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> June 1-? MidAtl/NE Stationary Front & Continued Flood Risk
Undertakerson
post Jun 13 2018, 05:02 PM
Post #161




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The way things seem to shake out in the long range, we may never get to remove the "?" in the title.

Just watched Weather World out of PSU and their Climate Watch (valid until 7/11) says "frequent fronts" - "no more than 4 days in a row with temps average+6".

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/climatewatch.html

LR modeling and even some of the OFM signals suggest the beat goes on for while longer yet.

Maybe we could just rename the title to "MidAtl/ NE" Story of the 'Summer'. tongue.gif
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telejunkie
post Jun 13 2018, 06:16 PM
Post #162




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Disappointing day as we had maybe 10 minutes of sprinkles around 1300, but otherwise nothing. Hoping something falls slightly significant falls in the next 24 hours. With daytime heating waning guessing those nice looking lines coming into western NY are going to dissipate in the next few hours. HRRR show the line holding together to give us something...see how HRRR does...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jun 13 2018, 06:22 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Undertakerson
post Jun 14 2018, 03:42 AM
Post #163




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Luzerne County in NEPA (Wilkes Barre region)

Attached Image


'Likely tornado' ravages Mundy Street stores
https://www.timesleader.com/news/local/7077...vastating-storm

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 14 2018, 03:44 AM
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STEVE392
post Jun 14 2018, 01:16 PM
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NWS confirms an EF2 struck the Wilkes-Barre area.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 14 2018, 03:23 PM
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https://www.timesleader.com/news/707943/ef2...h-130-mph-winds

For those who might want to read the local source news on the EF-2
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 14 2018, 03:47 PM
Post #166




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Attached Image
last night looking W of Scranton area
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Undertakerson
post Jun 14 2018, 03:49 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 14 2018, 04:47 PM) *

Attached Image
last night looking W of Scranton area

THAT is an awesome shot.
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 14 2018, 03:55 PM
Post #168




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 14 2018, 04:49 PM) *
THAT is an awesome shot.

I was taken from a live feed camera of the hill from one of the local news channels, I wish I new the source, got it from a friend I work with that lives in PA
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Undertakerson
post Jun 14 2018, 04:01 PM
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Kenny - can you authenticate that image in any way? I haven't come across it - private source perhaps?

Anyway, I found this to be a bit of stunner...

Wilkes Barre Twp EF-2

“I’ve been working in the national weather service for 27 years, mostly in New York and Pennsylvania and I’ve never seen damage like this before. It was pretty strong,” said Dave Nicosia, National Weather Service.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 14 2018, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 14 2018, 04:55 PM) *
I was taken from a live feed camera of the hill from one of the local news channels, I wish I new the source, got it from a friend I work with that lives in PA



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 14 2018, 05:01 PM) *
Kenny - can you authenticate that image in any way? I haven't come across it - private source perhaps?

Anyway, I found this to be a bit of stunner...

Wilkes Barre Twp EF-2

“I’ve been working in the national weather service for 27 years, mostly in New York and Pennsylvania and I’ve never seen damage like this before. It was pretty strong,” said Dave Nicosia, National Weather Service.

laugh.gif laugh.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 15 2018, 04:14 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 14 2018, 05:01 PM) *
Kenny - can you authenticate that image in any way? I haven't come across it - private source perhaps?

Anyway, I found this to be a bit of stunner...

Wilkes Barre Twp EF-2

“I’ve been working in the national weather service for 27 years, mostly in New York and Pennsylvania and I’ve never seen damage like this before. It was pretty strong,” said Dave Nicosia, National Weather Service.


Yea that was an impressive storm the overall radar appearance did not resemble much in the way of outside a normal TS, but those velocity scans tell the tale quite a impressive couplet. I have always wondered if the hill and valley regime can help enhance rotation in some locals, be destructive interference in other regions. I know from living up near allentown, in Macungie to be exact, we had some very interesting weather that occurred there many of times in the summer we had storms that got stuck in the valley. Probably the most tornado warned cells I had experienced in almost any area I have lived in E PA Lancaster is approaching second at this point. Havent heard of any deaths so that is always good, but just another reason we cant always just use radar representation and why velocity scans are really important.


