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> May 23-? Plains/Midwest Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ColoradoChinook
post May 26 2018, 08:51 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 26 2018, 07:26 AM) *
Thought this was pretty freaking cool, would love to see this al9ng with some wicked mammatus clouds


Those pictures are red sprites are great. I heard one time they were trying to study these by flying jets nearby and taking pictures from the ISS. On a funny note, I bet that if you told someone that these were red aliens flying down from outer space, a certain part of the population would believe that.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 09:08 PM
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Had a nice storm roll through today. The worst of the rain missed us but we got 2 different gust fronts and probably an hour or hour and a half of lightning.

As far as the severe threat in the medium to long range, it sucks because we can only really rely on Euro... i.e., now more than ever. GFS is still stuck with making some ridiculously high temps for the southern Plains, which no doubt is making the EML stronger than it's going to be. Weaker EML = more storms and outflow boundaries = more storms (again) = more clouds = weaker lapse rates = less instability

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 26 2018, 09:09 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 26 2018, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 26 2018, 10:08 PM) *
Had a nice storm roll through today. The worst of the rain missed us but we got 2 different gust fronts and probably an hour or hour and a half of lightning.

As far as the severe threat in the medium to long range, it sucks because we can only really rely on Euro... i.e., now more than ever. GFS is still stuck with making some ridiculously high temps for the southern Plains, which no doubt is making the EML stronger than it's going to be. Weaker EML = more storms and outflow boundaries = more storms (again) = more clouds = weaker lapse rates = less instability

Thoughts on severe/tornado spin ups on Wednesday as the center of Alberto appears to be moving just west of us?


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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 09:33 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 26 2018, 10:20 PM) *
Thoughts on severe/tornado spin ups on Wednesday as the center of Alberto appears to be moving just west of us?

Needless to say path and timing are very important.

As usual with tropical cyclones, LCLs are low and decent low-level SRH. 18z GFS is a bit weird because it has unidirectional low-level winds corresponding with the best instability. 06z and 12z didn't do that. If 18z was just being ridiculous, then there's definitely a shot for an afternoon spinup east/north/northeast of the low... wherever that may be.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post May 26 2018, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 26 2018, 07:17 PM) *
Appears it should have been. Just noticed 3 wind damage storm reports just north of Cincy.

I thought those winds were mighty strong. It was a good line.

Nice development out in Indy. Moving slow. Don’t know if it’ll hold before reaching us.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 10:27 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 26 2018, 10:33 PM) *
Needless to say path and timing are very important.

As usual with tropical cyclones, LCLs are low and decent low-level SRH. 18z GFS is a bit weird because it has unidirectional low-level winds corresponding with the best instability. 06z and 12z didn't do that. If 18z was just being ridiculous, then there's definitely a shot for an afternoon spinup east/north/northeast of the low... wherever that may be.

Another thing is pay attention to the tornado activity in the days prior. Usually a good indicator.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 11:58 PM
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00z is more like 06z and 12z. Tornado threat would be greatest in Ohio excluding SW


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 27 2018, 01:02 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 27 2018, 12:58 AM) *
00z is more like 06z and 12z. Tornado threat would be greatest in Ohio excluding SW

Considering the track, I would think E/SE Ohio would be less favorable.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Juniorrr
post May 27 2018, 10:25 AM
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Had a nice tall lightning show last night from distant storms. Interested to see what Alberto will bring since its modeled to be to our WNW which puts us in a favorable sector for wind patterns.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: May 27 2018, 10:25 AM
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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 01:39 PM
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So close, yesterday had redevelopment in close proximity to previous storms. Hoping to get one to pop up overhead.


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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 01:40 PM
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Got another one starting to pop just to my SE
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snowlover2
post May 27 2018, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 27 2018, 02:40 PM) *
Got another one starting to pop just to my SE

Got a warning on it.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:15 PM
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Storm to my NE collapsed emitting a ring shaped outflow. Hopefully can trigger a few cells. Must be some capping around as well.



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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:32 PM
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Boom goes the outflow. Needs to expand though. Gonna hurt to miss one so close

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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:35 PM
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Forgot the Springfield mile was today, big dirt track motorcycle race, makes perfect sense to get a good storm. Makes my odds a little better.
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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:38 PM
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Starting to expand WSW. I'm circled area


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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:42 PM
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I'm bout to blow this thread up laugh.gif

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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:43 PM
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Spotter confirmed hail for warning

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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:47 PM
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Thibk the hail core will miss me well east, see what happens I guess. Nice to hear thunder though
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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:56 PM
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Can't make this up laugh.gif front edge is eroding as it tries to go over me. Distant thunder and light rain with big drops. Nice temp drop though

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