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> June 1-? MidAtl/NE Stationary Front & Continued Flood Risk
EstorilM
post May 29 2018, 03:31 PM
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It appears that the ingredients for a potentially serious flood threat to areas of the Mid Atlantic are starting to come into play - yet again.

Obviously the risk is already high, with saturated soil and primary rivers levels still elevated from 6-8" of rain last week, plus other areas (ie. Ellicott City, MD - which just experienced a second "thousand year flood" in two years, with ~8" in a few hours) receiving locally-heavy rainfall in more isolated training rainstorms this weekend, some areas are well over a foot of rain in less than two weeks.

I'll need help with the dynamics, but from what I gather we will again have a nearly-stationary front in place, with the potential for a low to develop and ride along it. Combine this with impressive moisture from Alberto, and I'd imagine things could get ugly for certain areas.

Sterling NWS is so scared about the threat, they decided not to even include a long-range text disco. wink.gif
QUOTE
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&



Previous discussion mentioned this...
QUOTE
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is growing concern for repeated rounds of heavy rain in the
long term period. A cutoff upper low will drift southward toward the
Mid-Atlantic over high PWAT air (1.75+ inches). Although the exact
placement of surface features and resultant convection/heavier
pockets of rainfall remain uncertain at these longer time ranges,
upper lows stalled near or over the Mid-Atlantic atop anomalously
moist low-level air is favorable for heavy rain and flooding. The
concern is heightened given recent heavy rainfall.

The low pressure should drift seaward early next week leading to a
decreasing threat for rain.

&&


There's a sweet-spot near southern MD and DC-east on GFS, but I'm guessing that's not really modeling convective storms along the front, which will be where the real rain comes from?
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Undertakerson
post May 29 2018, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ May 29 2018, 04:31 PM) *
It appears that the ingredients for a potentially serious flood threat to areas of the Mid Atlantic are starting to come into play - yet again.

Obviously the risk is already high, with saturated soil and primary rivers levels still elevated from 6-8" of rain last week, plus other areas (ie. Ellicott City, MD - which just experienced a second "thousand year flood" in two years, with ~8" in a few hours) receiving locally-heavy rainfall in more isolated training rainstorms this weekend, some areas are well over a foot of rain in less than two weeks.

I'll need help with the dynamics, but from what I gather we will again have a nearly-stationary front in place, with the potential for a low to develop and ride along it. Combine this with impressive moisture from Alberto, and I'd imagine things could get ugly for certain areas.

Sterling NWS is so scared about the threat, they decided not to even include a long-range text disco. wink.gif
Previous discussion mentioned this...
There's a sweet-spot near southern MD and DC-east on GFS, but I'm guessing that's not really modeling convective storms along the front, which will be where the real rain comes from?

I mentioned in one of the LR threads that the situation for the first part of June is not one of warm and sunny, and certainly not summerlike. This threat is part and parcel with what I was referencing.

Take a look at the BSR charts and you'll see the threat of system after system within a persistent trough.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-06-June.htm

Attached Image


The GFS actually picked up on this fairly early and has not really let go of that notion. Though not a direct one to one correlation, that BSR signal and the med-LR modeling, leaves the area "exposed" to such a threat as seems to be in the offing.

If one follows the vorticity on the models, from today until ~8th or so, there is no shortage of available energy to move into the long wave trough(s) across the E. Given the saturation existing below Mason Dixon - and select areas N of there, any one of these that stalls is a problem. And, we see that at least the GFS does try to use a piece of energy that undercuts the combined vort of former Alberto and a N latitude shortwave, then combines with both of them and shoves a storm into the "sweet spot" for MidAtl mayhem.
Attached Image


Then, yet another system two days later - bigger at that
Attached Image



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Undertakerson
post May 29 2018, 03:58 PM
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Attached Image
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Undertakerson
post May 29 2018, 04:55 PM
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AFDCTP
5:39 EDT 05/29/2018


QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The sfc high moves away Wed so that the predominant srly/swrly
flow aloft moves scattered tstms storms generally to the north.
Coldest readings will be over the SW as thicker clouds and rain
showers impact there. Thus, the threat of a downpour is there,
but still not enough of a threat to post any kind of flood
watch.
Maxes on Wed will be a little cooler in the SE, but quite
a bit cooler in the NW. Maxes around 80F NW are still almost
10F above normal on Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect unsettled weather with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
as May ends and June begins. A surge of tropical moisture will
support some heavy downpours with high rain rates and increase
the risk of localized flash flooding. Given the lack of a
distinct focusing mechanism, pinpointing the highest threat
area remains somewhat uncertain at this time. The WPC excessive
rain outlook (ERO) highlights south-central PA in Slight Risk
on Thursday. A flash flood watch may be needed at some point
later this week.
Temperatures will be above normal especially
during the overnight/morning hours given the very muggy and
humid airmass that will be in place.

