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> May 26-28 MidAtl/NE Holiday Weekend Tropical Rains/Severe Potential, Forecasts and Observations
MD Blue Ridge
post May 28 2018, 07:31 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ May 28 2018, 03:34 PM) *
Nah that's an interesting explanation. Per the wiki site they had over 10 feet of water rush down the street, with 9.71" of rain falling in two hours.

That stretch of the culvert that is underground is about 150 yards. This is what that part of the street normally looked like.[attachment=356361:ellicot.PNG]


Anyone who has driven thru old town Ellicott city can see why it floods so easily. Just in a bad spot with lots of high ground above it. Built in what looks like an old river bed.

With a river running under it. God bless that guardsmen.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: May 28 2018, 07:42 PM


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stxprowl
post May 28 2018, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 28 2018, 08:31 PM) *
Anyone who has driven thru old town Ellicott city can see why it floods so easily. Just in a bad spot with lots of high ground above it. Built in what looks like an old river bed.

With a river running under it. God bless that guardsmen.

Ya I think I see the problem now.
http://www.floodmap.net/Elevation/ElevationMap/?gi=4354265
Attached Image
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Ryan Duff
post May 29 2018, 05:14 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 28 2018, 03:07 PM) *
A simple "youre wrong LUCC" would have sufficed.

laugh.gif


Haha! I was trying not to be mean to LUCC. There are far worse offenders. wink.gif

I was just cranky yesterday.


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LUCC
post May 29 2018, 08:40 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 28 2018, 03:07 PM) *
A simple "youre wrong LUCC" would have sufficed.

laugh.gif

LMAO

They classified the flood in 2016 as a 'thousand year flood event' and this was as bad or worse so wouldn't that be two 'thousand year flood events' in a matter of two years? Per 'their' classifications obviously. rolleyes.gif

'They' are wrong..... dry.gif

This post has been edited by LUCC: May 29 2018, 08:41 AM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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phillyfan
post May 29 2018, 08:57 AM
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Still locked in with the clouds here, haven't had any sun since Saturday, yet no rain out of all the clouds. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by phillyfan: May 29 2018, 08:57 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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phillyfan
post May 29 2018, 01:02 PM
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Late morning the clouds broke. Now up to 86, may get close to 90 after all.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Undertakerson
post May 29 2018, 03:30 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ May 29 2018, 09:40 AM) *
LMAO

They classified the flood in 2016 as a 'thousand year flood event' and this was as bad or worse so wouldn't that be two 'thousand year flood events' in a matter of two years? Per 'their' classifications obviously. rolleyes.gif

'They' are wrong..... dry.gif

I'm not taking any sides here, but I did note that Abrams on TWC try to explain this morning....

What they are saying is that, in any given year, there is a 0.1% CH of such a flood within that year. She did say "there should be another zero in that number" which I didn't know if she meant 0.1% or .01%CH.

Seemed like gobbeldy gook to me - so I just shrugged and said, "so much for numbers" - bottom line is that there was devastation and loss of life, regardless of how often it does/should happen. sad.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 29 2018, 03:30 PM
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EstorilM
post May 29 2018, 03:49 PM
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Wow I just pulled the flash flood warning for later in the evening from the Ellicott area issued via Sterling WFO. Pretty scary stuff. mellow.gif
QUOTE
At 620 PM EDT, numerous reports of significant flash flooding have
been reported, especially in Ellicott City. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS MOVING BACK INTO THIS AREA. EVEN THOUGH RAIN HAS RECENTLY
DECREASED, RESPONDERS AND LOCALS WHO ARE IN ELLICOTT CITY MUST
RETURN TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY! A THIRD ROUND OF FLOODING IS
IMMINENT! IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE AREA, STAY AWAY! THIS IS A
CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!
YOU MUST TAKE ACTION NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM ANYWHERE WHERE WATER
IS OR COULD BE!

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ellicott City and Catonsville
and is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
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Ryan Duff
post May 29 2018, 05:14 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 29 2018, 04:30 PM) *
I'm not taking any sides here, but I did note that Abrams on TWC try to explain this morning....

What they are saying is that, in any given year, there is a 0.1% CH of such a flood within that year. She did say "there should be another zero in that number" which I didn't know if she meant 0.1% or .01%CH.

Seemed like gobbeldy gook to me - so I just shrugged and said, "so much for numbers" - bottom line is that there was devastation and loss of life, regardless of how often it does/should happen. sad.gif


Reposting this relevant snippet from yesterday...

QUOTE
Just because it's a "thousand year flood" event doesn't mean it won't happen again for 1000 years. If the same were applied to other things, there wouldn't be any multiple time lottery winners and nobody would get struck by lightning twice.


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 29 2018, 06:16 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 29 2018, 04:30 PM) *
I'm not taking any sides here, but I did note that Abrams on TWC try to explain this morning....

What they are saying is that, in any given year, there is a 0.1% CH of such a flood within that year. She did say "there should be another zero in that number" which I didn't know if she meant 0.1% or .01%CH.

