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> May 23-? Plains/Midwest Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 02:58 PM
Post #41




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Now some pea sized hail
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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 03:02 PM
Post #42




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Dime size hailstorm
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styropyro
post May 27 2018, 03:27 PM
Post #43




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 27 2018, 01:15 PM) *
Storm to my NE collapsed emitting a ring shaped outflow. Hopefully can trigger a few cells. Must be some capping around as well.
[attachment=356320:20180527_141317.jpg]

That outflow was one of the coolest I've seen on radar! Very circular. It seems to have died out before making to me though. I'm crossing my fingers that a storm pops up over me...my garden could use the rain (and a dime-sized hailstorm would be a nice consolation prize for the lack of severe weather we've had this season)
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WeatherMonger
post May 27 2018, 03:31 PM
Post #44




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That was the best storm I've had in quite some time. 5 minutes of pea to dime sized hail and guessing 45-50mph winds for a brief time. Street is littered with leaves and small branches. Was never warned for wind and never seen any warning criteria hail.

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joseph507123
post May 27 2018, 06:02 PM
Post #45




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Amazing tornado north of Cheyenne WY

Attached Image

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From Reed Timmer
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--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 9

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 27 2018, 10:09 PM
Post #46




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Dang, I really missed the Wyoming banger today. That tornado eye is awesome.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 28 2018, 11:09 AM
Post #47




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I don't think timing is in our favor for the remnants band, NW/NE OH and Michigan seem to be in the right spot for now.
QUOTE
...Great Lakes...
The remnants of Alberto will move north through parts of the central
Great Lakes. Stronger low-level flow in the northeast quadrant will
enlarge hodographs. Lapse rates will be poor but very moist low
levels and the background low-level wind field may support a few
weakly rotating updrafts coincident with the diurnal cycle.


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: May 28 2018, 11:12 AM
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snowlover2
post May 28 2018, 02:55 PM
Post #48




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ILN now mentioning possible isolated tornadoes on Wednesday especially the west cwa.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
332 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018



.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The main focus of the period will be the remnants of Alberto.
Consensus forecast is to lift it northward through Alabama and
into central TN. Tuesday morning should be dry, but as the
tropical moisture reaches the fa by afternoon, scattered
showers and some thunderstorms will develop, with the best
chances in the CVG tri-state. Increasing cloud cover will begin
to hold temperatures down as highs will range from the upper 80s
in the north to the mid 80s in nrn KY.

Tuesday night the remains of Alberto head towards wrn KY. This
leaves the fa under disorganized lift. Scattered convection
will be possible, because of the nature of the atmosphere, but
kept PoPs in the chance category. The tropical airmass across
the region will only allow temperatures to fall to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The center of the remnants of Alberto will move across western
Indiana on Wednesday. Although the center is not expected to move
across the area, showers and some thunderstorms are expected on
Wednesday as moisture is drawn up into the region. With the
remnants of Alberto, there will be some isolated potential for
tornadoes, primarily across western portions of the region.
In
addition, some heavy rainfall will also be possible. The clouds and
precipitation on Wednesday will keep temperatures lower than they
have been recently with high temperatures generally in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post May 28 2018, 03:38 PM
Post #49




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IND thinking progression of Alberto will be slower than modeled.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
417 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018



.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Mainly Dry weather still looks in play for Tuesday. The GFS and
and NAM continue to push the tropical system northward toward the
Ohio Valley. However best moisture still has they to arrive.
Forecast soundings continue to show mainly a dry column with some
convective possibilities in the afternoon. Forecast soundings show
attainable convective temperatures in the mid 80s with moderate
CAPE values over 1300 J/KG. Given this...will start Tuesday out as
dry and try to trend toward chance pops for the
afternoon as convection begins. Will trend best pops across the
southern parts of the forecast area as best moisture and
instability will found there.

On Tuesday Night...GFS forecast soundings begin to show deep
saturation. Good lift appears to arrive as the tropical low is
expected to reach western kentucky and the associated flow aloft
shows a negatively tilted upper trough over Indiana. PWATS surge
to over 1.90 inches. Thus will trend pops higher than the builder
blends on Tuesday night as these features arrive. Given the
expected clouds sand rain...will trend lows at or above the
forecast builder blends.