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Millersville University


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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 15 2018, 04:35 AM
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I know this is more of a flood thread but some impressive heat coming in for sunday monday and tuesday (in some places for the last day) front should be nearby on the last day that it bisects the mid atlantic probably in its normal setup region of between NYC and DC for tuesday. Monday the hottest some places may see triple digits and high dp's probably some heat advisories and warnings being thrown out by saturday. Might have to watch out for complexes off in the midwest and GL region that may enter the region with a front closing in monday and tuesday and with temps in 90s and some high dp's if there isnt too strong of a cap we may have some issues mainly a possible wind situation but cant rule out hail and maybe a tornado.

Then we get back to a pattern it seems with the front hanging around nearby again.

Im off to the beach most of the weekend and wont be back until monday may check in if I see anything to eye opening that needs to be mentioned. Enjoy the heat!

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 15 2018, 04:36 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 15 2018, 07:29 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 15 2018, 05:35 AM) *
I know this is more of a flood thread but some impressive heat coming in for sunday monday and tuesday (in some places for the last day) front should be nearby on the last day that it bisects the mid atlantic probably in its normal setup region of between NYC and DC for tuesday. Monday the hottest some places may see triple digits and high dp's probably some heat advisories and warnings being thrown out by saturday. Might have to watch out for complexes off in the midwest and GL region that may enter the region with a front closing in monday and tuesday and with temps in 90s and some high dp's if there isnt too strong of a cap we may have some issues mainly a possible wind situation but cant rule out hail and maybe a tornado.

Then we get back to a pattern it seems with the front hanging around nearby again.

Im off to the beach most of the weekend and wont be back until monday may check in if I see anything to eye opening that needs to be mentioned. Enjoy the heat!

My concerns with this upcoming stretch are the similarities to the setup for the 2012 mid-atlantic derecho.
We have a ridge in place that is ushering in a very warm humid airmass (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday) We have energy from the former hurricane in the pacific that should be in the upper mid-west (I'm looking at this as a catalyst & and with the warm, humid nights I wouldn't expect any major decaying) And lastly, a cold front that's going to push this energy (steer it) east, southeast.
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yamvmax
post Jun 15 2018, 09:20 AM
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Jinxed myself. Clouds are socked in, and it's cool. Unreal.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 07:04 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 15 2018, 08:29 AM) *
My concerns with this upcoming stretch are the similarities to the setup for the 2012 mid-atlantic derecho.
We have a ridge in place that is ushering in a very warm humid airmass (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday) We have energy from the former hurricane in the pacific that should be in the upper mid-west (I'm looking at this as a catalyst & and with the warm, humid nights I wouldn't expect any major decaying) And lastly, a cold front that's going to push this energy (steer it) east, southeast.


Yea it looked a little more promising end of last week but looks like we get scattered storm activity with the FROPA tomorrow especially MD/PA border south and then our remnant hurricane energy looks to come through late wednesday/early thursday with most likely some nice rains as the ridging in the middle of the country tries to hold. Systems will crash into the ridge which could mean activity runs over the outer edge so we may be back and forth with some heat for a little, opportunities with those periods.



--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 08:10 AM
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3 km nam more vigorous with the potential of storm activity this afternoon especially from central PA then into eastern Pa HRRR says ehhh not really seeing much. I say we get some potential today but wouldnt happen until evening as the portion of the front nears the area and crosses through tomorrow. Maybe some large hail and possible wind with the amount of CAPE that will build today as well as the dry air aloft aiding in storm intensification.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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psu1313
post Yesterday, 09:32 AM
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The heat is on....whew!

A few things on my mind today.

1) I'm originally from Wilkes-Barre and my family still lives there and they've sent me some crazy photos that I will try to post later today from the tornado the other day. We're just lucky it came at 10pm and not around dinner time or that area would have been packed and I can't imagine everyone making it out alive from the damage that was shown.
2) It's gross out. 82 with a 71 DP. Models are showing in the 94-98 range today and the NWS just issued a heat advisory for DC.
3) Got Front? It seems to sag south of DC then back north, rinse and repeat. We'll see if we can get it to clear the area for Thursday and Friday but this is getting silly and it looks like moisture will return for the weekend.
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telejunkie
post Yesterday, 12:20 PM
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currently 87F outside with DP of 72F here...giving us the highest heat index of the year.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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telejunkie
post Yesterday, 12:28 PM
Post #179




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Looking promising to get some rain...been 2 weeks since my last measurable precip (June 4th).


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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bingobobbo
post Yesterday, 01:53 PM
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We are now up to 88 degrees at the airport--our highest since Aug. 13, 2016--and our warmest June day in five years (6/23/13). The record high of 92, from 1957, is a difficult one to equal, though. If we're going to miss it, I hope it is not be one degree.


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There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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