No sign of dry weather over the weekend. Considerable clouds and
damp conditions appear likely with daytime temperatures falling
back into the 60s Sunday. An upper low/trough should tend to
hold temperatures near to below average into early next week
.
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 29 2018, 06:33 PM
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Just noticed this thread might have to start it on the 31st rather then just the 1st tomorrow is expected to bring with it some convective sporadic activity with a more concentrated amount coming in thursday/thursday night as the front tries to lay down across the region and then again over the weekend.

Was talking with a colleague the biggest reason for concern over the next couple days is with Alberto off to our west the push of tropical air overriding the front region across the northern MA that will help ring out the moisture. Dew points are rather high right now in the low 70's across much of the area and it is just about to be june! This is stuff we see usually in july and august after we have built it up from rains and repeated heating periods. Low level flow out of the E and SE hitting and lifting over any boundary will just hurt situations.

This season so far has been very wet across much of the area fairly similar to 2011, wonder if we get another earthquake too!

Edit: Think thursday may feature a slight lee troughing situation with slow motion with steering currents up into the GL and Canada area just gotta watch things out.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: May 29 2018, 06:35 PM


--------------------
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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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2017/2018


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phillyfan
post May 29 2018, 07:46 PM
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I'l welcome the rain missed out on all of it this past weekend. It's the start of a dust bowl here, no rain since last Tuesday.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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EstorilM
post May 30 2018, 10:13 AM
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Thanks for the info UT and everyone else. I'm following this one closely, lost a couple bridges / crossings and trees in the area as it is.

Sterling has a more detailed disco out now, LOTS of information.

Can't believe the number of different players on the field here, basically all of which promote, initiate, or sustain a risk for heavy rain.

I don't recall a forecast for microbursts before blink.gif

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A boundary is slowly moving north along our CWA based on the
theta-e fields. Rain showers are moving across our CWA at this
time with cloudy skies, with some fog still observed mainly
along the I-95 corridor. Some fog may take longer to dissipate
as it will be trapped under the inversion.

A ridge axis will prevail across the eastern seaboard today. To the
west of the ridge, MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should be able to
develop by afternoon with marginal shear. Meanwhile, what was
Alberto will lift north, opening up a stream of tropical moisture.
Precip water will increase to 2 inches by this afternoon. Biggest
concern is that the rich moisture will be advected from the
southeast, providing an intersection between the flow pattern and
the Blue Ridge. The precise details of the convection are unclear,
but there is CAM evidence that showers/storms could be aligning, and
any storm will be a very capable rain producer. Will be issuing a
Flood Watch for a portion of Central Virginia as a result.

Will be increasing PoPs into the likely range for the Virginia and
Potomac Highlands counties this afternoon. East flow and lingering
low clouds will limit precip to chance metro Baltimore-Washington
today. However, as the theta-e ridge lifts north, will spread
likely PoPs across the rest of the area tonight.

Temperatures today will be a function of how long a site can hold
out before precip arrives. Lows will continue to be close to
dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The focus area (theta-e ridge axis) in Virginia Wed will shift into
Maryland Thursday. From a synoptic (and for that matter, mesoscale)
perspective, little would have changed. A tropical air mass with
rich moisture (dewpoints around 70F; PWAT aoa 2 inches) will be
streaming inland, interacting with the slight terrain from the Blue
Ridge. Antecedent conditions will be saturated. Sufficient
instability will be generated from daytime heating, coupled with
marginal shear. Showers/thunderstorms will be likely. Those storms
would be heavy rain producers.
Would not rule out a couple of wet
microbursts either.
In terms of Watches, will be taking it one day
at a time... but there is evidence that additional Flood Watches
will be likely.

By Friday, heights will be dropping as shortwave energy crosses the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and approaches the Mid Atlantic, supporting
a weak surface front. This will provide a focusing mechanism for the
continued moist/unstable airmass. Therefore, numerous showers/storms
likely once again...especially during peak heating...with heavy rain
producers expected.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Concern for heavy rain and flooding this weekend continues to grow.