Wednesday should be a wet day. The GFS and NAm suggest the
tropical low will continue its progression across the state with
ample moisture. Forecast soundings remain deeply saturated while
PWAT rise even more. PWATS surge over 2.00 inches through the day
on Wednesday. Will trend toward 90-100 pops with these favorable
dynamics in place. Also given the expected rain temps should be a
bit cooler than the forecast builder blends. Caveat with tropical
systems...progression could be a bit slower than the model
anticipate. The GFS and NAM often trend to progress tropical
system progress northward faster than what actually occurs. This
being said...a 6-12 hour delay in the progression would not be
surprising.


At this moment the GFS and NAM push the upper system out of the
area on Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile aloft an upper
trough still remains in place and another short wave appears to
approaching from the northwest within the flow. With the departure
of the tropical system...forecast soundings appear to begin to
dry out and show more convective instability by Thursday with
attainable convective temps...steep lapse rates and CAPE over 3000
J/KG. Thus given this...along with possibility of a slower
progression of the tropical system...we will need to keep pops in
the forecast on Wednesday night and Thursday. Will stick close to
the forecast builder blends on Temps at this point due to
uncertainty with the progression.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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WeatherMonger
post May 28 2018, 08:08 PM
Post #50




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Just gonna miss me to my south


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 28 2018, 08:32 PM
Post #51




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From no tornado warning to a confirmed tornado over a town. That's not good.

QUOTE
Tornado Warning
OKC007-139-290215-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0003.180529T0127Z-180529T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
827 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Beaver County in the Panhandle of Oklahoma...
Southeastern Texas County in the Panhandle of Oklahoma...

* Until 915 PM CDT

* At 827 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Hardesty, or 14
miles east of Guymon, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Hardesty, Bryans Corner, Baker, Adams and Boyd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3651 10130 3665 10140 3693 10099 3663 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 239DEG 26KT 3664 10123

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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melissa from ill...
post May 28 2018, 08:51 PM
Post #52




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 28 2018, 08:08 PM) *
Just gonna miss me to my south


Attached Image


And all i got was a little lightning and a couple rumbles of thunder. no wind, no rain, nothing. lame.


--------------------
"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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snowlover2
post May 28 2018, 09:58 PM
Post #53




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3K NAM popping many cells on Wednesday in IN/OH/MI.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2018, 12:10 AM
Post #54




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 28 2018, 10:58 PM) *
3K NAM popping many cells on Wednesday in IN/OH/MI.

Interesting.

FWIW




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 29 2018, 12:55 AM
Post #55




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 29 2018, 01:10 AM) *
Interesting.

FWIW



The timing looks better with it moving north slower than what it showed before.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2018, 02:00 PM
Post #56




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Tornado watch imminent. A cell has popped from a remnant outflow boundary from this mornings MCS


QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Southwestern/South-central
Kansas...northwestern/north-central Oklahoma...and portions of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 291855Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as
convection increases in intensity and coverage across the discussion
area this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Objective analyses and satellite indicate an
increasingly unstable airmass along and south of a remnant outflow
boundary left behind from earlier convection very near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border area. The pre-convective environment was
weakly capped and characterized by strong instability (2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE) and deep shear values around 40-50 kt, favoring
organization. A few convective attempts have already been noted
along the outflow about 50 miles south of Dodge City, and as storms
continue to develop in this corridor and interact with the remnant
outflow, all modes of severe will become increasingly likely,
including a few tornadoes and very large (2"+) hail.

Given the aforementioned convective trends, a Tornado Watch will
likely be needed shortly.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 29 2018, 02:24 PM
Post #57




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3K NAM looks promising for Thursday night.

Attached Image


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2018, 02:38 PM
Post #58




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 29 2018, 03:24 PM) *
3K NAM looks promising for Thursday night.

Attached Image

Interesting. Alberto moves out, shortwave moves in. Moisture will certainly be present.

Cells in the central Plains are having trouble being sustained. Give it an hour or two.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2018, 02:54 PM
Post #59




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Attempt #2(?) at convection south of Dodge City. Watches going up all over the place.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2018, 03:17 PM
Post #60




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 29 2018, 03:54 PM) *
Attempt #2(?) at convection south of Dodge City. Watches going up all over the place.

Looks like this attempt was successful... starting to get some strong clear air inflow. Also some hail signatures becoming evident.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 77 (Last: 6/18/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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