto
county in area where surface convergence was maximized along the
well-defined outflow from the decaying storm complex over
east-central TX. Very warm surface temperatures and modest moisture
beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures support moderate
instability across the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE
around 2000 J/kg. Instability decreases with western extent where
deep boundary layer mixing has reduced surface dewpoints. Surface
winds are fairly weak, generally easterly/southeasterly at 5 to 10
kt, but these backed surface winds beneath moderate northwesterly
flow aloft support 0-6 km bulk shear around 40 kt.

Overall environment supports the potential for very large hail (i.e.
greater than 2 inches), particularly given the discrete nature of
the storm. Bunkers supercell motion suggests a due southward storm
motion but the influence of the southwestward progressing outflow
boundary will likely result in a more southwestward storm motion.
Given the current strength of the storm's updraft and deeply mixed
downstream environment, strong wind gusts are possible once the
storm becomes outflow dominant.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 25 2018, 06:03 PM) *
A cell has really exploded in intensity west of Fort Worth. This is happening on the western flank of the outflow boundary of the morning/early afternoon MCS. Surface winds are backed as a result of it, enhancing the supercell potential.

LCL is a few hundred meters lower than in the panhandle, but low-level winds are just as weak. Low-level winds should increase in the coming hours, and the LCL should lower. Wonder if there's gonna be a surprise tornado threat here.



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 25 2018, 06:26 PM) *
Or not


Was I on to something or just got lucky? PDS tornado warning, non-confirmed tornado but it's large and extremely dangerous if it is on the ground
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 09:27 PM
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?
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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WeatherMonger
post May 26 2018, 08:26 AM
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Thought this was pretty freaking cool, would love to see this al9ng with some wicked mammatus clouds

QUOTE
JELLYFISH SPRITES OVER OKLAHOMA: Last night, May 24th, a swarm of luminous jellyfish appeared over Oklahoma. "A swarm of jellyfish *sprites*, that is," says Paul Smith, who photographed them rising above an intense thunderstorm near Oklahoma City.

"The sprites were about 80 miles away from me," says Smith. "At that distance I could see over the tops of the storm cells where the jellyfish appear. I've photographed many sprites from 200 to 300 miles away. These, however, were unusually nearby, and they are my best pictures yet."

Sprites are an exotic form of upward directed lightning. Although the forms have been seen for at least a century, many scientists did not believe they existed until after 1989 when sprites were photographed by cameras onboard the space shuttle. Now "sprite chasers" like Smith routinely photograph them from their own homes.

"I have been recording sprites since last summer when I accidentally caught a few during the Perseid meteor shower," says Smith. "I have a couple of hundred events on camera now and I am out almost every night there are storms in my vicinity. This month I have driven for five hours some nights trying to find a clear view over active cells."

Oklahoma is the epicenter of a region that we call "Sprite Alley"--a corridor stretching across the US Great Plains where intense thunderstorms produce lots of upward directed lightning. Already this year we have received reports of sprites and their stronger cousins, Gigantic Jets, from Texas to Nebraska. And summer thunderstorm season isn't even fully underway yet.

Some researchers think that sprites may be linked to cosmic rays: Subatomic particles from deep space strike the top of Earth's atmosphere, producing secondary electrons that trigger the upward bolts. If this is true, then sprites could multiply in the months and years ahead as cosmic rays intensify due to the decline of the solar cycle.


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 08:36 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 26 2018, 09:26 AM) *
Thought this was pretty freaking cool, would love to see this al9ng with some wicked mammatus clouds

Saw a sort of documentary on them. The first time they were proven to exist was 1989, and the first color photograph of them was in 1994. Think of how long sprites have been occurring without us knowing what they are. I mean, I'm slightly older than the first colored photo of them. It's crazy.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 26 2018, 08:37 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 26 2018, 11:17 AM
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Latest model runs show Alberto remnants tracking through W/C IN. Being on the right side of the storm makes me wonder about possible severe. SPC does make a mention of it.

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through
roughly Day 6 (Thursday), after which consistency in solutions to
significantly diverge/degenerate through the end of the period.

Initially, northeastward ejection and concurrent weakening of the
former western U.S. trough is expected to continue, as it shifts
into/across the northern and central Plains Day 4 (Tuesday), and
then eastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes Day 5 (Wednesday) -- when
a progged merging with the remnants of Alberto is indicated.

Meanwhile farther west, troughing is progged to dig southeastward
out of the northeast Pacific and become re-established across the
western U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, downstream
ridging should amplify over the central U.S. in response, in the
wake of the eastward-progressing Alberto/mid-latitude-trough merger.
Beyond Day 6, evolution -- and possible eastward ejection -- of the
new western U.S. trough becomes variable/uncertain amongst various
models, and thus forecast confidence wanes beyond midweek.

Some severe risk will likely exist Day 4 across the northern and
central Plains, ahead of the ejecting western feature and associated
advance of a weak cold front. However, with multiple days of
potentially widespread intervening convection across the north
central U.S., uncertainties preclude highlighting a risk area at
this juncture. Days 5-6, the merging of the upper trough with
remnants of Alberto cast additional uncertainty into the convective
forecast, and thus once again will defer until later outlooks to
give a more confident assessment of severe potential into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley areas.


..Goss.. 05/26/2018


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snowlover2
post May 26 2018, 02:58 PM
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Of course the part of the line of storms moving into Dayton weakens enough so there's no thunder and lightning. Still got some heavy rain and gusty winds.


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Snow____
post May 26 2018, 03:32 PM
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Felt like that line should have had a warning on it. Watch it go warned a minute after us. Those winds were strong. I made sure to go outside for that show. Torrential rains and winds easily gusting over 45. I know warning is 60 but can’t say for sure if they gusted to 60 or not. Not much thunder and lightning but I did get some.


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snowlover2
post May 26 2018, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 26 2018, 03:58 PM) *
Of course the part of the line of storms moving into Dayton weakens enough so there's no thunder and lightning. Still got some heavy rain and gusty winds.

More storms about to move in from the WNW. Lets see if they hold up.


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snowlover2
post May 26 2018, 06:17 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ May 26 2018, 04:32 PM) *
Felt like that line should have had a warning on it. Watch it go warned a minute after us. Those winds were strong. I made sure to go outside for that show. Torrential rains and winds easily gusting over 45. I know warning is 60 but can’t say for sure if they gusted to 60 or not. Not much thunder and lightning but I did get some.

Appears it should have been. Just noticed 3 wind damage storm reports just north of Cincy.


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