An upper low will become cutoff over the Mid-Atlantic as it drifts
southward out of Pennsylvania. This is due in part to blocking
downstream over the Northwest Atlantic. Surface low pressure is
expected to develop over eastern Pennsylvania, then drift southward
in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains down a stalled front draped
over the area. This will enhance surface convergence and act as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, precipitable water
values will remain unusually high (1.75-2 inches)
, and warm-cloud
layers will be deep (10-12 kft), providing more than enough deep
moisture for heavy rainfall rates. With the cutoff low moving
overhead, steering flow will be very light, heightening the risk for
slow-moving convection.

As the low drifts further southward Saturday night into Sunday,
convective instability (CAPE) begins to wane, but frontogenetical
forcing in the 850-700 hPa layer strengthens. The threat at this
point should transition from rain of convective origin with isolated
very high rain rates, to more widespread steadier rain of stratiform
origin.
Rainfall rates will likely still be elevated, though, given
deep moisture lingering over the area.

Given recent heavy rains, the threat for flooding is even higher.

Individual model runs and ensemble members differ on the exact
placement and magnitude of precipitation amounts this weekend, but
generally agree on the idea of several inches
. But it should be
stressed to not focus too much on details of any one run of any one
model, and rather keep in mind the overall threat given the synoptic
pattern and antecedent conditions.

Model consensus suggest that the low pressure system/front and
attendant heavy rainfall risk should exit to the south and east by
early next week as high pressure noses in from southeastern Canada
and the eastern Great Lakes.

&&






QUOTE
.HYDROLOGY...
A prolonged period of high PWATs (1.75-2 inches) with deep warm
cloud layers (12-13+ kft) combined with a stalled front near or
over the Mid-Atlantic will lead to repeated threats of flooding
over the next several days. Please stay tuned for later watches
and possible warnings, and heed the advice of local officials.


This post has been edited by EstorilM: May 30 2018, 10:16 AM
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2018, 11:42 AM
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12z GFS is sopping wet for S/E PA - up to 6" of new QPF in the next 5 days

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...3012&fh=114
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phillyfan
post May 30 2018, 12:07 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 30 2018, 12:42 PM) *
12z GFS is sopping wet for S/E PA - up to 6" of new QPF in the next 5 days

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...3012&fh=114

Looks like most of that is Saturday and Sunday. I've been watering my garden plants the past few days. So any rain is welcome for me. Hopefully not extreme rainfall though. ohmy.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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EstorilM
post May 30 2018, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 30 2018, 12:42 PM) *
12z GFS is sopping wet for S/E PA - up to 6" of new QPF in the next 5 days

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...3012&fh=114

How good are the models at picking up any convective storms that NWS seems to be talking about firing up along the front? It doesn't seem to have the low either?

I'd imagine the dynamics involved (ie the disco I posted) make it tough to model. SREF doesn't have much either. 1.2" mean at IAD through the 2nd, but that cuts out whatever happens this weekend.
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 30 2018, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 30 2018, 12:42 PM) *
12z GFS is sopping wet for S/E PA - up to 6" of new QPF in the next 5 days

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...3012&fh=114


What an interesting run how we have some decent blocking taking place in the Atlantic and causing upstream issues back our way holding a ULL around for days and then what looks to be a powerhouse system going into central Canada as a 977mb storm on the last hour of the run. This is definitely something ill be holding onto for a little while how long these conditions have lasted this year. Things are just not on the move in the Atlantic lately.

QUOTE(EstorilM @ May 30 2018, 01:26 PM) *
How good are the models at picking up any convective storms that NWS seems to be talking about firing up along the front? It doesn't seem to have the low either?

I'd imagine the dynamics involved (ie the disco I posted) make it tough to model. SREF doesn't have much either. 1.2" mean at IAD through the 2nd, but that cuts out whatever happens this weekend.


Models can point out the idea of convection taking place but more often then not either have it in the wrong locals and underestimate the longevity of storms as well as not fully grasping the idea of what may truly happen with precip amounts. You gotta just take the info the model is showing as an idea of what could happen. Look for the key factors in which will cause the rain issues and see if they hold in place or move around and then use the ideas of a tropical airmass going over relatively different (cooler) airmass and pushing everything it has out of the clouds.