Seemed like gobbeldy gook to me - so I just shrugged and said, "so much for numbers" - bottom line is that there was devastation and loss of life, regardless of how often it does/should happen. sad.gif


Using that idea of 1 in one thousand chance. 1/1000 you get 0.001 multiplying by 100 to turn into a percent you get 0.1% of that occurring within any given year.

I do agree with Duff though probabilities are always being misconstrued for only occurring within the time interval of such an event. While it is pretty rare to get such an event happening once let alone twice in a couple years is rather crazy its not improbable or else there wouldnt be a chance.

Im sure we will also see from some individuals that these extremes are happening more frequently when in reality they arent becoming more frequent just becoming more noticeable for public to see via social media and coverage of these systems.

Im surprised we have not seen more events like Harvey occur more along the gulf coast considering they are about the same latitude of many other tropical locations who tend to get copious amounts of rain from tropical systems in a slow moving atmospheric region "the doldrums". I mean look at india with its monsoon, more along the lines of latitude as say miami and cuba, im sure cuba has also received tons of rain with alberto just recently with them also having mountainous terrain as an enhancer just was not covered with many news outlets which is unfortunate. Seems to be only populated areas and first world countries tend to get coverage on extremes.

We just need to better plan for development in areas that can easily suffer from flood concerns choosing areas will not always be perfect but that is why they have flood surveyors and terrain maps, which probably need updated in many locals, to better help. Of course no one expects to ever get something like this to occur but better to be prepared then have to go through it multiple times and keep folks out of harms way as well as the rescuers who have to brave the conditions.

End of rant sorry didnt mean to throw it all in but just something I have been thinking about for awhile as im sure others have. Back to weather are we opening another thread for the upcoming rain potential or extending this one considering its about the same airmass we have been dealing with and from a lot of the same factors that have caused these rains.


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MD Blue Ridge
post May 29 2018, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 29 2018, 07:16 PM) *
Using that idea of 1 in one thousand chance. 1/1000 you get 0.001 multiplying by 100 to turn into a percent you get 0.1% of that occurring within any given year.

I do agree with Duff though probabilities are always being misconstrued for only occurring within the time interval of such an event. While it is pretty rare to get such an event happening once let alone twice in a couple years is rather crazy its not improbable or else there wouldnt be a chance.

Im sure we will also see from some individuals that these extremes are happening more frequently when in reality they arent becoming more frequent just becoming more noticeable for public to see via social media and coverage of these systems.

Im surprised we have not seen more events like Harvey occur more along the gulf coast considering they are about the same latitude of many other tropical locations who tend to get copious amounts of rain from tropical systems in a slow moving atmospheric region "the doldrums". I mean look at india with its monsoon, more along the lines of latitude as say miami and cuba, im sure cuba has also received tons of rain with alberto just recently with them also having mountainous terrain as an enhancer just was not covered with many news outlets which is unfortunate. Seems to be only populated areas and first world countries tend to get coverage on extremes.

We just need to better plan for development in areas that can easily suffer from flood concerns choosing areas will not always be perfect but that is why they have flood surveyors and terrain maps, which probably need updated in many locals, to better help. Of course no one expects to ever get something like this to occur but better to be prepared then have to go through it multiple times and keep folks out of harms way as well as the rescuers who have to brave the conditions.

End of rant sorry didnt mean to throw it all in but just something I have been thinking about for awhile as im sure others have. Back to weather are we opening another thread for the upcoming rain potential or extending this one considering its about the same airmass we have been dealing with and from a lot of the same factors that have caused these rains.


Go on.....


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KENNYP2339
post May 30 2018, 04:43 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 29 2018, 07:16 PM) *
We just need to better plan for development in areas that can easily suffer from flood concerns choosing areas will not always be perfect but that is why they have flood surveyors and terrain maps, which probably need updated in many locals, to better help. Of course no one expects to ever get something like this to occur but better to be prepared then have to go through it multiple times and keep folks out of harms way as well as the rescuers who have to brave the conditions.

Your rescuers and local government, For my town we had (2) events in 2011 that were like no other, water came through were water has not been seen since the 1960's. We had a extreme tropical /thunderstorm training rain in the beginning of August that year, followed by nearly a foot of rain from Irene. Mudslides, washed out roads, blocked culverts became to familiar that summer. But us guys at the FD were smart enough to take a township paper gis map and mark trouble area's and more importantly mark the roads / access area's that faired well through both events. The map was then copied and sent to all our FD's, ambulance buildings, town hall, police dept, and dpw. This is part of our strategy plan for when a heavy rain event is forecasted in our area. The police do a great job "monitoring trouble area's during scale events" The emergency services know how to respond to certain area's, DPW knows what roads will close first and what drainage area's need to be cleared / checked. It works, but it took an event to get caught with our pants down to build off of. The weather forecast helps, but its only a tool in a big tool bag.
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