Also you dont necessarily have to have an area of low pressure to cause trouble a left over boundary and some spin, depending on how vigorous the energy is, will be more than enough to cause issues. Now after a storm complex forms you tend to get an area of low pressure that forms with the rain cooled airmass behind the storms other than that just gotta go with watching boundaries and leftover energy complexes to best help.

When we had the outlooks for a "derecho", ended up being a MCV, back in the beginning of the month for W VA, VA, and S MD region models struggled to grasp the complex and even high res models had issues and crashed the system quickly. It takes time to be able to understand a lot of it and how to spot it, trust me still learning everyday myself.

As for the days coming up we will definitely have to watch tomorrow afternoon time frame there may be a little more motion available so things wont sit, except maybe near terrain, can actually see where the best forcing is associated with a front across VA right now and should push through and probably expand later on today into the night as we move into MD and PA and NJ. Great example of a how models cant fully grasp the situation is 3km nam 12z today where the model doesnt even have the convection and rains in VA, believe it showed a shower or two in that region. Friday may feature something but will need to be watched looks like energy from a complex in the midwest will help re-fire activity and then we get into a stuck pattern for the weekend.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post May 30 2018, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 30 2018, 03:38 PM) *
What an interesting run how we have some decent blocking taking place in the Atlantic and causing upstream issues back our way holding a ULL around for days and then what looks to be a powerhouse system going into central Canada as a 977mb storm on the last hour of the run. This is definitely something ill be holding onto for a little while how long these conditions have lasted this year. Things are just not on the move in the Atlantic lately.
Models can point out the idea of convection taking place but more often then not either have it in the wrong locals and underestimate the longevity of storms as well as not fully grasping the idea of what may truly happen with precip amounts. You gotta just take the info the model is showing as an idea of what could happen. Look for the key factors in which will cause the rain issues and see if they hold in place or move around and then use the ideas of a tropical airmass going over relatively different (cooler) airmass and pushing everything it has out of the clouds.

Also you dont necessarily have to have an area of low pressure to cause trouble a left over boundary and some spin, depending on how vigorous the energy is, will be more than enough to cause issues. Now after a storm complex forms you tend to get an area of low pressure that forms with the rain cooled airmass behind the storms other than that just gotta go with watching boundaries and leftover energy complexes to best help.

When we had the outlooks for a "derecho", ended up being a MCV, back in the beginning of the month for W VA, VA, and S MD region models struggled to grasp the complex and even high res models had issues and crashed the system quickly. It takes time to be able to understand a lot of it and how to spot it, trust me still learning everyday myself.

As for the days coming up we will definitely have to watch tomorrow afternoon time frame there may be a little more motion available so things wont sit, except maybe near terrain, can actually see where the best forcing is associated with a front across VA right now and should push through and probably expand later on today into the night as we move into MD and PA and NJ. Great example of a how models cant fully grasp the situation is 3km nam 12z today where the model doesnt even have the convection and rains in VA, believe it showed a shower or two in that region. Friday may feature something but will need to be watched looks like energy from a complex in the midwest will help re-fire activity and then we get into a stuck pattern for the weekend.

Case in point - in the wake of Alberto. We saw a "wrinkle" in the isobars, not a full fledged LP down in Cuba - and it rained and rained on them as Al was approaching landfall. So, indeed, if PWAT is excessive (perhaps even only high DP) and any "wrinkle" (pressure fall) then it can, in fact, rain a ton.

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MD Blue Ridge
post May 30 2018, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 30 2018, 03:38 PM) *
What an interesting run how we have some decent blocking taking place in the Atlantic and causing upstream issues back our way holding a ULL around for days and then what looks to be a powerhouse system going into central Canada as a 977mb storm on the last hour of the run. This is definitely something ill be holding onto for a little while how long these conditions have lasted this year. Things are just not on the move in the Atlantic lately.
Models can point out the idea of convection taking place but more often then not either have it in the wrong locals and underestimate the longevity of storms as well as not fully grasping the idea of what may truly happen with precip amounts. You gotta just take the info the model is showing as an idea of what could happen. Look for the key factors in which will cause the rain issues and see if they hold in place or move around and then use the ideas of a tropical airmass going over relatively different (cooler) airmass and pushing everything it has out of the clouds.

Also you dont necessarily have to have an area of low pressure to cause trouble a left over boundary and some spin, depending on how vigorous the energy is, will be more than enough to cause issues. Now after a storm complex forms you tend to get an area of low pressure that forms with the rain cooled airmass behind the storms other than that just gotta go with watching boundaries and leftover energy complexes to best help.

When we had the outlooks for a "derecho", ended up being a MCV, back in the beginning of the month for W VA, VA, and S MD region models struggled to grasp the complex and even high res models had issues and crashed the system quickly. It takes time to be able to understand a lot of it and how to spot it, trust me still learning everyday myself.

As for the days coming up we will definitely have to watch tomorrow afternoon time frame there may be a little more motion available so things wont sit, except maybe near terrain, can actually see where the best forcing is associated with a front across VA right now and should push through and probably expand later on today into the night as we move into MD and PA and NJ. Great example of a how models cant fully grasp the situation is 3km nam 12z today where the model doesnt even have the convection and rains in VA, believe it showed a shower or two in that region. Friday may feature something but will need to be watched looks like energy from a complex in the midwest will help re-fire activity and then we get into a stuck pattern for the weekend.


Go on...


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 30 2018, 09:51 PM
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Well Charlottsville, VA has just been getting slammed over the past couple hours.

6 hour totals of about 1.55" fell in more like 2-3 hours

KCHO 302353Z 00000KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR BKN008 OVC012 23/22 A2997 RMK AO2 TSB24B46 CIG 004V009 SLP141 P0059 60155 T02280222 10283 20228 53001

KCHO 310053Z 07005KT 3SM -RA BR BKN005 BKN013 OVC033 23/22 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S SLP141 P0075 T02330222

KCHO 310153Z 09004KT 3SM VCTS +RA BR BKN009 BKN013 OVC020 23/22 A2998 RMK AO2 TSB19E34 SLP144 P0038 T02330222

Each hour after the 00z obs and this hour so far pushing just under 1"

Here is the FFW (5-9" in areas so far and not looking to stop):
CODE
Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1046 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

VAC003-540-310515-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180531T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA-
1046 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR IVY AND ADJACENT AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...

At 1042 PM EDT, Emergency Management reported ongoing water
rescues from flash flooding in Ivy.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Ivy and adjacent areas south
and west of Charlottesville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 9 inches have occurred with localized
amounts around 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected with 1
to 2 additional inches expected over the next hour. Streams and
creeks will continue to rise rapidly out of their banks.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Charlottesville, Crozet, Free Union, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ivy,
North Garden, Boonesville, Newcomb Hall, Flordon, Carrsbrook,
Barracks, Scott Stadium and White Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 7865 3795 7869 3813 7868 3825 7865
3825 7857 3824 7855 3822 7852 3817 7852
3810 7844 3804 7843 3794 7853

$$

BJL




--------------------
Tylor Cartter

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Millersville University


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 30 2018, 09:53 PM
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That area is sitting just north of the boundary that is still through much of southern and central VA.


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Tylor Cartter

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Millersville University


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Undertakerson
post May 31 2018, 05:33 AM
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I'm sure the Balt-DC corridor folks are NOT liking this


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MD Blue Ridge
post May 31 2018, 07:48 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 31 2018, 06:33 AM) *
I'm sure the Balt-DC corridor folks are NOT liking this


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not good bruh.

I cant believe its been 3-4 years in a row now with multiple stationary fronts in May. The fog, oh the never ending fog.

I see how Nor'easter loses his mind when the sun doesn't show. I'm glad he doesn't live in fog country. Starts to drive me crazy after awhile.


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snowdoug
post May 31 2018, 10:55 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 31 2018, 06:33 AM) *
I'm sure the Balt-DC corridor folks are NOT liking this


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You are correct sir. Ellicott City (central) Md. folks got hit hard last weekend. Reports of 8-10 inches in
3 hours there. Second major ("1000 year") flood there in 2 years. They are now in "cleanup" mode and
"its gonna rain" again.
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phillyfan
post May 31 2018, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 31 2018, 06:33 AM) *
I'm sure the Balt-DC corridor folks are NOT liking this


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Up here today would mark 9 straight days without measurable rainfall. I say bring on the rain, had a light shower this morning that barely wet the ground.

Also let's see how Nascar makes out this weekend at Pocono.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: May 31 2018, 11:04 AM


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bingobobbo
post May 31 2018, 12:03 PM
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This weather pattern in the Mid Atlantic reminds me of the stalled system that dumped 11 inches of rain on us in June 2006--most of it during the final week of the month, leading to severe flooding. Only five years later, we would be struck by the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee, with nine inches in three days.


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